NDA

Index of Opposition Disunity!

These days, as we approach the next Lok Sabha election which is exactly only a year away, there is much chatter about plans and strategies to dislodge the BJP Government led by Narendra Modi at the centre.  Among various ideas, the key strategy being talked about is around mounting a United Opposition against the BJP which seems to be the only way to defeat the Modi Sarkar considering its reigning popularity among the majority of the population. Now while this sounds logical and easy on paper, many challenges and tricky situations emerge when trying to put this into practice.  In terms of an approach, what are the options for the opposition?

Option one is a United opposition which means the coming together of Congress and Regional parties with a pre-poll alliance to take on the BJP. This would mean a rainbow coalition of more than 10 parties. Ideally, if this works, there will be only one main opposition candidate against the BJP in almost all the LS Seats. The problem in this proposition starts with who will head this coalition. With Lok Sabha Polls increasingly becoming presidential, the voter would like to know who is she voting for, as the Prime Ministerial candidate. While for the BJP, it is very obvious that it is Narendra Modi, for a grand opposition alliance, it is a question mark.

In order to fix this conundrum, will all the regional parties accept a Congress leader as the PM candidate? This is almost a certain no-go considering the state of the Congress presently. Will the Congress accept any other regional party leader as a PM candidate now without knowing what will be the electoral success of that leader’s party now? Can all the regional parties come to an understanding on “a” particular regional leader without knowing how many seats his or her party will win?

Also, putting together a coalition means Congress and other parties coming to a compromise on the seats they will contest. Any arrangement that is thrashed out in such a compromised manner will only put the local party workers’ interests at peril. For example, in West Bengal, Congress would have to toe the line of the TMC and agree not to contest in most seats and also work for TMC candidates in those seats.  In Delhi where the AAP came to power after dislodging the Congress, Congress has to play second fiddle to the AAP.  There are many other states in this situation.  This naturally dwarfs the interests of the local state leaders whose ambitions need to curb in order to push the cause of the other party.

It is also difficult for regional parties to convince their core voters of a diluted ideological position like what we are seeing recently with the Savarkar remarks controversy. Both Uddhav Sena and NCP have rushed to not only distance themselves from Rahul Gandhi’s acerbic comment on Savarkar but they have also gone on to condemn it. BJP will only add pour more oil into such fire.

A rag-tag coalition of parties with divergent positions coming together just to defeat the BJP in the 2024 elections is the kind of free fodder, the BJP would feast on to build a narrative of the tyranny of coalitions. An era of a very convoluted coalition politics that bogged India before Vajpayee became the PM in 1998. I already saw some short videos being circulated by the BJP on social media taking potshots at the ills of a multi-party coalition without a clear face.

Finally, in New India, no other sight is more repulsive than the sight of leaders of political parties of all hues clutching and holding their hands up on stage like the one we saw last in 2018 in Bengaluru during the swearing-in of H. Kumaraswamy as the Chief Minister of a post-poll alliance in Karnataka.

The second option therefore would be not to have a full-fledged pre-poll single alliance but for Congress with its like-minded allies and regional parties to contest based on what they feel as strengths. Now, this is similar to the situation we had in 2019 and we all saw what happened. In BJP Vs Congress head-to-head seats, Congress gets decimated. In BJP Vs Regional party situations, in some states like Delhi, UP, Bihar etc… BJP gets the benefit of a fragmented opposition and in a few states where the regional party is strong like WB, Odissa and TN, they win big.

The third approach could be to have a tactical state-wide understanding depending upon who is stronger between the Congress and regional parties. Now, this approach is required only in states like West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, AP, Telangana, Odisha and Kerala. This means a compromise both on the part of Congress and the respective regional parties not to contest in these states if the other one is stronger and also work towards transferring their votes diligently to the other. As I understand, this was the approach advocated by Prashant Kishor before he moved to Bihar on his Jan Suraaj Yatra. However, this approach also has the same challenges when implemented at the ground level. For example, in a state like Kerala where the Left and the Congress have always been on the opposite side of the fence, will one party give up its position in the state just to defeat the BJP at the Centre?

From the above scenarios, it is clear that BJP is in a pole position as far as the 2024 elections are concerned.  If you are a strategist for the opposition, what would you advocate?

It may be a good idea for Rahul Gandhi to embark on another yatra namely ‘Opposition Jodo Yatra’. This need not be a Padayatra of course but air sorties to state capitals that matter first to convince the respective regional party leaders to come to a tactical tie-up with the Congress and then the respective state leaders of the Congress to accept a short-term compromise and work towards defeating the BJP as described in the third option.  Easier said than done.  But, may be worth a try. Before Prannoy Roy the original proponent of the Index of Opposition Unity (IOU) concept comes up with the Index of Opposition Disunity as the defining concept for the next few decades!

Yet, will that be still enough to stop the BJP from returning to power in 2024? That’s for another blog.

Pic Courtesy: The Wire

NEP 2020 – Not a T20 in the making!

Two weeks ago, when I wrote a post that “Marks do matter”, I didn’t realise that a New Educational Policy (NEP) was soon going to be unveiled. The post was purely for the season.  If you haven’t read it, please read here. There was an overwhelming response to the blog with many readers agreeing to my proposition that, in the present scheme of things in India at least, marks do matter. I also understood that it is rather a grudging acknowledgement under the circumstances and not a wholehearted endorsement with glee. Most of us, having been on the rough end of the mark stick some time or the other in our lives, have been yearning for a different system of evaluation for the longest time.

Ergo, when the NEP was announced by the government last week, my primary interest was to see how it handles the “marks” conundrum. NEP has been in the works for a long while. I am aware that even among the sympathisers of BJP and Narendra Modi, there was a tinge of regret and disappointment about the government not making any progress on the education front during its first term. Frankly, I haven’t read the full policy document and have just read the highlights few times over. It is quite technical and without the domain knowledge, I haven’t managed to fully comprehend the implications of some of the proposals in the long term. But from what I read, see and hear, seems it is a well-intentioned policy framework and if followed through with meticulous execution, our country may be a different place in the next two to three decades.

Having said that, I would like to focus on few issues which bother me as far as education system in India is concerned and how this NEP tackles them. First, the issue of many education boards.

“Your daughter is in which class?

6th Std.

Which board?

CBSE. What about your son?”

This conversation must be very familiar to many. The latest class divide in urban/semi urban middle class society these days is manifested in the board of the schools in which children study. In the 70’s and 80’s, when I was growing up, this was not a talking point at all. Most of us were going to schools affiliated to State board with some going to CBSE board schools. However, post liberalisation and rise of aspirations and income levels in general, there is a clamour to put children in schools which are not State board schools. So, while CBSE and ICSE board schools are the ones which are sought after, the newest craze in town are the IB (International Board) schools. I am aware of the scorn State board students are subjected to, when they go for higher studies. The question is “Do we need different boards” that sow the seeds of a divide and discrimination in the society. Is there a case for a country wide uniform system of education whereby all students go through the same system without differentiation?

