Agnipath and not Agnipast!

“Change is the only thing that is constant” is an oft repeated phrase that has now become a cliché! In a real world that is not Utopia, the only thing that is constant is resistance to change. “Where are the big bang reforms?” This was a familiar question from the commentariat in the first few years of the Modi Sarkar. Then when the Sarkar started implementing reforms of the big bang variety, the question changed to “Why is this needed now?”. We saw this when the much-needed reforms in the agriculture sector were introduced. Finally, the government had to roll back the same. In my blog (read here) when the farm bills were repealed after protracted agitations, I had written on the lessons for the Modi Government in bringing in reforms. There are more lessons coming up!

Here we are, again in the same boat. The Government announced Agnipath, a scheme that brings about radical changes or reforms in the recruitment of jawans for the armed forces. And post the announcement, we have been seeing the same scenes playing out in terms of agitations and approach of the government. Literally speaking Agnipath has set parts of the country on fire, and this is extremely unfortunate.

Most commentators and domain experts acknowledge the need for these reforms. Yet, the section of the population which is supposed to benefit from these have an angst towards these. The result is what we see playing out on our respective screens.

From whatever I have seen and heard on this issue, the biggest issue around the proposed Agnipath program is the timing. For the past 2 years, due to Covid, recruitment to Armed forces through recruitment rallies have not happened. The process is at different stages and the candidates are going through an agonising period of prolonged suspense, frustration and at the end of the day some hope. Aspiring candidates are at different stages in the process – some awaiting their medical, some awaiting the final letter, some at different rounds and so on. So, all the while they have been forced to keep themselves fit and ready for the process to come to an end now that things are getting back to normal post Covid. All along the candidates have been given the reason of Covid for the delay in the process.

Now comes the announcement of Agnipath which totally puts paid to their hopes of not just joining the services that will ensure a settled life but, a 3/4^th probability of getting out of the services and start all over again in 4 years. What we see as raucous demonstrations are a result of the pent-up frustration in the first place due to last two years of agonising wait and second now finding that the game has changed.

If one must look at the causes therefore for this unrest, they can be summarised as follows:

First the timing. As I have mentioned before, the proposed changes have come at a time when recruitment has not happened for two years.
Second, the proposed changes have made some of the candidates ineligible due to the age limits. They feel slighted.
Third, there is an element of uncertainty because of the 25% absorption clause even for those who get selected. Therefore, this is seen as a harbinger of struggle in life if one misses the bus!
Fourth, the probability of getting selected even if this is a short tour of duty has reduced since the overall recruitment numbers has been reduced. In general, around 60,000 get selected in a year. Now that has come down to 40,000 of which only 10,000 will get absorbed after four years. This is my understanding. So, the reduction in intake is drastic and therefore the probability of getting into a settled job with the forces has also reduced for the aspirants drastically.
And finally, the sudden drastic communication of the rolling out of the program.

Having said all this, since the proposed reform packaged as the Agnipath scheme is much needed for reducing the average age, reducing the pension budget, shifting the allocation from boots on the ground to weaponry, technology and sophistication, the government must stay the course but probably with a few course corrections. Here’s what the government could have done in rolling out this program and probably it could still do:

Over to Overlap: In businesses, when we try to bring in some changes that tend to disrupt long standing processes, we deploy a tactic called “Overlap”. I strongly feel that in this case also, the government could have brought in this new program with an overlap clause. This means, the existing recruitment program will continue as it is for 2 or 3 years while the new program will be introduced in phases. This of course increases the overall intake for two years but that is a smaller cost for bringing in a reform that has benefits in the long run. The candidates who are part of the ongoing process would not have felt slighted. The new candidates would come in knowing fully the contours of the new program. This would have taken care of the 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th issues mentioned above.
Float the trial balloon: Now coming to communication and therefore getting feedback before implementing the same, the government could have used a time-tested technique of leaking parts of the program to select journalists. When key elements of the program appear in the media quoting “as per sources”, it gives a window for the government to own/disown parts or the program in full depending upon the feedback. In this case, the government could have easily got an idea of the ground level feedback and therefore timed it better. Also, aspects of the program which the government is now making changes like the one-time extension of age limit and other ministries bringing in notifications for absorbing Agniveers could have been built into the program itself by floating this trial balloon.

Though some of the commentators particularly from the services feel that this should not be seen as an employment generation program, the fact of the matter is, in India there are districts in states like Bihar, Eastern UP, Bundelkhand, Haryana to name a few, where getting into the forces at the sepoy level is a primary source for employment for the youth. This explains the reason for the skewed nature of the protests and outbursts as far as geographic spread is concerned. The irony is, what probably started as spontaneous outbursts which resulted in destruction of public property at will has now turned into a more orchestrated campaign to create unrest in the country. Nupur Sharma issue is now history!

By going full fledged with the announcement, the government has put itself in a quandary and the program in jeopardy. Now coming out of the hole and still roll out Agnipath even with some changes will be a real Agnipariksha for the government! Hope this doesn’t go down as “Agnipast”!

Decoupled and Modi Sarkar!

For the uninitiated, Decoupled is an Indian web series that premiered on Netflix last month. It is written and created by Manu Joseph, one of India’s most interesting columnists/authors. The show is mostly in English and features Madhavan and Surveen Chawla in the lead. It’s a light hearted take on the life of a rich, urban couple and the struggles with the institution called marriage. But beyond this very common story line, what takes the cake is the way Manu weaves in day today happenings around us, using every opportunity to call out hypocrisies of the privileged and the opinionated. If you haven’t watched it yet, I would recommend it.

