Mahagad(bad)bandhan!

WhatsApp with all its inherent strengths and weaknesses can be a good source of humour. In particular, in the election season, meme factories are running at full capacity churning out humorous content day in and day out. Among this was a clip – a gem of a creative idea that was going viral on social media few days back. Unlike the usual edited video clips, this was an animation of a WhatsApp group conversation. And here’s the best part. The group was titled “Mahagathbandhan” and showed an imaginary chat among its members who were supposed to be part of the Mahagathbandhan! As this clip was trending on social media and doing the rounds on various WhatsApp groups, I am sure you would have seen it. If not, do check out the clip here!

The humour and sarcasm in this clip notwithstanding, it exposes the fallacies of the Mahagathbandhan being propped up in just 2.5 mins! The idea for this Mahagathbandhan, which is a spectacle for few and spectre for others, I guess, germinated in May last year after the Karnataka polls. After losing the majority, Congress in a very alert move, decided to support Janata Dal (S) though they fought against each other in the elections. This move deprived BJP of forming the government in Karnataka even though, they were the single largest party with just few seats short of majority.

In Indian politics, if you ask me of one sight which is downright repulsive, it is of leaders of political parties of all hue showing up on stage clutching their hands and raising them as a symbol of being together. No other visual can be as dubious as this. The swearing-in ceremony of H.Kumaraswamy Gowda provided the schadenfreude moment for all those parties opposed to the rise of BJP in the country. So, we saw leaders as diverse as Kejriwal to Stalin to Mamata to Chandrababu to Rahul Gandhi to Mayawati to Pinnarayi Vijayan to Akhilesh coming in person to grace the occasion. That stage with the majestic Vidhan Soudha as the back drop on the 23rd May last year, would have given seed to the idea of the Mahagathbandhan to all parties who wanted to stop Narendra Modi on his tracks!

As it is usually the case, showing off a possibility is easy and making it possible is the onerous task! Unlike in the past, where parties come together in a pre-poll alliance or at times cobble up a post poll set up, the Mahagathbandhan is an epitome of conflict of interests among its constituents. Held together by one single-minded purpose of keeping BJP or rather Narendra Modi away from another term, there are conflicts galore!

By definition, the proposed Mahagathbandhan is supposed to be a rainbow coalition of all parties outside of the NDA who have one common enemy. A rainbow with all its different colours presents a pleasing sight! But a rainbow coalition doesn’t! It is obvious on paper that if they all come together and fight the BJP/NDA, thanks to the arithmetic of vote shares and the possibility of transfer of votes, the Mahagathbandhan will pose a very stiff challenge to the BJP in seats where they got the benefit of a split opposition in 2014. And thereby, this is a sure shot and obvious formula/strategy to stop Modi from getting a 2nd term.  While it may seem simplistic, in reality nothing can be more complex than the coming together of the Mahagathbandhan! And here’s why!

Let us for the moment keep aside the historical tussles and conflicts the parties in the Mahagathbandhan, had among each other and just focus on the issues of today.

Starting from the capital, BJP took all the seats in Delhi in 2014. But in the assembly polls that followed, AAP’s broom literally swept Delhi dislodging Congress after a 15 year stint! Sections of the Delhi Congress are still not able to come to terms with the scenario of fighting with a party which was instrumental in not just defeating them in Delhi but also creating that “Anti-Corruption” atmosphere in the entire country in the run up to the 2014 polls. Kejriwal went to the extent of saying that AAP will take all the seats in Delhi without Congress’ help but they needed the Congress in Haryana!

In Kolkatta, where TMC is ruling supreme and BJP is emerging as a strong challenger, a tie up of TMC, the Left and the Congress may dent BJP’s hopes of winning 7-8 seats in WB this time.  But then, the Left cannot stand the TMC and it is unimaginable for the workers to come together and work for a common cause.  So when the Left and the Congress are in an alliance, it remains to be seen if this will affect the TMC or the BJP more!

While in Bengal, the Congress and the Left are in it together, in Kerala though, the numero uno enemy for the Left is the Congress led UDF! In fact, this fault line got exposed after Congress announced that Rahul Gandhi would contest from Wayanad in Kerala in addition to Amethi! CPI(M)’s Prakash Karat was among the 1st to criticise this decision! He went on to say that the Left will work to defeat Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad!

There are such inconsistencies all over. In Maharashtra, the Congress and NCP are together for a long time, but in Gujarat, they are not. In the recent assembly polls in Telangana, TDP and the Congress fought together in an alliance but that couldn’t prevent the TRS winning the state by a landslide! After that spectacular defeat, TDP is silent about its tie up with the Congress for the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly polls in AP!

None of these confusions are more pronounced than in UP.  If BJP needs to be defeated in 2019, it should be defeated convincingly in UP. But even this overarching objective couldn’t stop BSP and SP from ditching the Congress for the Lok Sabha polls. So, finally that famous picture of Sonia Gandhi hugging Mayawati in glee during the swearing-in function of Kumaraswamy remained just a photo-op!

And one common theme which comes up as a predicament for all regional parties to be part of the Mahagathbandhan is their perception of Congress as a liability rather than an asset in the coalition! So, in all states where the regional parties are stronger than the Congress, they don’t want to have any truck with the Congress!