This is a tricky question to answer. At the outset, it may seem that the answer is obvious i.e. to have a uniform system that doesn’t differentiate and doesn’t end up discriminating students. In Japan, the Japanese rue the very standardised and uniform education system they have in their country. One of my Japanese friends use to say that their schools and colleges were like assembly lines. The output in terms of specifications are exactly similar because of which there is no diversity of thinking or ideas in Japan. So, the answer I believe is not in just one common board which has a standardised syllabus across the country. But continuing the existing system of different boards with a wide gap in standards and levels may not be the answer as well.

I looked at the NEP for its take on the boards. Education being in the concurrent list, first of all there cannot be a single National umbrella structure that can be implemented across the country. So, the NEP talks about the need for each board to ensure equivalence of academic standards and text books with a common core material and supplementing with local flavour and context and so on. I believe it is a via media solution to retain diversity with some commonality. In addition to this, one key point according to me, is the compensation of teachers and staff in State board schools. In order to ensure there is no discrimination in output (quality of students), there should not be discrimination in input (salary levels of staff).

The second issue is regarding the medium of instruction in schools. The NEP proposes that the medium of instruction until 5th standard and preferably till 8th standard and beyond will be preferably home language/Mother tongue/local language. It was later clarified that it is not a mandate but is left to the states to imbibe this guideline. English medium Vs regional language in today’s aspirational India is again a symbol of class divide in the society. In one of my earlier posts (Read here) I had argued that it is time to make English the common medium of language across the country. English may be a foreign language but it is the unifying language in India today. Like it or not, English has become the door opener for opportunities. While I agree that it is good to ensure a child’s proficiency with her mother tongue, making it the medium of instruction may be counterproductive.

And lastly, coming back to the “Marks system”, the NEP doesn’t seem to provide any alternatives but for changing the grading system so that the final board exam is not a make or break effort for the student. It says, “Board exams will be made easier, as they will test primarily core capacities, competencies rather than months of coaching or memorization.” It also talks about a more comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach to student assessments.  This is very good in intent and I think all parents and children would be keen to see how this works in real life.

Based on what I have comprehended so far, the New Education Policy signals a clear intent to bring in a paradigm shift in education in India.  It aims for a long term directional shift and so is a test match and not a T20 in the making!  Now, the devil is in the execution.

Pic credits: The Hindu

COVID-19 aftermath – Time to revive two flagship programmes of GOI

If there is one quote which has been oft repeated by commentators of all hue in the past few weeks as the world grapples with the COVID-19 crisis, it is this. Winston Churchill’s “Never let a good crisis go to waste”! As India locked itself down in its fight against Corona Virus, the lessons for future are many. And indeed it must learn those and never let this crisis go to waste, once things settle down. In India, we have a tendency to move on quickly from natural disasters and other calamities without learning the lessons and putting them to practice for future.

In the context of COVID-19, once we are out of the crisis completely, two programmes of the central government which were launched with much fanfare in the 1st term of Modi Sarkar but which lost steam or didn’t take off the way they were envisaged come to mind. It’s time to revive them and re-launch them with added rigour. And in the aftermath of the Corona virus pandemic, I do believe that the chances of them now doing well have got better.

On the 15th of August, 2014, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, it caught the imagination of the public by and large. “A clean India would be the best tribute India could pay to Mahatma Gandhi on his 150 birth anniversary in 2019,” declared the Prime Minister. This was the first time, cleanliness entered public discourse since Independence. Immediately after the launch, there was an air of excitement and flurry of activities. I remember voluntary groups and public carrying out weekend shramdaan to clean up the neighbourhood. Celebrities did their bit by participating in symbolic photo ops with brooms to spread the message of cleanliness.

What started off very well, soon started losing steam with the typical Indian attitude of laxity creeping in, after the initial enthusiasm.  From the government perspective, we also saw that Swachh Bharat Abhiyan from the original goal of a “Clean India” by 2019, moved to making India “Open defecation free” by 2019!  So, accordingly the focus turned towards building toilets across the country and giving the poor access to toilets even in the remotest of villages.  In his address to the parliament in Jan 2019, the President announced that over 9 crore toilets were constructed across the country under Swachh Bharat Abhiyan program and that the coverage of rural sanitation went up from less than 40% in 2014 to 98% in 2019.  While these are commendable data points, we were not close to becoming a clean and hygienic country by Oct 2019, as envisaged by the Prime Minister when he kicked off the programme.

While not taking any credit away from the government for pursuing this initiative, I have always maintained that Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is not about cleaning and more cleaning but, reducing the need for cleaning in the first place. That essentially means developing instinctive disciplinary traits and attitude toward cleanliness like for example, the Japanese.  This calls for a huge attitudinal change among us as we are by and large happy to keep our own four walls clean while not being concerned about littering in public.

It is undisputable that COVID-19, in the last few weeks has increased awareness of self-hygiene as well as community hygiene in a big way in India. Use of sanitisers hitherto seen as a “NRI tantrum” while in India, has now got into the collective conscience of India. I do believe that thanks to social media like WhatsApp, the ills of a pandemic like Corona Virus have reached the nook and corner of India and hence messages concerning the need to maintain cleanliness may be received with more seriousness than before.  By the end of 2019, looking at the way the programme sort of petered out, I concluded that a “Clean India” may be a few decades away when the current student generation with more awareness from childhood stages take to public cleanliness more seriously.  However, now I feel that COVID-19 has given us a great opportunity to reach our goal of a “Clean India” probably a few years earlier and it is important that we as a country seize this opportunity.

Weeks or months later when we get over the COVID-19 crisis, the governments – Centre, States, local municipalities and panchayats should step up the gas on Swachh Bharat Abhiyan once again.  The government must use all the communication machinery at its disposal to build up on the Corona Virus messaging of “washing hands” to start talking about keeping one’s surrounding absolutely clean and safe to prevent further epidemics like this. We should move from friendly nudges to slapping heavy fines for offences like littering in the open, urinating on the side of the roads, Open defecation when toilets are available in the vicinity and spitting on the roads and walls. We must remember that making India a “Clean India” is not just the look out or job of the government of the day but is in the hands of the public. So, as a society, we must not let this good crisis go waste on the hygiene front and make our march towards a “Clean India”!

“Make In India” is another flag ship programme launched by Modi Sarkar way back in September 2014 with a view to give boost to the manufacturing sector in India with an eye on creating lakhs of jobs. Initially conceived to cover 16 industries, the scope was expanded later to include 25 identified industries. Five years hence, when one looks at the outcome of the programme, it’s a mixed bag. “Make In India” has seemingly done well in mobile phone and allied manufacturing with around 268 units producing phones and related accessories in India as of November 2019. This was just 4 in 2014. We are now the 2nd largest manufacturer of mobile phones in the world.  But beyond mobile phone manufacturing, other electronic manufacturing has not taken off in India as yet.  We are nowhere close to the objective set of making manufacturing contribute to 25% of our GDP. With the economic slowdown in the last few quarters and the disruption due to COVID-19, the outlook for manufacturing looks even bleaker.

This is where, COVID-19 could provide a window of opportunity to India in next five to ten years. COVID-19 which erupted from China with the industrial province of Wuhan as the epicentre, has ended up disrupting the global economy in more ways than one. When the virus spread was around China in the month of February, the talk was about how the global supply chains particularly in the Automotive, Pharma and electronics sectors have been disrupted. With the contagion now spreading alarmingly all over the world, COVID-19 could emerge as the single largest cause and effect on the global economy in many years. It is estimated that the global GDP could shrink by 2% this year.