Now the overall response to the series has been interesting to see. Almost all the critics or of what I saw, sort of panned the show in unison. When I saw Decoupled, I quite liked it. The series quickly hit the top spot on India trends on Netflix. With whomsoever I checked in my circle, they all loved it. In social media, the series is now being celebrated for its refreshing take on life. Some of the clips and lines from the series in fact have been going viral on WhatsApp, a sure indicator of a show’s success if I may say. In short, common viewers like you and I just loved it while the critics hated it.

In my opinion, the critics hated Decoupled most likely because it was from Manu Joseph. For long now, Manu has been holding contrarian views on issues that challenge the common opinions of expert commentators. And that he could present his arguments in a very articulate and convincing manner that are not so easy to counter, makes him more reviled among his peers. Week after week, Manu in his weekly columns of late, sets the cat among the pigeons with his compulsive, against the flow takes that rattle status quoists on the one hand and instigate what Manu himself calls as asparagus eating liberals, on the other hand. For example, when the entire commentariat was taking on the Modi government for its push on Aadhaar quoting privacy concerns, Manu’s take was and I quote, “Absolute privacy is a right that people have given up when they chose not to live in forests”! So, he has this knack of hitting well pitched yorkers out of the park.

I therefore feel that the image Manu acquired of being this rattler through his columns or non-fictional writing, came to the fore when critics watched Decoupled which is his work of fiction. One of the reviews alluded Decoupled to be “a vessel to communicate creator Manu Joseph’s most divisive thoughts to an audience that normally wouldn’t care about them”. For critics, this was an opportunity to give it back to Manu for what he does week after week through his columns.

Now, this dichotomy is something we are getting familiar with. And a very common parallel to this which comes to my mind is the reaction Narendra Modi gets in India. And this where the twain of Decoupled and Modi Sarkar meet and I will explain how. Majority of Aam admi in India like Modi. But the critics and the liberal intelligentsia hate him from his Gujarat days and for growing to this stature in spite of their writings against him. So whatever Modi does, the liberal commentariat tends to find ways and means to critique them, while the common man keeps lapping them up.

I can quote so many examples in the past 7 years since Modi became the Prime Minister, when the so called experts chose to critique his ideas or find fault but, which resonated well with the people by and large. I found it amusing when this government launched the Toilet construction programme in villages, some critics were asking about water availability! Similarly, when free LPG connections were provided, the question was who will pay for the refills!

In fact in some of the cases, I thought that the ideas were criticized just because they were from the Modi Sarkar and probably they would have been appreciated by the critics if they were from say a Congress government. The whole revamping of the old Parliament building for any logical person, is an idea whose time had come many years ago. Instead of not appreciating this government for taking the lead in creating the New Central Vista, the intelligentsia is only finding holes in the proposal by clutching on to straws of history. I am yet to come across one common man who had any problems with it, though. The same is likely hold true for the latest idea of shifting or merging the Amar Jawan Jyoti as well. The problem is not the idea itself but that it is has been initiated by Narendra Modi during his regime. Just like the problem being not with the web series Decoupled itself but with its writer and creator – Manu Joseph.

We are living at a time when though the message may be right, it will be called out as wrong if the messenger is not liked by some masters. It’s high time that the commentariat realises that its credibility is at its nadir and if this practice of shooting the message depending upon who the messenger is not stopped, it will deteriorate further.

The best part is, in fine arts writers and artists gain recognition from readers and viewers, and not just from critics. And so is in a democracy. All eligible citizens vote and not just the commentariat. Thank God for small mercies.

Catching up on the Economic Agenda!

Social Media is an ongoing battlefield for the IT Cells of political parties. There, you routinely find claims and counter claims by BJP and the Congress, which get forwarded and go viral. Among the regular updates from the BJP side, the ones which are popular are those where Narendra Modi era (Post 2014) and Manmohan Singh era (2004-2014) are compared which show how the country has progressed rapidly in the last 7 years whether it is Highways construction, Rural Electrification, Toilet construction, Clean water supply etc. etc. However, one thing on which the BJP IT cell is put on the back foot by the Congress is the Economic growth. This is a graphic which is popular among the Congress supporters and rightly so where in comparison, the Singh era shows higher average GDP growth than the Modi era, so far.

I am certain that if there is one thing Modi as a person, who likes to leave behind a legacy in whatever he does, would like to correct, it would be this. Frankly, I had high hopes from this government in its first term on its economic agenda. I thought that with a clear majority, it will pursue bold and long pending reforms with a much higher vigour than the reformist Vajpayee Government which was always bogged down by coalition pressures. It turned out that, but for the introduction of GST (a landmark and very important reform, in my opinion) and Demonetisation (in which the costs outweighed the benefits), the 1^st term was lack lustre and was more or less on “Maintenance mode” as far as pursuing a bold economic agenda was concerned.

It is my opinion that lawyers do not make good Finance ministers. P.Chidambaram, a fine lawyer, who is regarded as one of the most reformist Finance ministers the country had, always use to come up with one nit picking thing in his every budget, which cast a dark shadow on all the other good reforms he came up with. We all know what happened with Pranab Mukherjee, another Finance minister with a legal background. His retrospective taxation idea much against the wishes of even the economist Prime Minister Singh, punctured the “India Story” then and our economy went into a tailspin. So, that’s what happened with the Modi Sarkar in its first term. Arun Jaitley, another fine legal eagle was picked as the finance minister but, even during his regime the retrospective taxation was not rolled back! With no much economic traction, the 1^st term of Modi ended on a disappointing low economic growth path.

In 2019, when Nirmala Sitharaman was made the Finance minister in a very surprise move (not Piyush Goyal who was touted as the favourite), expectations were quite low. But, I had mentioned that time, that she could surprise the critics at the end of the day. I felt that considering her background and her studious nature, she can be expected to meticulously follow the agenda as laid out in the manifesto. Not just that, but also follow through methodically in terms of execution. You can see that this is what is happening now. In her 1^st budget in 2019, when corporate taxes were cut – a bold economic move to boost private investments and sentiment, it appeared that the Modi Government in its second term had got its intentions right in pursuing its economic agenda to boost growth which faltered in the 1^st term.