Now, I am sure that all these parties which are taking a stand based in their self-interests today, will have no hesitation in coming together and form a post poll Mahagathbandhan if they get an opportunity to take a shot at power! And one can imagine, with all the inherent conflicts and fault lines among themselves, the alliance can only run with confusion writ all over! As each and every coalition partner start pulling the cart based on their self-interests and not necessarily Nation’s interest, it is not difficult to visualise what will happen to governance!  What will start as a Mahagathbandhan will soon become a Mahagad(bad)bandhan! Don’t believe?  Check out what happened to governance between 1977 and 1980, when we had the 1st Mahagadbadbandhan of sorts!

Postscript: Title courtesy my friend and an avid political watcher, Mukund Sampath who called Mahagathbandhan as a possible Mahagad(bad)bandhan in one of our chatsand that prompted this post!

Toon courtesy: Satish Acharya

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Time to end the Post Poll Alliance Plot!

Ever since H.D. Kumaraswamy became the Chief Minister of Karnataka through a post poll alliance between his party JD(S) and the Congress, he and Karnataka have been in the news, mostly for all the wrong reasons. From the wrangling over members of the cabinet, allocation of ministries and decision over waiving of farm loans, the so called “Unconditional” support of the Congress to the JD(S) has come with the “Conditions Apply” water mark! This is a coalition government formed after elections where, the Chief Minister in his own admission is at the mercy of the Congress which won more seats in the assembly and one that he fought a bitter battle against, during the elections. This has brought to the fore the moral legitimacy of a post poll alliance and the raison d’etre for this post!

This sort of a post poll arrangement is not the first and constitutional provisions remaining the same, will not be the last either. In the last few years, we have had similar post poll alliances being cobbled up in Maharashtra between the BJP and Shiv Sena and in Jammu & Kashmir between the BJP again and the PDP. In Bihar, we had the pre-poll alliance partners JD (U) and RJD coming together, winning, forming a government successfully only to fall apart in just under 2 years. The same JD (U) has now got into an alliance with the BJP, which it fought intensely against during the elections and is now running a coalition government! One glance at the political situation in all these states presents a similar and not so encouraging picture. Of an unease, under the veneer of partnership.  Of open differences in day-to-day functioning, even after coming to power with an understanding of a common minimum programme.

In Maharashtra, though the coalition government has been in power for more than three years now, there have been serious differences between the BJP and Shiv Sena on the vision, programmes and the idea of development.  The Shiv Sena opposes these in the media for public consumption while continuing to be a part of the very cabinet which takes these decisions. There cannot be a bigger deceit on the voting public than this!

In Jammu & Kashmir, the coming together of BJP and PDP was itself a very strange occurrence. Here were two parties who ended up with complimenting geographical presence (PDP in the valley and BJP in Jammu, Ladakh area) but with different ideological outlook to the state. Not surprising that decisions related to governance like handling of militancy and response to the ground situation,… were viewed through their respective ideological prisms and were subjected to pulls and pressures.  Not surprising again, that the alliance finally broke off last week!

In Bihar also, we keep hearing of murmurs of rumblings under the still surface of the Kosi River!

In all these states, it is indeed a legitimate democratic process that threw up hung verdicts which essentially reflected the mood of the public. And hence it may appear that the formation of a coalition government though based on a post poll alliance, is indeed a reflection of the rather muddled mandate. And in that sense one could argue that, democracy won at the end.

And as Indians we have still not forgotten the many short stint governments and Prime Ministers we had in the mid 90’s all thanks to post poll plots! Have we?

 If democracy is just about free and fair elections and installing “a” government as an end result of that process, probably, we should not grumble much about how governments function once they come to power. However, I do believe that democracy is not just about the election process but also about the outcome of the process as a reflection of the collective will of people as demonstrated by the election results and the ensuing governance.

From that point of view, is a post poll alliance, where 2 or more parties who contested and fought against each other bitterly before the elections come together and form a coalition government, fair? Is that arrangement a fair representation of the mandate or the collective will of the people? Is it not fooling the voters if, the party against whom you raised a stink over issues like corruption during the election campaign is now part of your government, for example? And there are more legitimate questions like these.

In a pre-poll alliance, parties “come together” probably with a common ideological plank or against a common enemy or some common promise or premise. This is transparent to the people when they go to vote. In a post poll scenario, parties “cobble up together” an alliance.  And there is a big difference between the two!

Apart from the moral issue of a post poll alliance government going against the will of the people, the other obvious issue with it is the thriving of “resort politics” – a phrase today associated with deal cutting and other “Direct Benefit Transfers”! Today, we are a witness to all this happening before us but have to be silent because post poll alliances are deemed acceptable under the constitution! Even the Supreme Court expressed its inability to term post poll alliances as invalid!

One of the main argument in favour of post poll alliances is that, today the constitution doesn’t dis-allow such an arrangement. Has the time not come to look at reviewing this aspect of it and make amends?

One of the other vocal arguments that is used to legitimise post poll alliances is saving public exchequer on expenses over another round of elections. For parties who raise this, it is just a convenient argument to come to power somehow.  In the case of a hung verdict, it is clear that the people are not convinced of the credentials of a single party or a pre-poll alliance. Giving an opportunity to a post poll alliance is the biggest charade that can be inflicted on the public.

If one looks at all angles, post poll alliances don’t check any of the boxes in public’s favour in a democracy. And it’s time as a country we have a debate around it and look at other alternatives of handling a hung verdict than the post poll plots which parties draw up.

Toon courtesy: Satish Acharya