The COVID-19 crisis has hastened the shift of global supply chains out of China actively a move, which gathered momentum in the height of US-China trade war last year and increasing labour costs in China over the last few years.  As we saw in reports, the Japanese government has announced support to companies shifting production from China back to Japan. Korean companies are reportedly exploring options with India to expand their capacities. The US and EU will eventually follow suit.

For India, this is a great opportunity to tap into this shift out of China.

It is good to see the Indian government sensing the opportunity and looking to further the cause of Make in India. Just recently, we saw a package of incentives being announced for the Electronics manufacturing industry with a focus not just on finished goods production but also developing downstream production units. Similarly package was cleared by the cabinet on the 21st March for incentivising production of chemicals and raw materials that go into bulk drugs production.  Initially these moves may help in softening our own dependence on China for imports of electronics and pharma goods but over a period of time will give a boost for exports once the ecosystem in put in place. So far so good. But these are not enough. Making India a part of global supply chains requires a well-co-ordinated (between Centre and states) 360 degree action plan to launch Make in India 2.0 in the light of COVID-19 that covers diplomatic, economic, commercial, human resources and even marketing front. This also requires changes in some of our laws (for example land acquisition) that can make ease of doing business a reality on the ground.

COVID-19 crisis is panning out in front of us as we speak. While we fight the health and immediate economic after effects of the same, it’s time to work on re-launching “Swachh Bharat Abhiyan 2.0” and “Make in India 2.0” in a couple of months and not let this crisis go waste.

Dear India, make 2021 the next 1991!

Book Review – 2019 How Modi Won India!

In this 201st post of mine for this blog, I thought of doing a review of the book ‘2019 How Modi Won India’, written by ace newsman Rajdeep Sardesai which hit the shelves a few days ago. This book is almost like a sequel to Rajdeep’s very first book, which he wrote after 2014 General elections. Titled ‘2014: The Election That Changed India’, it was engrossing from start to finish, peppered with personal anecdotes not just about that election but around events that happened right from the time he started his journalistic career way back in the 90’s. So, it is with heightened expectations that one sat down to read this new book to gain insights into the 2019 elections, hitherto not seen in public domain. At the onset, after finishing the book, I must say that I was not disappointed.

As introduction, Rajdeep gives an overview of how Modi managed to win India in 2019. He attributes the victory to 13 Ms (Modi, Machine, Media, Money, Messaging, Marketing, Mobile, Middle Class, Millennials, Majoritarianism, Muscular Nationalism, Masood Azhar and Mahagathbandhan), 2 Ws (Welfarism and WhatsApp) and a GK (Gharib Kisan). Frankly, I think that many of the factors here are double counted and one can actually put it down to set of fewer unique Ms.  For example, Messaging is part of Marketing. Welfarism is linked to Gharib Kisan. Muscular Nationalism can be clubbed with Masood Azhar. Mobile and WhatsApp are basically the same.

Having set the context, the usual method is to go about detailing all these factors one by one. Thankfully, Rajdeep avoids that route as that would have been less interesting and by now, we have read quite a bit about most of these factors. Instead, Rajdeep chronicles in detail, with back stories, the key events right from the swearing in ceremony in 2014 leading up to the last day of polling in 2019, which had some impact on how Modi eventually won India in 2019.  I liked the way Rajdeep segues from one chapter to another with a hook to end the chapter to the upcoming topic, a style which he used very well in his first book as well!

In his 2014 book, Rajdeep had shared many conversations which he had with political leaders including Narendra Modi when he was the Gujarat Chief Minister throughout his career, to drive home his points. However, this book is less anecdotal and more of research and reportage. It has very few references of conversations with leaders from the current political regime except for late Arun Jaitley with whom the author enjoyed good chemistry. Rajdeep makes it a point to inform us that in spite of being a leading prime time anchor, he still spends the mornings often at the Parliament and so one did hope to read more personal anecdotes and conversations with key players. But that is not to be.

The author himself admits with a tinge of regret that he has not been able to speak to the Prime Minister since May 2014 and probably he is now become a persona non grata in the current regime. This sort of re-affirms the now touted model of media management of the Modi regime.  That of cultivating its own set of favourites and maintaining a report card on “positive” and “negative” journalists. Rajdeep says this is very much akin to the “Big Boss” TV Serial style where everything and anything is watched and accounted for. Being tight lipped and catching the media unawares of what’s in the offing, most of the time is also part of this method.

As an example, on Demonetisation, Rajdeep candidly admits that he and his team did not have a whiff of what the Prime Minister was going to address the nation on 8th November, 2016. He had actually lined up a few defence experts for the prime time discussions assuming that the address was related to some strike on Pakistan!  There have been other instances too where, the media did not get a wind of what’s cooking within the Modi Sarkar.

In a chapter wholly on media titled ‘Prime Time Prime Minister’, in addition to detailing how Modi and the government ensures maximum eye balls for themselves, Rajdeep also turns into a strident media critique, a hat we see him don often these days! Rajdeep tears apart his own fraternity which he feels has lost its moral compass and yearns for a time when media would not just be a lap dog for the government in power.

If 2014 was all about a one man army called Modi, in this book, Rajdeep makes a distinction. BJP is now not just about Modi but, Modi and Amit Shah, the Jodi No.1 of Indian politics. Even the cover design of this book drives this point featuring both Modi and Shah prominently.

The author credits the messaging strategy of BJP as one of the key elements that drove its victory. Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar! So we should take it that BJP’s messaging was on point. However, I thought that compared to 2014 when a single point message of Abki Baar Modi Sarkar was flogged and many micro campaigns were woven around this central message, in 2019, BJP dabbled with different messages lime Modi hai to Mumkin hai, Main bhi Chowkidar and so on even till the initial rounds of elections till it boiled down on Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar theme.

In the book, Rajdeep claims that the Prime Minister who has a penchant for coming up with interesting acronyms had come up with another one – JAM to convey the coming together of Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar and Mobiles. As per me, the phrase ‘JAM trinity’ was first used by the then Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian in the Economic Survey report of 2014-15.  This was then widely adopted by the Government and the media to talk about this phenomenon which was bringing a huge change in the livings of the marginalised.

If you were Rajdeep and one who felt that you have fallen out of favour with this regime, you would be tempted to write a book that is more of an eulogy of the current regime and in particular of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. After all, Modi, Shah and the BJP did win the elections with an emphatic margin and there were enough reasons to talk high of. To his credit, Rajdeep does a fine balancing act, commending BJP, Narendra Modi and other leaders where required and equally being critical where he feels so. In fact, you get the impression that he has tried hard to present himself as a “Neutral” journalist, a species which is almost extinct these days. So, in the entire book, the writing yo-yo’s between “on the one hand, on the other hand”, “this and having and said that” format!

Far away from what is shown on TV and social media, the book gives fascinating insights of how the BJP election machinery works. The many faceless back room boys who take up tasks in mission mode and ensure they are accomplished, the many micro programmes which the party undertook at booth level and so on to win the 2019 elections emphatically have been outlined in detail. It is clear that it is these micro tactics more often than not are missed by journalists when they do ground reports during election times because of which they get the extent of the ‘hawa’ wrong.