The pandemic though, which hit all economies hard including India in Feb/Mar 2020 put a spoke all further bold moves. Economic management during a pandemic is a double edged sword. The government needs to focus on lives on one hand and livelihood on the other and that too when its income is crippled. But, I thought that the team managing the economy in this government weathered the Covid storm very well and managed to tide over the crisis very well, under the circumstances.

In the midst of the pandemic last year and perhaps even now, top economists of the likes of Dr. Abhijit Banerjee, Dr. Raghuram Rajan and Dr. Kaushik Basu have been of the opinion that the Central government should not worry about fiscal deficit, agency ratings and all. Among other things like increased spending on health, they maintained that it should just do cash transfers through DBT mode to the needy. However, the government took a more cautious and calibrated approach of support by providing free ration to the needy, extending loan support to businesses etc. instead of cash transfers. This has been a clash of ideas between the economists in the government and economists commentating from outside. Frankly, I felt that what our government did is a better approach for a country like India.

Unlike the West, in India, people are more conservative financially. So, when a person gets free cash during a pandemic his first instincts will be to save it for spending on essential goods rather than on non-essential stuff to boost demand. Secondly, thanks to the lock down, there were supply restrictions. It is not logical that people will spend money just because they have been provided with cash support. So, the Government’s calibrated approach of providing free rations to the needy serves the purpose of protecting livelihoods during the pandemic. The salaried upper middle class and above were anyway not so affected as they were getting the salaries and even they spent only on essential stuff basically due to lockdown restrictions. So, the argument that Direct cash transfer would have boosted demand in the times of a pandemic doesn’t seem logical at all. If not all, a few economists like Swaminathan Aiyar finally admitted that this approach worked better for India.

It is in this context of understanding the thought process of this government on handling economic issues during the pandemic that I bumped on this video. In this speech, Sanjeev Sanyal, Economist and Principal Adviser in the Ministry of Finance, articulates brilliantly the approach of the government in managing the pandemic from an economic stand point. If you haven’t watched it, please do so. It answers quite a few questions which are routinely thrown at this government at the way it has been responding to the pandemic. Its clear from the speech that there is a “method” in the thinking of the government while there is “madness” in the newsrooms that feed us information. I wish that the government articulates the thinking behind their decisions more regularly for the benefit of all.

Now if you see the last few months, it is clear that the government is dead serious in reviving the economic growth. Some of the decisions since March have been bold and commendable. The rolling back finally of the retrospective taxation is one. The Asset Monetisation program is another. Taking a call to relieve the stress on the balance sheets of the banks by forming a “Bad Bank” is also another one. Again, addressing sector specific long pending issues like in Telecom is yet another. So, there has been a slew of bold decisions recently that gives a hope that in this term, with the pandemic hopefully behind us, the Modi Sarkar is pushing aggressively on its economic agenda.

As an economy, I believe we are at an interesting and crucial point. The pandemic is ebbing (or so we believe). Vaccination is progressing at a rapid pace. Economic activity is getting back to normal. These should bring the economy soon to pre-Covid levels. Now, if the bold reforms that have been unleashed this year has the desired effect, the growth only can be higher from here. For the Modi Sarkar which is finally catching up on the economic agenda, it will be a lasting legacy to demonstrate a higher average economic growth than the Singh era. And for the IT cell of the ruling party, few memes less to counter!

COVID-19 aftermath – Time to revive two flagship programmes of GOI

If there is one quote which has been oft repeated by commentators of all hue in the past few weeks as the world grapples with the COVID-19 crisis, it is this. Winston Churchill’s “Never let a good crisis go to waste”! As India locked itself down in its fight against Corona Virus, the lessons for future are many. And indeed it must learn those and never let this crisis go to waste, once things settle down. In India, we have a tendency to move on quickly from natural disasters and other calamities without learning the lessons and putting them to practice for future.

In the context of COVID-19, once we are out of the crisis completely, two programmes of the central government which were launched with much fanfare in the 1^st term of Modi Sarkar but which lost steam or didn’t take off the way they were envisaged come to mind. It’s time to revive them and re-launch them with added rigour. And in the aftermath of the Corona virus pandemic, I do believe that the chances of them now doing well have got better.

On the 15th of August, 2014, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, it caught the imagination of the public by and large. “A clean India would be the best tribute India could pay to Mahatma Gandhi on his 150 birth anniversary in 2019,” declared the Prime Minister. This was the first time, cleanliness entered public discourse since Independence. Immediately after the launch, there was an air of excitement and flurry of activities. I remember voluntary groups and public carrying out weekend shramdaan to clean up the neighbourhood. Celebrities did their bit by participating in symbolic photo ops with brooms to spread the message of cleanliness.

What started off very well, soon started losing steam with the typical Indian attitude of laxity creeping in, after the initial enthusiasm. From the government perspective, we also saw that Swachh Bharat Abhiyan from the original goal of a “Clean India” by 2019, moved to making India “Open defecation free” by 2019! So, accordingly the focus turned towards building toilets across the country and giving the poor access to toilets even in the remotest of villages. In his address to the parliament in Jan 2019, the President announced that over 9 crore toilets were constructed across the country under Swachh Bharat Abhiyan program and that the coverage of rural sanitation went up from less than 40% in 2014 to 98% in 2019. While these are commendable data points, we were not close to becoming a clean and hygienic country by Oct 2019, as envisaged by the Prime Minister when he kicked off the programme.

While not taking any credit away from the government for pursuing this initiative, I have always maintained that Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is not about cleaning and more cleaning but, reducing the need for cleaning in the first place. That essentially means developing instinctive disciplinary traits and attitude toward cleanliness like for example, the Japanese. This calls for a huge attitudinal change among us as we are by and large happy to keep our own four walls clean while not being concerned about littering in public.