While on this, I would have liked if Rajdeep had spent a chapter on the whole business and dynamics of opinion/exit polls in India. These continue to be an enigma. Even in the run up to the 2019 polls, media kept saying that it was a “wave less” election and it being “a sum total of 545 individual battles”! Most of the opinions based on ground reports suggested that BJP would be short of majority and have to tie up with new allies to form the government. What happened eventually though was a bigger win than 2019 for BJP and NDA which none predicted!

If you are a news buff and a current affairs watcher, ‘2019 How Modi Won India’ is a must read for not just the political stories but the granular detailing on what goes behind an election win in India!

Post Script: While talking of the many M’s that mattered, Rajdeep prefaces this book with the narration of another M – Madison Madness. It’s more like the author’s Mea Culpa (there you go, another M!) for what happened way back in September 2014 when he got involuntarily involved in fist fights with frenzied Modi supporters in Manhattan! (The “M” Madness doesn’t seem to end!)

2019 How Modi Won India

Rajdeep Sardesai

HarperCollins Publishers India

355 Pages, Rs 699

Nationalistic Congress Sena!

Indian politics in the past seven decades has seen bizarre things. But nothing more bizarre than this. It must be the first time that a pre-poll alliance, after emerging victorious with a clear majority is not forming the government in a show of one-upmanship! When the wrangling between Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena was going on a week ago over the Chief Minister’s post essentially, there was a post which was going viral on social media which said that it is Shiv Sena’s “Grim Trigger Strategy” at play. As per that post, this concept is explained as a special case of non-cooperative strategy in Game Theory, in which co-operation will leave everyone better off and non-cooperation will leave everyone worse off.  Back in 2014 after the Maharashtra state elections, I had alluded to Game theory at play again between BJP and Shiv Sena in my post titled “The Maha Gam(e)ble”! (read here).

The bottom line is, one of the oldest allies in the NDA namely the BJP and Shiv Sena, in the past 6 years, have contested together and stayed together (2014 LS polls), have contested separately but formed government together in a post poll alliance (2014 State polls) and have contested together and not forming the government together (2019 State polls)! This clearly indicates the fragile nature of the relationship between the two allies! Even while being an ally of the BJP, Shiv Sena has been the most non-cooperative and virulent critic of the Modi government since 2014!

It is not clear what the understanding was between the two parties when they sat together and decided to contest the Lok Sabha and then later the state elections together. Notwithstanding the same, having gone to the electorate and sought votes in an alliance and now not honouring the mandate, after the winning a fairly clear verdict in favour of the alliance is a mockery of the elections! It is taking the voters who voted in favour of the alliance for a wonderful ride.

If one looks back at the performance of Shiv Sena in the past many years, it is obvious that the Sena is on a slide. It terms of vote share, in the recently concluded elections, it is back to the 16.4% levels which it had way back in 1995!  On the contrary, BJP’s vote share has grown to 25.75 % levels from under 13% in the same period. Even in the last BMC elections, BJP stormed the citadel of Shiv Sena and got almost the same number of seats as Shiv Sena.  This explains the nervousness in its belly!

As per me, the performance of BJP in the BMC polls should have rung the warning bells for Shiv Sena.   Between BJP and Shiv Sena, there is a clear overlap of the vote bank. In the past, BJP was more concerned about the centre and hence was okay to accede more space to Shiv Sena in the state polls while pitching for a larger space in the Lok Sabha polls. While BJP has been growing its presence in the centre, the problem is, Shiv Sena did not do much to improve its presence within the state in the last 10 years! This is where the crux of the problem lies for Shiv Sena.

Here, ideally the Sena could have taken a leaf out of the books of a similar regional parties like the DMK or ADMK. These parties would always strike alliances with parties in the centre for the Lok Sabha polls essentially based on their strength within the state. While remaining in an alliance, they never let the so called “National party” grow beyond them in the state at any point in time. This means that the National parties, whether it is the Congress or the BJP had to play subservient to the regional parties in the alliance.

In the case of Shiv Sena, due to its own follies, it never grew its presence beyond its conventional vote bank. And in that, it let the BJP erode its core base as well!  When Shiv Sena got their first opportunity to form a government way back in 1994 in alliance with the BJP, it messed it up royally. The Chief Minister was openly dubbed as a puppet in the hands of the then Shiv Sena Chief Bal Thackeray, who took glee in letting everybody know that the remote was always in his hands. The Chief Minister was changed interim and it was not long before that the government was thrown out of power. The backlash was so high that even during the emergence of the NDA and Vajpayee at the Centre could not help the NDA in Maharashtra!

In the past, when parties after having fought against during the elections came together to form the government in a post poll alliance, I have called it a blot on democracy. And we found such similar instances very often in the last 5 years when both BJP, Congress and regional parties were all involved in such post poll alliance arrangements just to be in power! As we saw in Jammu and Kashmir first and later in Karnataka such opportunistic tie-ups remained such and never lasted too long. At the end of the day, the contrasting world views, ideologies, pulls and pressures among these parties cut short the life of such governments. The voters have been repeatedly left high and dry with Maximum filibuster and Minimum Governance in such spells!

It is extremely unfortunate for the voters of Maharashtra who were presented with a pre-poll alliance and voted for the same. I don’t think that this act of betrayal by Shiv Sena will go un-noticed and un-punished by the electorate in the future.  As we speak, Shiv Sena is in extensive talks with the NCP and the Congress to cobble together an alliance. One can imagine the machinations which will be at play in those meeting rooms!

It is funny to see the Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray citing the example of BJP and PDP who are ideologically poles apart coming together.  That the experiment failed miserably is there for all to see! Why would one take so much pains to emulate a failed experiment??? Similarly, it is also funny hearing some experts citing the instance of Bal Thackeray supporting Indira Gandhi’s emergency to justify this coming together of the Sena and the Congress! That happened way back in 1977 almost 40 years ago!

Coming back to Game theory and the players involved, BJP has emerged with its stature and image enhanced. It would rue the day it decided to go along with Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha and state polls!   Shiv Sena is now being seen as a party which would do anything to just have its Chief Minister! As of now, it seems that it may not be a Sena Chief Minister but a Nationalistic Congress Sena Chief Minister! Irony just put its head into a Tiger’s mouth!

Coming of age of the Indian voter and a Wake-up call for the States!

This article has been written for the news website Newslaundry and was published on the 4th of Oct, 2019. You may read the same here:

https://www.newslaundry.com/2019/11/04/a-wake-up-call-to-states-its-time-to-invest-in-good-governance-to-win-assembly-polls

The latest season in the continuous cycle of elections in India ended last week, this time the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana. The dust hasn’t quite settled since Maharashtra still hasn’t seen its next government, even after what seemed like a clear verdict in favour of a pre-poll alliance. It can’t get stranger than this!

However, a detailed look at the results of the state elections before and after the Lok Sabha polls reveals a pattern. It discloses the coming-of-age of the Indian voter. Here’s how, and why.

May 2018: Karnataka state election 

The Congress, which governed the state in the last term, received a clear verdict against the party in Karnataka. At the same time, the Bharatiya Janata Party, while emerging as the single largest party, fell short of majority. However, in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll almost a year later, the BJP got an overwhelming mandate winning 25 of the 28 seats on offer.

November 2018: Madhya Pradesh state election 

The BJP, which had helmed the state for three terms, was unseated by an anti-incumbency vote. The party was pipped by the Congress. Yet, in the May 2019 parliamentary poll just six months later, the BJP swept the state, winning 27 of the 28 seats!

November 2018: Chhattisgarh state election

Here also, the BJP was voted out by a strong “against” vote and the Congress captured the state with a decisive mandate. It’s vote share was just 33 per cent. In the May 2019 Lok Sabha election, the story was different. The BJP won nine of 11 seats with a vote share of 50.9 per cent.

November 2018: Rajasthan state election

Again, the state went against the incumbent party, the BJP, and voted the Congress to power. But in the Lok Sabha poll, the BJP swept the state with a decisive vote share of 58.47 per cent, winning 24 out of 25 seats. Even the final seat went to an ally of the BJP.

December 2018: Telangana state election

The Telangana Rashtra Samithi managed to beat anti-incumbency in the state and retained power with an overwhelming mandate. It got a three-fourth majority and won 88 of 119 seats. The Lok Sabha poll flipped this win: TRS secured only nine out of 17 seats.

May 2019: Odisha state election

The governing Biju Janata Dal returned to power with a decisive mandate, winning 111 of a total of 147 seats in the Assembly. There was no trace of anti-incumbency. In the Lok Sabha poll held simultaneously, the BJD managed to win only 12 of 21 seats. Its vote share also fell by 1.9 per cent.

October 2019: Maharashtra state election

The BJP and its ally, the Shiv Sena, secured 161 seats with a combined vote share of 42.16 per cent. As a pre-poll alliance, they managed to get a majority. This result comes six months after the Lok Sabha poll, where the same coalition had bagged 41 of the 48 seats with a comfortable vote share of 51.34 per cent. What this means is the alliance lost a vote share of 9.18 per cent in just six months!

October 2019: Haryana state election

Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it fell short of a majority. Only with the support of the Jannayak Janata Party could the BJP eventually form the government. Compare this with the Lok Sabha election where the BJP won all 10 seats in the state, implying it lost a vote share of almost 21.71 per cent in the Assembly election.

Only in the northeastern states of Tripura and Nagaland, where the state elections happened in February 2018, the electorate voted for the BJP alliance in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

What are voters looking for?

Voters know what they’re doing. There are different combinations: voting for the same party in state and central polls; different parties being given the mandate in the state and central polls; or the extent of mandate differing if the same party wins in both elections.

If this trend holds — which I believe it will — this augurs well for Indian democracy. The voter is sending a clear signal that she understands the issues for which she is voting in a particular election. This is different from the general commentariat opinion that voters do not know what they are voting for.

This brings us to the next section of this piece: understanding the different issues voters vote for in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Glancing at the results of the 2014 and 2019 general elections, here’s a quick breakdown of what, perhaps, voters are voting for in the Lok Sabha poll.

– For a face. The Lok Sabha polls are increasingly becoming presidential. Voters like to know the face of the prime minister they’re voting for. If parties do not project a clear prime ministerial face, they start with a handicap.

– For a party whose leader is seen to be strong, decisive and communicative.

– For a party’s stance on nationalistic issues related to India’s defence policies, the way we deal with our neighbours, the way we conduct our foreign policy, and so on.

– For a party’s overarching welfare programmes related to health, education and other issues.

– For an overall image of an honest, non-corrupt and functional government.

On the flipside, a voter clearly expects their state government to deliver on day-to-day issues like living conditions, infrastructure and delivery of the Centre’s welfare programmes.

Hence my hypothesis that the emerging voting pattern must serve as a wakeup call to the states to double down on governance issues. Even if a party receives an overwhelming mandate in the Lok Sabha polls, it does not translate to a resounding mandate in an Assembly poll unless it gets its act together on delivery of governance. States can no longer ride on the charisma of a central leader if they haven’t done their bit on the governance front.

It’s also time the commentariat shifts its focus and scrutinises the governance levels of states. This means analysing state budgets and not just the Union budget, and regularly evaluating a state’s financial health. It implies comparing the appetite for reforms within states, not just at a central level.

I firmly believe next generation reforms, which can make a difference to the economy, lie at the doorsteps of our states. Labour reforms, DISCOM reforms, land acquisition reforms, PDS reforms, agricultural reforms — multiple issues related to the daily livelihood of the poor are in the hands of states. It’s time chief ministers wake up to this and invest in running key ministries at a state level that deliver governance. If the results of the last few Assembly elections haven’t served as a wake-up call to the states — nothing will.

A Tale of Two FMs!

In the last week, two Ex-Finance Ministers of India, pushed Kashmir out of the headlines and debates, though for reasons completely different. Palaniappan Chidambaram (PC), an Ex-Finance Minister in the UPA ministry hogged the headlines for being a political heavy weight who finally got close to the long arm of the law. Arun Jaitley (AJ), the other Ex-Finance Minister but of the Modi 1.0 cabinet, dominated news since yesterday when he passed away after prolonged ill health. The lives of these two successful personalities have many common strands but, what is striking is the way it is finally diverging and in this lie key lessons for aspiring politicians.

The similarities first. Both PC and AJ came from privileged backgrounds and were never the “rags to riches” type leaders. They were lawyers by profession and extremely successful at that.  If they weren’t full time politicians, they would have been among the top 10 highly paid lawyers in the country for sure. Both were extremely articulate.  Both made their first impressions through their communication skills within their parties.  And that also turned out to be the lasting impression. In the last few years, the most interesting debates in the parliament were, when PC and AJ were pitted against each other – whether it was the GST or the Aadhaar debates. Both were tailor made for TV interviews and discussions. Both came extremely prepared for interviews and were at their combative best in putting across their views. More often than not, one tended to change opinions after listening to their points of view on a subject.  PC through his weekly columns and AJ through his blogs have also been using the written medium to get across their views effectively.

Both PC and AJ with their legal backgrounds, would give key inputs in drafting of bills to their respective parties. Their opinions were always sought in all issues related to passing laws in the parliament. In spite of not having a background on economics, both got the opportunity to be Finance Ministers. Both showed alacrity in dealing with numbers.  And when the situation demanded, they were the chosen ones to step in, as In-charge for other ministries. In the wake of the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai during Manmohan Singh’s regime, it was PC who was asked to take over the reins of the Home Ministry from Shivraj Patil who was found wanting in terms of responding to the situation. In AJ’s case he was asked to handle Defence Ministry as well, till Narendra Modi could convince Manohar Parrikar to take up the job.  One point of time he was handling three key portfolios concurrently.

In spite of these strengths, both PC and AJ were never mass leaders. PC did win elections from Tamil Nadu but that didn’t make him a mass leader. AJ could not manage to win the election even amidst the “Modi wave” in 2014 when he contested from Amritsar! And I also reckon that their elitist background, their success in their profession and thereby their high net worth made them easy targets for “not fit for public life” barbs.

Now, coming to the divergence in their personalities. AJ has been more loyal to his ideological moorings. Having started as part of the ABVP, he stuck to the Sangh parivaar during his entire life. PC, though known as a Congress man, left the party in between to be part of Tamil Maanila Congress. He was rewarded with the important Finance Ministry by both Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral.