It is undisputable that COVID-19, in the last few weeks has increased awareness of self-hygiene as well as community hygiene in a big way in India. Use of sanitisers hitherto seen as a “NRI tantrum” while in India, has now got into the collective conscience of India. I do believe that thanks to social media like WhatsApp, the ills of a pandemic like Corona Virus have reached the nook and corner of India and hence messages concerning the need to maintain cleanliness may be received with more seriousness than before. By the end of 2019, looking at the way the programme sort of petered out, I concluded that a “Clean India” may be a few decades away when the current student generation with more awareness from childhood stages take to public cleanliness more seriously. However, now I feel that COVID-19 has given us a great opportunity to reach our goal of a “Clean India” probably a few years earlier and it is important that we as a country seize this opportunity.

Weeks or months later when we get over the COVID-19 crisis, the governments – Centre, States, local municipalities and panchayats should step up the gas on Swachh Bharat Abhiyan once again. The government must use all the communication machinery at its disposal to build up on the Corona Virus messaging of “washing hands” to start talking about keeping one’s surrounding absolutely clean and safe to prevent further epidemics like this. We should move from friendly nudges to slapping heavy fines for offences like littering in the open, urinating on the side of the roads, Open defecation when toilets are available in the vicinity and spitting on the roads and walls. We must remember that making India a “Clean India” is not just the look out or job of the government of the day but is in the hands of the public. So, as a society, we must not let this good crisis go waste on the hygiene front and make our march towards a “Clean India”!

“Make In India” is another flag ship programme launched by Modi Sarkar way back in September 2014 with a view to give boost to the manufacturing sector in India with an eye on creating lakhs of jobs. Initially conceived to cover 16 industries, the scope was expanded later to include 25 identified industries. Five years hence, when one looks at the outcome of the programme, it’s a mixed bag. “Make In India” has seemingly done well in mobile phone and allied manufacturing with around 268 units producing phones and related accessories in India as of November 2019. This was just 4 in 2014. We are now the 2^nd largest manufacturer of mobile phones in the world. But beyond mobile phone manufacturing, other electronic manufacturing has not taken off in India as yet. We are nowhere close to the objective set of making manufacturing contribute to 25% of our GDP. With the economic slowdown in the last few quarters and the disruption due to COVID-19, the outlook for manufacturing looks even bleaker.

This is where, COVID-19 could provide a window of opportunity to India in next five to ten years. COVID-19 which erupted from China with the industrial province of Wuhan as the epicentre, has ended up disrupting the global economy in more ways than one. When the virus spread was around China in the month of February, the talk was about how the global supply chains particularly in the Automotive, Pharma and electronics sectors have been disrupted. With the contagion now spreading alarmingly all over the world, COVID-19 could emerge as the single largest cause and effect on the global economy in many years. It is estimated that the global GDP could shrink by 2% this year.

The COVID-19 crisis has hastened the shift of global supply chains out of China actively a move, which gathered momentum in the height of US-China trade war last year and increasing labour costs in China over the last few years. As we saw in reports, the Japanese government has announced support to companies shifting production from China back to Japan. Korean companies are reportedly exploring options with India to expand their capacities. The US and EU will eventually follow suit.

For India, this is a great opportunity to tap into this shift out of China.

It is good to see the Indian government sensing the opportunity and looking to further the cause of Make in India. Just recently, we saw a package of incentives being announced for the Electronics manufacturing industry with a focus not just on finished goods production but also developing downstream production units. Similarly package was cleared by the cabinet on the 21^st March for incentivising production of chemicals and raw materials that go into bulk drugs production. Initially these moves may help in softening our own dependence on China for imports of electronics and pharma goods but over a period of time will give a boost for exports once the ecosystem in put in place. So far so good. But these are not enough. Making India a part of global supply chains requires a well-co-ordinated (between Centre and states) 360 degree action plan to launch Make in India 2.0 in the light of COVID-19 that covers diplomatic, economic, commercial, human resources and even marketing front. This also requires changes in some of our laws (for example land acquisition) that can make ease of doing business a reality on the ground.

COVID-19 crisis is panning out in front of us as we speak. While we fight the health and immediate economic after effects of the same, it’s time to work on re-launching “Swachh Bharat Abhiyan 2.0” and “Make in India 2.0” in a couple of months and not let this crisis go waste.

Dear India, make 2021 the next 1991!

Rajini and Modi – The Twain meets, again!

In a post way back in 2016 after Rajinikanth’s Kabali released, I wrote about the strange coincidences between Rajini’s Kabali and Modi Sarkar @ 2 years. You may want to read that piece here. Strangely again, now in 2020, post Rajini’s latest film release – Darbar and few months into Narendra Modi’s 2^nd term, I find both of them in the same rocking boat!

Darbar, which released to huge expectations last week is still raking the moolah at the box office. As per various reports coming in, just like Rajini’s few other earlier movies, this one also may set records for collections. However, popular opinion is spilt down in the middle. While the film has endured itself to Rajini fans, it has not impressed the more discerning movie viewer. For them, Darbar has been a huge let down.

Now hold this thought on Rajini and Darbar and let’s look at what’s happening with Modi and his government now. Ever since it passed the controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill, popular opinion is split vertically down the middle in India. The core voter base of the BJP has hailed the Act as one which has been long overdue. On the other hand, the more liberal and non-core supporters of Narendra Modi are of the view that CAA and the proposed NRC are divisive and should have been left alone. This group which probably voted for Narendra Modi for the 2^nd term too, is a trifle disappointed with Modi Sarkar’s priorities.

In the case of Darbar, film critics have panned the film almost in unison. Most of them felt that the film lacked coherence and A.R. Murugadoss, the director was trying hard to pander to the fan base of Rajini. As a result of which he lost sight of the screen play and ended up wasting Rajini.