While AJ is known to be congenial with his staff and peers, PC always came across as arrogant and rude. He was known to be firm in his views and not one to suffer mediocrity. This projected him as an aloof politician who won more enemies than friends. On the other hand, as can be seen from the obituaries since AJ’s death yesterday, his friend circle cut across professions and political parties. And this turned out to be going against AJ most of the time.  Among the hard core BJP followers or Bhakts, AJ was viewed with suspicion of protecting his friends from other parties and corporates in corruption and other charges.

The same goes with relations with media.  AJ had many among the media who are now calling him as “My friend Arun” in their obit pieces. I suspect PC has few friends in the media!

PC while in Government had many run-ins with his ministerial colleagues. His spats with Pranab Mukherjee and Jairam Ramesh are in public domain. Who will forget that “patching up” Press conference he did along with Mukherjee? With AJ, we have not heard of any spats he had with his peers.

PC was seen more of a self-centred person even within his party and there was always a question mark over his commitment and loyalty to the party and the leadership.  But here, AJ was always seen as a party man. When not in power and not a minister, AJ was handling the poll strategy and electioneering. Before the Amit Shah era, AJ was the master strategist in putting together the poll campaigns for BJP in states including Gujarat when Narendra Modi was fighting the elections. PC apart from being a member of the manifesto drafting committee he was not known to be a poll strategist or an organisational man.

It is to AJ’s credit that many of today’s senior ministers in the Modi cabinet were all at some time mentored by him. Whether it is Piyush Goyal or Nirmala Sitharaman or Dharmendra Pradhan, they have all been coached and guided by AJ in the past. Similarly most of today’s BJP spokespersons have been mentored by AJ. PC has no such reputation.

In terms of handling the Finance Ministry, I always thought that PC did a better job. He took over as FM in 2012 from Pranab Mukherjee during UPA-II, when the economy was at its lowest ebb. He quickly put in measures in place to arrest the Rupee slide and restore investor confidence by drawing a clear red line on fiscal deficit. That the mood of the country had already set in for a change that time is another matter.  But, it always seemed like he was a right person in the wrong party under a wrong leader. I personally felt that under a stronger government and a more decisive PM, PC would have relished his job better and would have made a bigger impact in governance.  AJ, though armed with the luxury of heading the Finance ministry of a majority government, showed very little appetite for getting into a “Mission mode” on the economy front.

The introduction of the landmark tax reform – GST shows who is a consensus man. The work on GST which started during the UPA era couldn’t see the light of the day during UPA. The then Finance Minister PC was not accommodative on many of the requests from the states like revenue compensation… However, during Modi 1.0, AJ could build a clean consensus and despite stiff opposition from Congress (in particular PC) on certain clauses could get GST off the ground in 2017.

Amidst all this, if there is a big divergence between PC and AJ, it is how they managed their families, which has now become PC’s Achilles heel.  The legal troubles PC is facing today all claw back to the conduct and involvement of his son Karthi Chidambaram. We wouldn’t know if PC was a wilful partner in all his son’s business misadventures.  However, the fact that he didn’t and he couldn’t reign his son from misusing the office of the Finance minister, makes PC a partner in crime. And today he is paying for the same.  On the other hand, AJ had a spotless track record. Except for pointing fingers at him for developing friendships across the board and being a gossipmonger, there is no charge of misconduct or misappropriation against AJ or his family. He had kept his family away from his political and public office.

In public domain, Chidambaram is seen most of the times in spotless white shirt and dhoti. However, his public life has not been spotless. On the other hand, Jaitley while being in a similar political boat, lived his life without a blemish. And kept his family away from tapping his political influence.

In analysing the lives and career of these two fascinating politicians, there lies a key lesson for many a politician – Control thy Son(s)!

Agenda for Modi 2.0!

Dear Mrs. Sitharaman,

First things first. Congratulations on becoming the finance minister of the country. Ever since you have taken over, there has been a flurry of unabated, unsolicited advice on what you should do and should not, in the upcoming budget. I was extremely reluctant to add to that already long list. But then your extremely gracious and earnest tweet the other day, welcoming all suggestions and inputs changed my mind.  Being from Trichy as well, I could see the “Trichy Tehzeeb” in that request!  Hence this piece, with my wish list not just from the budget but overall from the Modi Sarkar 2.0 from an economic agenda point of view.

I am not an Economist. I am just a keen and informed observer of Indian politics and a well-wisher of our country. So, my points may or may not stand the scrutiny of economists but hopefully will pass muster with the readers of this post.   I promise that I am not going to repeat a lot of stuff which has already been suggested by the erudite in their pieces.  So, here we go:

  • First up, the positive effects of implementation of GST and the kicking off of several infrastructural projects from the 1st term will start bearing fruits in the coming 2/3 years. So, I suggest that the 5 year term till May 2024 be divided into 2 parts – First 3 years till 2022 and the second 2 years till 2024. Take all the tough decisions in the 1st part and use the 2nd to stabilise things.
  • Second, in Modi 1.0, there have been quite a few hits but some misses too. In the 2nd term, on the back of a solid mandate, Team Modi should play on the front foot with confidence, while at the same time leaving alone deliveries outside the stumps and negotiating short pitched deliveries and bouncers with alacrity. In governance parlance, this means implementing even the not so populist decisions with confidence and not getting muddled in unwanted distractions.
  • Third, please request the economic ministries to come up with a list of things to be done to rev up the economy which is stuttering. Divide this list into 3.
    • 1 – Low hanging fruits which don’t need legislative backing
    • 2 – Which need bills to be amended, passed in the parliament
    • 3 – which need the states to take action

Get going on this list systematically. Have a target of 60 days to accomplish everything in the 1st list. This will give a clear message to all stake holders that this government is not the one to rest in its electoral success laurels!

  • Fourth, you are now in Japan and there is a lot we could learn from the Japanese in terms of going about things. One of the things I learnt from working in a Japanese company is “Prioritisation”! As Indians, we tend to focus on 100 things at the same time and spreading ourselves extremely thin. This was one grudge I had on Modi 1.0 which embarked upon so many projects simultaneously like Make in India, Skill India, Stand up India, Digital India, Smart City project, Ujwala programme and so on. If you closely measure the success, it is only the programmes which had focus like Ujwala, Rural electrification, Rural housing that met with success. In Modi 2.0, I would suggest that the Government takes up a maximum of 2 or 3 projects at a time, focus on the delivery with finite timelines and then move on to the next set of 2/3 ideas. This is what Japanese do.
  • Fifth, in India we have been talking of linking outcomes to outlays. But seldom has the same been acted upon. So, in the coming budget presentation on the 5th of July, please do not announce plain outlays but outlays that can be linked to quantifiable  outcomes.
  • Sixth, we usually see that in the budget, there are many outlays which are just carried forward year after year with a % increment or a % cut. For example, since 2013, money from Central Budget has been allocated to Nirbhaya fund to support initiatives towards ensuring women safety. One really doesn’t know how this fund is being utilised and after 5 years what this fund has achieved. This is just one example. In every budget, there are many sundry allocations like this. Please review item-wise outlays in the last 3 budgets,  respective outcomes achieved and allocate outlays in the coming budgets only if they make sense.
  • Seventh, considering the state of the economy, there is a need to mobilise resources to generate income and keep fiscal deficit under check. As Prime Minister Modi has been talking of “Minimum Government and Maximum Governance” one way of mobilising resources is by Government exiting many businesses that are no longer strategic in nature and monetising those assets. In Modi 1.0, in every budget, we had an item called “Proceeds from disinvestment” and this was achieved by making some PSUs like LIC pick up shares from the disinvested PSUs. During NDA-1 under Vajpayee, there was a clear focus on “Real” Disinvestment with a full-fledged ministry and a determined minister like Arun Shourie doggedly pursuing it. UPA did away with this and since then Modi 1.0 included, there has been no serious disinvestment in the country. I suggest that Modi 2.0 take this up seriously. A functional ministry named as “Monetisation of PSU Assets” (since disinvestment is seen as a bad word) should be formed. I also add that the proceeds from this monetisation be parked in a separate account and used for welfare schemes. By this, any criticism of the move can be countered by demonstrating that the proceeds of the same are being used for social welfare. A creative way needs to be found for accounting like this.
  • Eighth, in Modi 1.0, there was a big push towards infrastructure projects like highways and roads which was really commendable. The same should be continued with additional vigour. However, as admitted by Nitin Gadkari the pace of the projects could have been faster but for complex land acquisition issues. This is a big issue even today. In the 1st term, after initial belligerence, the government chickened out of the much needed amendments on the Land Acquisition bill. I remember Modi taking this up with rigour in 2014 basically because all the states identified certain provisions in the existing Land Acquisition bill as impediments for timely closure of infra projects.  Since the states are equal stake holders in this issue, please have discussions with a fresh outlook, strike a consensus and pass the amendments to the bill smoothly in both houses of the parliament. Renaming this as “Land Partnership bill” or something like that instead of the negative sounding Land Acquisition bill will help too to remove the negative connotation around this!
  • Ninth, taxation in India is still complex. GST implementation was a landmark Tax reform. I am sure there is a road map towards further simplifying the same with reduced tax slabs and simplifying procedures. Now, in this term please focus on Direct taxes. I hope that the panel working on overhaul of this will submit their recommendations quickly and your government should adopt the same ASAP. In simple terms, the mantra should be lower tax rates with no or very few genuine exemptions. Some of the exemption clauses we have are weird and defy all logic. For example the current clauses we have for LTA exemptions for salaried. Applicable for 2 years in a block of 4 that being calculated from the year 1986 and so on!!! Someone needs to do a Zero based hard look at all the existing exemptions for personal and corporate taxation and do away with most of them which don’t make sense in this day and age!
  • Tenth and the last one. On the 5th July when you leave your office for the parliament to present the budget, your team will hand over a brand new brown brief case which will have the budget speech. You and your team will pose with that brief case for the cameras and then you will read out the budget speech from the bunch of documents. And here’s what I suggest. Please, please do away with this brief case and the papers. Instead, amble along in style, pose for cameras with your hands “free” and as you rise to present the budget in the parliament hall, download the speech from the ministry’s secure server and project it in a large screen. Doing away with the rambling, long speech that would be just uber cool, while at the same time giving a push towards Prime Minister’s “Digital India” dream!

Pic Courtesy: Livemint

The Making of Modi 2.0!

As the results of the much anticipated Lok Sabha elections in India unfold themselves this day, it is clear that Narendra Damodardas Modi is all set to occupy the Prime Minister’s chair of India once again. In this avatar of Modi 2.0, BJP is looking set to get a majority on its own and NDA as a pre poll alliance is expected to beat its 2014 tally! First things first. This is a remarkable feat for an incumbent to not just return but return with a better performance than the 1st term and so kudos are in order!

As much as the return of Modi as the prime minister was expected to a large extent, the scale and the ease of this victory was not expected till some of the exit polls predicted so. What were we told all this while? “Demonetisation hurt jobs and the poor. GST is still hurting traders. There is agrarian crisis all over. Job creation has hit a historic low. Minority are living under increasing fear. Economy is not growing enough. And since 2014, the Idea of India has been threatened”. And much more. So, in spite of the fact this this government did perform in areas of infrastructure like roads, highways, railways…, asset building in rural areas, reaching electricity to the hinterland,…,… we were told that these were not enough to re-elect Modi again that too with a clear majority.

That being the case, what explains this massive victory? What is behind the making of Modi 2.0? I call it the story of “M”s!

M for Modi: – Let there be no doubt in anyone’s mind people on this. People have not voted for BJP or the NDA. They have unequivocally voted for Narendra Modi! States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan which were lost by BJP are now being swept by them!  Modi has been seen as being earnest in his endeavour to fulfil promises he made. So, even if ALL the promises were not kept fully, people are being kind enough to give another chance. Programmes like Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Demonetisation, Toilet construction, rural electrification and Ujwala Yojana… are being seen as sincere attempts in improving living conditions in India. Though some of the programmes like Demonetisation faltered, people were willing to forgive and forget!

M for Muscular leadership: I will have to narrate an anecdote here to elaborate this point. A day before polling in Mumbai, my 11 year old daughter’s friend asked my wife as to whom she would vote.  My wife asked why she wanted to know that. And her response left me stunned. “Aunty, I hope you will vote for Modi. Because only he can give a fitting response to Pakistan. India in the past never entered Pakistan and hit them. But under Modiji, humne ghuske maara”!  This was the impact a strong leader leaves in the minds of the young.  Critics may call it mindless belligerence when Modi decided to do a surgical strike and follow it up with an air strike. But people want their leaders to show spine in matters of their country’s defence.

M for Mission mode: This is the difference between Vajpayee/Advani era BJP and Modi/Shah BJP. During NDA-1, after forming the government and running a reasonably good one at that for 6 years, BJP did not do anything to widen their base. But the BJP under Modi/Shah is a different kettle of fish. After having won a decisive mandate in 2014, did they keep quiet? They got into “Mission mode” in North East and then later Bengal and the results are there to see. For BJP, if 2014 was UP story, 2019 is Bengal+UP story! In 2019, when it was facing the spectre of the SP-BSP-RJD gathbandan, BJP activated its “Mission mode” to target 300 on its own! This by targeting areas like Orissa, Bengal and North East.

M for Machinery: This is linked to the above. That is of having a plan and executing the plan through an effective machinery. The party machinery under the leadership of Amit Shah works relentlessly in expanding their base within India. Not just during election time. This also means that BJP will now target states like Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu next probably for 2024!

M for last Mile Delivery: It is one thing to announce programs. It is one thing to have a strategy in the board room. It is another thing to ensure last Mile delivery. Whether it is Jan Dhan Yojana or Ujwala Yojana or other Yojanas, Modi Government’s track record on last mile delivery has certainly made a difference to people. This is what has made BJP and Modi to hold on to their leads even in the face of a combined opposition in states like UP.

M for Marketing: The word “Marketing” is often derided upon as if it is a bad word! As a marketing professional myself, I have resented it often. And I have said that Marketing is not a bad thing at all and is a critical element in a product’s success or failure. In political arena, for a leader or for a party, it is not just enough to perform. But it is important to be “seen as performing”! In that sense, BJP as a party and Modi as a leader are miles ahead in terms of marketing themselves.  Some would say that Modi’s success is all about just marketing! I tend to disagree. One should not forget the fundamental mantra that even great marketing cannot save a bad product!  One can write a separate blog on BJP’s marketing but turning the Chowkidar Chor hai slogan of Congress on its head as Main bhi Chowkidar campaign in its favour is one example of some great marketing by BJP!