Similarly, the media has been extremely critical of Modi and his government the last few weeks ever since protests erupted all over the country against CAA and NRC. The narrative is similar. That the Modi Government is pandering to its Hindu fan base and attempting to bring in legislations that are bound to alienate Muslims.

For Rajini, the film before Darbar was Petta. A film in which he went back to playing a youthful Rajini after a gap of few films like Kabali and Kaala. A film which was touted as an ode to the Superstar of yore full of Rajini-isms. For a change, people and critics alike accepted the film, notwithstanding the overdoing of Rajini-isms!

Before Modi Sarkar ventured into the controversial CAA-NRC territory, just within few months into the 2^nd term, it made some big bang moves like nullifying Article 370 and passing the Triple Talaq bill. Notwithstanding the process followed in nullifying Article 370 and notwithstanding the fact that Triple Talaaq bill was targeted at conservative Muslims, these moves were hailed as stuff which were long overdue. And Modi was hailed as a solver of long standing issues which needed fixes. To a large extent even by the liberal media, perhaps reluctantly!

One thing that was found common across all critical reviews of Darbar was how Rajini came unscathed. The unanimous view was that Rajini tried his best with his usual charm, style, energy and wit but without a strong script, the film failed to deliver. So the ire was reserved for the Director and his team.

Similarly in spite of the missteps of the Modi Sarkar around the economy and CAA and NRC issues, Modi’s image still seem to be intact among the common man. He is still seen as this hard working Prime Minister who is working round the clock with unbridled energy to fix India’s problems. And so the ire is targeted towards his team and the bureaucracy which is not measuring up!

Over a period of time, people who liked Rajini’s films expanded significantly beyond his core base who just adored him for his style, his mannerisms, his swag,.. in short, what I call as Rajini-isms. In few films, Rajini demonstrated that beyond these ‘isms” he can also pack a punch and seriously act. Today, there is a base of film watchers who yearn to see that side of Rajini, who will choose a script, a director and do a film, going beyond the Rajini formula and template!

In the same vein, for Narendra Modi in the run up to the 2014 elections, there were people from outside the BJP core base, who preferred Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister. This group saw the work he did as Chief Minister in Gujarat and wanted to give a chance to him at the National level. Today, this non-core supporter group wants Narendra Modi to go beyond his “isms” which are basically the Sangh Parivar agenda items!

In that sense, the conundrum before Rajini and Modi are similar. Whether to just keep the core fan/supporter in mind and continue to pander to his fancy. Or look at the larger group who have supported them over the years and have made them the icons they are today?

While I have attempted to put Rajini and Modi at the same pedestal here, it’s a very simplistic view. The stakes involved are of course completely different. For Rajini, it is just the fate of his films at the box office and his own legacy. However, for Modi, the stakes involved are much higher. Modi is presiding over the fate of millions of people who expect him to deliver the promised Acche Din!

For Modi, the next release of consequence is the Union Budget. For some time now, I had begun to believe that the Budget is an over rated event in India. But this year, considering the perilous state we are in as far as economy goes, I do feel that the Budget 2020 gains enormous significance. Outside of India, among foreign investors, there is frustration over India’s continuing “Work in Progress” status. And clearly there is disappointment over India’s “1 step forward, few steps backward” economic progress. So, for Narendra Modi who always keeps an eye on the legacy he leaves in whatever he does, this is a good opportunity. To make Budget 2020 as significant or more than Budget 1991!

Just like the non-core fan base of Rajini who wants the Superstar to move beyond Rajini-isms and deliver a mega hit betting on a strong script, characterisation and acting skills of Rajini, the public of India also would like Modi to keep aside the “majoritarianisms” and focus on the Economy in the coming months to deliver a turn around. For becoming a 5 trillion economy Modi must “Chumma Kizhi”!

Picture credit: indiatoday.in

Turning the GDP (Gross Disappointing Product) tide!

Many years ago on my visit to China, I found most of the newspapers there giving a lot of attention in their front pages to decline in GDP, tapering of FDI into China and other such economic issues. In a blog post that visit, I rued that in India, our media doesn’t still focus on economic Roti, Rozgaar issues but spend disproportionate amount of columns on mundane political news and views. For the past few months, it has been good to see in India too, the media at last waking up to the slow down blues in the economy. For more than a year or so, the entire country was pre-occupied with the Modi re-election issue and everything else did not matter.

Since the re-election of Narendra Modi and his government that too with a majority better than last time, the euphoria and the resultant expectations have been very high. However, the party has been cut short by the bad news coming in on the economic front, day in and day out. There was a great opportunity for this Government with a new face as the Finance minister to have seized the opportunity when she presented the Union budget on the 5^th of July and fire the economy. The budget was a decent one but one that was devoid of Out of box, bold ideas which would set the economy on fire. In doing away with the brown brief case and opting for the bahi kaatha, Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget was a ritual breaker but, was not a path breaker! Hence, ever since the budget, there has been quite a few negative reactions as manifested in the tanking of the markets, depreciation of the rupee and a massive FPI pull out!

The initial reaction of the Government to these reactions were in expected lines that our economy was still resilient, one of the fastest growing and hence no need to panic. However soon enough, with bad news emerging on the Automotive sector first and then even on FMCG, the Government was forced into action and from then on we have been seeing a slew of measures, cabinet decisions and sops to revive the economy. Q1 GDP at 5% turned out to be the last straw. Coinciding with the Q1 GDP results, the Government announced the merger of PSU Banks as a way forward in banking reforms. Economy was finally on top of the news cycle and the Government’s attention, Kashmir notwithstanding!

It was widely expected and hoped that some of the important initiatives of the Modi Sarkar in the 1^st term like the thrust on Highways construction, massive investments in improving Railways infrastructure, improving air connectivity to the smaller towns, making electricity available to the last village and so on would start yielding results in terms of improving economic activity and fuel growth in the country. Added to this, Modi Sarkar has been constantly increasing outlays on MGNREGA in every budget. Why these measures have not started yielding results on the ground both in terms of economic growth and job creation is mysterious. It may be a good idea for the Chief Economic Advisor to come out with a White paper on the outcomes achieved for the massive outlays in Modi Sarkar 1.0.

In the back of all these, the question becomes, are the measures so far announced by the Government enough to resuscitate the economy? The reversal of some of the proposals in the budget are certainly welcome moves but those just contain the damage. And the other measures like opening up of FDI and so on are necessary but not sufficient to get us back to where we were last year (8%) and then hit our dream goal of 10% GDP growth which increasingly is becoming a pipedream.

During Modi Sarkar 1.0, the Government leveraged well on the windfall it had from the crude prices and not passing on the entire benefit to the consumer to “manage” the economy with heavy public investments. The hope was that gradually the private investments will pick up once the sentiments change. But unfortunately, due to the NPA and the overall banking crises, it did not fire up the economy so much but, just kept the wheels of the economy going. Now, under the current circumstances however, continuing of public expenditure alone may not be sufficient. The recent red herring on the increasing debt of NHAI may in fact become a dampener here. For India as a country, the next few months are supposed to be very high on economic activity with the impending festival season. And the fact that the monsoons have been bountiful for most parts of the country notwithstanding the floods in some parts, there is still hope even for this year.

So, in order for the economy to fire up, ways and means have to be found for increasing private investments and individual spending/consumption. I am no economist but here are some thoughts:

To get private corporate investments going:

Modi Sarkar should bite the bullet and announce 100% FDI in Multi Brand Retail. Though India as a country missed the retail bus 10 years ago, it is still not late. Some of the global retail majors may not be as bullish today as they were a decade ago on India due to our policy flip flops and the current industry shift to E-Commerce. But still considering the country’s size and the potential it offers, India is still an exciting market for say specialised vertical retail stores. In announcing this, we should do away with the myriad sourcing conditions and allow the retail water to find its own level. Retail gives fillip to low end jobs, manufacturing industries as well as commercial real estate.
Copy the STPI (Software Technology Parks of India) strategy that helped in boosting the software industry in India in the 90s and come up with a similar framework for boosting Electronic hardware manufacturing in India. This will help India in becoming a preferred country for those who are looking at alternatives to China. Again we are late in this game and today Vietnam has emerged as an alternative to China for low cost manufacturing. But still considering the long term view, I believe we still have opportunities here.
Every Government recognises the potential of Tourism as an industry to provide jobs and improve economic growth. However, to unleash and unlock the true potential of India, we need massive capacity building in hotels, recreation facilities, connectivity and infrastructure. Government should provide time bound tax cuts for investments to private sector in this area to targeted locations in India which need infrastructural boost. The tax cuts must be linked to time bound completion of projects.
As a purely short term stimulus, any capacity building in manufacturing industry by way of new factories, expansion of plants,.. should be provided with tax relief.

To improve consumption and spending:

Holiday season is upon us. Provide relief on Income tax to individuals for money spent on holiday travel and stay in select locations in India which require boost on tourism (Uttaranchal, North East, Leh for example) with a cap of say Rs. 1 Lac. This will motivate public to take vacations and boost tourism in certain locations which have potential, decent infrastructure and connectivity but are untapped. Usually this has a spiral effect. When more people throng these places, automatically investments start pouring in for development. For every 3 years, the locations can be changed in order to make it widely spread.
On the real estate front, today the supply is high and the demand low. This is mainly because the property rates are artificially pegged high and the home loans still high. This jinx needs to be broken. Though I have seen the Government announcing a slew of measures in the past few years, the housing market has not taken off. Considering the fact that the private real estate lobby is not going to cut prices ever, there is a need for the Government to intervene and disrupt the market. Like in countries like Singapore, Malaysia,.. Government must float either own companies or joint ventures to construct affordable housing in a massive scale and allot to citizens who do not own a single house in a transparent manner. The Government can offload its equity and then exit after say 20 years from these companies once the overarching objectives are reached. This will also disrupt the existing real estate industry and make it fall in line in terms of pricing and best practices, both of which are found wanting in the current scheme of things.

To revive the “animal spirits” in the Indian economy. Animal spirits are related to the points mentioned above i.e. both consumer and business confidence. I have put this separately as there are some low hanging fruits here which can be taken:

Sell Air India as of day before yesterday!
Get going on “Actual” disinvestment of Public Sector units already identified as non-strategic. Identify another Arun Shourie to make this happen in this term!
It is not enough to merge PSU Banks but to offload equity, get professional management and turn them to “HDFC Banks”!
Today many of the Government’s grand projects are stuck or going slow due to land acquisition issues. Identify the issues and fix them by bringing about the necessary changes in the Land bill!
Use the current crisis of job loss to build consensus around Labour reforms. Adopt the “GST council” approach for labour reforms. Today all state governments will eagerly come on board considering the pressure all states have on generating jobs.

As I write this blog, I am seeing that the Finance Minister is addressing a press conference. This is her 3^rd one in the last 2 weeks. Glad to see the Government demonstrating the needed sensitivity to the economic situation and willingness to take steps. Our only urge is that instead of incremental small steps, we need big leaps.

Only that will ensure we turn the tide over Gross Disappointing Product and achieve real Gross Domestic Product rates quickly!

Agenda for Modi 2.0!