M for Models: One reason for Modi in the 1st place to earn credibility in 2014 was his famed “Gujarat model”. This credibility is important for people to take your promises seriously. And this is the problem with the opposition today. The main opposition party doesn’t have any credible model to point the people to! If today, the Congress promises “Nyay”, people are reluctant to take it seriously. Because, even in states which are ruled by Congress, they find it difficult to hold on. If Congress has to be taken seriously in future, they need to develop their own “models” which they can positively refer to.

I hear some of you saying that it is all just one “M” which is Modi! No victory is accomplished with one factor. It is usually a combination of factors. I believe that in the making of Modi 2.0, the mantras were the above so many “M”s! Now that Modi 2.0 has been accomplished, it is time to look ahead and focus on the agenda for Modi 2.0.  What should that be? Please look for my next post! For now, M for Mangal!

Pic Courtesy: Rediff

Mahagad(bad)bandhan!

WhatsApp with all its inherent strengths and weaknesses can be a good source of humour. In particular, in the election season, meme factories are running at full capacity churning out humorous content day in and day out. Among this was a clip – a gem of a creative idea that was going viral on social media few days back. Unlike the usual edited video clips, this was an animation of a WhatsApp group conversation. And here’s the best part. The group was titled “Mahagathbandhan” and showed an imaginary chat among its members who were supposed to be part of the Mahagathbandhan! As this clip was trending on social media and doing the rounds on various WhatsApp groups, I am sure you would have seen it. If not, do check out the clip here!

The humour and sarcasm in this clip notwithstanding, it exposes the fallacies of the Mahagathbandhan being propped up in just 2.5 mins! The idea for this Mahagathbandhan, which is a spectacle for few and spectre for others, I guess, germinated in May last year after the Karnataka polls. After losing the majority, Congress in a very alert move, decided to support Janata Dal (S) though they fought against each other in the elections. This move deprived BJP of forming the government in Karnataka even though, they were the single largest party with just few seats short of majority.

In Indian politics, if you ask me of one sight which is downright repulsive, it is of leaders of political parties of all hue showing up on stage clutching their hands and raising them as a symbol of being together. No other visual can be as dubious as this. The swearing-in ceremony of H.Kumaraswamy Gowda provided the schadenfreude moment for all those parties opposed to the rise of BJP in the country. So, we saw leaders as diverse as Kejriwal to Stalin to Mamata to Chandrababu to Rahul Gandhi to Mayawati to Pinnarayi Vijayan to Akhilesh coming in person to grace the occasion. That stage with the majestic Vidhan Soudha as the back drop on the 23rd May last year, would have given seed to the idea of the Mahagathbandhan to all parties who wanted to stop Narendra Modi on his tracks!

As it is usually the case, showing off a possibility is easy and making it possible is the onerous task! Unlike in the past, where parties come together in a pre-poll alliance or at times cobble up a post poll set up, the Mahagathbandhan is an epitome of conflict of interests among its constituents. Held together by one single-minded purpose of keeping BJP or rather Narendra Modi away from another term, there are conflicts galore!

By definition, the proposed Mahagathbandhan is supposed to be a rainbow coalition of all parties outside of the NDA who have one common enemy. A rainbow with all its different colours presents a pleasing sight! But a rainbow coalition doesn’t! It is obvious on paper that if they all come together and fight the BJP/NDA, thanks to the arithmetic of vote shares and the possibility of transfer of votes, the Mahagathbandhan will pose a very stiff challenge to the BJP in seats where they got the benefit of a split opposition in 2014. And thereby, this is a sure shot and obvious formula/strategy to stop Modi from getting a 2nd term.  While it may seem simplistic, in reality nothing can be more complex than the coming together of the Mahagathbandhan! And here’s why!

Let us for the moment keep aside the historical tussles and conflicts the parties in the Mahagathbandhan, had among each other and just focus on the issues of today.

Starting from the capital, BJP took all the seats in Delhi in 2014. But in the assembly polls that followed, AAP’s broom literally swept Delhi dislodging Congress after a 15 year stint! Sections of the Delhi Congress are still not able to come to terms with the scenario of fighting with a party which was instrumental in not just defeating them in Delhi but also creating that “Anti-Corruption” atmosphere in the entire country in the run up to the 2014 polls. Kejriwal went to the extent of saying that AAP will take all the seats in Delhi without Congress’ help but they needed the Congress in Haryana!

In Kolkatta, where TMC is ruling supreme and BJP is emerging as a strong challenger, a tie up of TMC, the Left and the Congress may dent BJP’s hopes of winning 7-8 seats in WB this time.  But then, the Left cannot stand the TMC and it is unimaginable for the workers to come together and work for a common cause.  So when the Left and the Congress are in an alliance, it remains to be seen if this will affect the TMC or the BJP more!

While in Bengal, the Congress and the Left are in it together, in Kerala though, the numero uno enemy for the Left is the Congress led UDF! In fact, this fault line got exposed after Congress announced that Rahul Gandhi would contest from Wayanad in Kerala in addition to Amethi! CPI(M)’s Prakash Karat was among the 1st to criticise this decision! He went on to say that the Left will work to defeat Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad!

There are such inconsistencies all over. In Maharashtra, the Congress and NCP are together for a long time, but in Gujarat, they are not. In the recent assembly polls in Telangana, TDP and the Congress fought together in an alliance but that couldn’t prevent the TRS winning the state by a landslide! After that spectacular defeat, TDP is silent about its tie up with the Congress for the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly polls in AP!

None of these confusions are more pronounced than in UP.  If BJP needs to be defeated in 2019, it should be defeated convincingly in UP. But even this overarching objective couldn’t stop BSP and SP from ditching the Congress for the Lok Sabha polls. So, finally that famous picture of Sonia Gandhi hugging Mayawati in glee during the swearing-in function of Kumaraswamy remained just a photo-op!

And one common theme which comes up as a predicament for all regional parties to be part of the Mahagathbandhan is their perception of Congress as a liability rather than an asset in the coalition! So, in all states where the regional parties are stronger than the Congress, they don’t want to have any truck with the Congress!

Now, I am sure that all these parties which are taking a stand based in their self-interests today, will have no hesitation in coming together and form a post poll Mahagathbandhan if they get an opportunity to take a shot at power! And one can imagine, with all the inherent conflicts and fault lines among themselves, the alliance can only run with confusion writ all over! As each and every coalition partner start pulling the cart based on their self-interests and not necessarily Nation’s interest, it is not difficult to visualise what will happen to governance!  What will start as a Mahagathbandhan will soon become a Mahagad(bad)bandhan! Don’t believe?  Check out what happened to governance between 1977 and 1980, when we had the 1st Mahagadbadbandhan of sorts!

Postscript: Title courtesy my friend and an avid political watcher, Mukund Sampath who called Mahagathbandhan as a possible Mahagad(bad)bandhan in one of our chatsand that prompted this post!

Toon courtesy: Satish Acharya