Dear Mrs. Sitharaman,

First things first. Congratulations on becoming the finance minister of the country. Ever since you have taken over, there has been a flurry of unabated, unsolicited advice on what you should do and should not, in the upcoming budget. I was extremely reluctant to add to that already long list. But then your extremely gracious and earnest tweet the other day, welcoming all suggestions and inputs changed my mind. Being from Trichy as well, I could see the “Trichy Tehzeeb” in that request! Hence this piece, with my wish list not just from the budget but overall from the Modi Sarkar 2.0 from an economic agenda point of view.

I am not an Economist. I am just a keen and informed observer of Indian politics and a well-wisher of our country. So, my points may or may not stand the scrutiny of economists but hopefully will pass muster with the readers of this post. I promise that I am not going to repeat a lot of stuff which has already been suggested by the erudite in their pieces. So, here we go:

First up, the positive effects of implementation of GST and the kicking off of several infrastructural projects from the 1^st term will start bearing fruits in the coming 2/3 years. So, I suggest that the 5 year term till May 2024 be divided into 2 parts – First 3 years till 2022 and the second 2 years till 2024. Take all the tough decisions in the 1^st part and use the 2^nd to stabilise things.
Second, in Modi 1.0, there have been quite a few hits but some misses too. In the 2^nd term, on the back of a solid mandate, Team Modi should play on the front foot with confidence, while at the same time leaving alone deliveries outside the stumps and negotiating short pitched deliveries and bouncers with alacrity. In governance parlance, this means implementing even the not so populist decisions with confidence and not getting muddled in unwanted distractions.
Third, please request the economic ministries to come up with a list of things to be done to rev up the economy which is stuttering. Divide this list into 3.
- 1 – Low hanging fruits which don’t need legislative backing
- 2 – Which need bills to be amended, passed in the parliament
- 3 – which need the states to take action

Get going on this list systematically. Have a target of 60 days to accomplish everything in the 1^st list. This will give a clear message to all stake holders that this government is not the one to rest in its electoral success laurels!

Fourth, you are now in Japan and there is a lot we could learn from the Japanese in terms of going about things. One of the things I learnt from working in a Japanese company is “Prioritisation”! As Indians, we tend to focus on 100 things at the same time and spreading ourselves extremely thin. This was one grudge I had on Modi 1.0 which embarked upon so many projects simultaneously like Make in India, Skill India, Stand up India, Digital India, Smart City project, Ujwala programme and so on. If you closely measure the success, it is only the programmes which had focus like Ujwala, Rural electrification, Rural housing that met with success. In Modi 2.0, I would suggest that the Government takes up a maximum of 2 or 3 projects at a time, focus on the delivery with finite timelines and then move on to the next set of 2/3 ideas. This is what Japanese do.
Fifth, in India we have been talking of linking outcomes to outlays. But seldom has the same been acted upon. So, in the coming budget presentation on the 5^th of July, please do not announce plain outlays but outlays that can be linked to quantifiable outcomes.
Sixth, we usually see that in the budget, there are many outlays which are just carried forward year after year with a % increment or a % cut. For example, since 2013, money from Central Budget has been allocated to Nirbhaya fund to support initiatives towards ensuring women safety. One really doesn’t know how this fund is being utilised and after 5 years what this fund has achieved. This is just one example. In every budget, there are many sundry allocations like this. Please review item-wise outlays in the last 3 budgets, respective outcomes achieved and allocate outlays in the coming budgets only if they make sense.
Seventh, considering the state of the economy, there is a need to mobilise resources to generate income and keep fiscal deficit under check. As Prime Minister Modi has been talking of “Minimum Government and Maximum Governance” one way of mobilising resources is by Government exiting many businesses that are no longer strategic in nature and monetising those assets. In Modi 1.0, in every budget, we had an item called “Proceeds from disinvestment” and this was achieved by making some PSUs like LIC pick up shares from the disinvested PSUs. During NDA-1 under Vajpayee, there was a clear focus on “Real” Disinvestment with a full-fledged ministry and a determined minister like Arun Shourie doggedly pursuing it. UPA did away with this and since then Modi 1.0 included, there has been no serious disinvestment in the country. I suggest that Modi 2.0 take this up seriously. A functional ministry named as “Monetisation of PSU Assets” (since disinvestment is seen as a bad word) should be formed. I also add that the proceeds from this monetisation be parked in a separate account and used for welfare schemes. By this, any criticism of the move can be countered by demonstrating that the proceeds of the same are being used for social welfare. A creative way needs to be found for accounting like this.
Eighth, in Modi 1.0, there was a big push towards infrastructure projects like highways and roads which was really commendable. The same should be continued with additional vigour. However, as admitted by Nitin Gadkari the pace of the projects could have been faster but for complex land acquisition issues. This is a big issue even today. In the 1^st term, after initial belligerence, the government chickened out of the much needed amendments on the Land Acquisition bill. I remember Modi taking this up with rigour in 2014 basically because all the states identified certain provisions in the existing Land Acquisition bill as impediments for timely closure of infra projects. Since the states are equal stake holders in this issue, please have discussions with a fresh outlook, strike a consensus and pass the amendments to the bill smoothly in both houses of the parliament. Renaming this as “Land Partnership bill” or something like that instead of the negative sounding Land Acquisition bill will help too to remove the negative connotation around this!
Ninth, taxation in India is still complex. GST implementation was a landmark Tax reform. I am sure there is a road map towards further simplifying the same with reduced tax slabs and simplifying procedures. Now, in this term please focus on Direct taxes. I hope that the panel working on overhaul of this will submit their recommendations quickly and your government should adopt the same ASAP. In simple terms, the mantra should be lower tax rates with no or very few genuine exemptions. Some of the exemption clauses we have are weird and defy all logic. For example the current clauses we have for LTA exemptions for salaried. Applicable for 2 years in a block of 4 that being calculated from the year 1986 and so on!!! Someone needs to do a Zero based hard look at all the existing exemptions for personal and corporate taxation and do away with most of them which don’t make sense in this day and age!
Tenth and the last one. On the 5^th July when you leave your office for the parliament to present the budget, your team will hand over a brand new brown brief case which will have the budget speech. You and your team will pose with that brief case for the cameras and then you will read out the budget speech from the bunch of documents. And here’s what I suggest. Please, please do away with this brief case and the papers. Instead, amble along in style, pose for cameras with your hands “free” and as you rise to present the budget in the parliament hall, download the speech from the ministry’s secure server and project it in a large screen. Doing away with the rambling, long speech that would be just uber cool, while at the same time giving a push towards Prime Minister’s “Digital India” dream!

Pic Courtesy: Livemint

Single party majority sarkar or Coalition sarkar?

Last week, parts of a speech of our National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval made headlines. Speaking at the Sardar Patel memorial lecture, Doval said that India needs a strong, stable and decisive government for the next 10 years. He also predicted that weak coalitions will be bad for India.

While I was reading this, I was reminded of another speech made by Y.V.Reddy, Former Governor of RBI some time in 2017. “Interestingly, the highest growth in India from 1990 to 2014 was really during coalition governments… So, in a way it is consensus based… in Indian situation, a coalition probably produces better economic results than a strong government,” Mr. Reddy told a Washington audience on September 27.

From the two specks of wisdom, we can assume that while the former spoke from security point of view, the latter did from economic point of view. While I don’t remember many reactions to Y.V. Reddy’s opinion then, Doval’s speech has triggered a lot of rebuttals, primary one being, this piece from The Print’s Shekhar Gupta where he has argued that majority governments in the past including that of Rajiv Gandhi’s in the 80’s and the present one of Narendra Modi have not been better off significantly than the few coalition governments we had in between!

Without going back too much back in time, I would like to focus on the present majority government of the BJP in this post. By the evening of 16^th May, 2014 when it was clear that BJP against all expectations and pre-poll predictions, was hitting the half way mark on their own, there was euphoria all around. Even among the non-BJP loyalists, there was visible excitement of how a majority government can decisively take the country forward without having to constantly look over its shoulders. By nature, coalition governments formed mostly through post poll alliances come with the spectre of instability. So, here was a government finally which had the numbers on its own and a two third majority with its allies. So, can’t blame the public at large including the author if they thought that Acche Din finally arrived for India!

In India, we have had a long history of taking one step forward and few steps backward. Unfortunately this did not change even with a single party government with a decisive leader at its helm as we found soon enough in 2014. We soon found that adequate majority in Lok Sabha is not enough and that the government needs numbers in Rajya Sabha also to be effectively called as a “true majority Sarkar”! And for that, the wait needed to be longer – another 5 years or so!

As per me, the virtues of a single party majority Sarkar got exposed when this government failed to get the amendments in the Land Acquisition Bill passed. In his 1^st meeting with the Chief Ministers, Narendra Modi was reported to have got the feedback from most of the CMs (including of the Congress) that the tough and impractical clauses in the Land Acquisition Bill presented the single biggest challenge in getting many infrastructure projects off the ground. The government went about making changes in the provisions and tried to pass the bill. But couldn’t get the bill passed through in Rajya Sabha where the Congress and the Left blocked it effectively. The majority government then tried to use the Ordinance route many times but finally gave up, coming under the cloud of Rahul Gandhi’s Suit Boot Sarkar jibe! As we speak, in spite of this Government’s intent and drive towards kicking off many infrastructure projects, land acquisition continues to be the biggest impediment in meeting deadlines for large game changing projects!

Here, I feel that a coalition Sarkar of the stable type as NDA-1 run by Vajpayee or the UPA-1 run by Manmohan Singh, would have handled this differently. By engaging with the respective oppositions through dialogues and agreeing to give and take on a few provisions. Since many Congress CMs were on board on the changes to the Land Acquisition Bill, dialogues with the Congress party leadership through some of these CMs would have probably done the trick leaving the Left isolated on this. As we all know now, in the initial days of this government, its single point agenda was to isolate the Congress. What if the government had given the status of the Leader of Opposition to the Congress in the Lok Sabha as a quid pro quo to getting their support to a few important bills in the Rajya Sabha? Machiavelli or our own Chanakya would have been proud, isn’t it?

In spite of this initial setback though crucial, I do believe that the Modi Sarkar was flying high in that period. From bringing Swachh Bharat to national discourse to bringing back India at the top of investment destinations worldwide, Modi Sarkar could not make a single false move, but that was till November 2016! With the confidence in the Indian economy back and aided by windfall gains from low crude prices, one thought that the Universe was finally beginning to conspire to make India successful. Again that was still November 2016!

In November 2016, Modi Sarkar took on the Universe and went ahead with Demonetisation. What seemed a master stroke initially to suck out black money, soon turned out to be an ill-conceived and ill – executed move that set the economy back by a year or so. The much lauded ‘Jugaad’ mentality of Indians came to party, the result of which we could finally get to see. As much as 99.3% of the junked 500 and 1,000 rupee notes returned to the banking system!! While it is to the credit of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi that his government came out unscathed with its credibility intact or grown even after this very huge miss-step, I wonder if a major decision like this could have been taken without taking the coalition partners into confidence if it was a coalition government. And in the same token, I do feel that the collective wisdom of a coalition cabinet would not have let this move go at least without proper checks, balances and preparations!

I certainly would not add the introduction of GST as a miss-step of this government as many are doing, as I firmly believe that GST was a long-awaited reform and in the introduction of the same, Modi Sarkar learnt its lessons and behaved like a coalition government in listening to and taking all parties on board. The result is there to see. GST is a reality now and after initial hiccups as can be expected from any path breaking reform, the benefits are trickling down with the GDP showing clear signs of recovery in the past few quarters.

A majority government led by a decisive leader provides for great optics particularly from foreign countries’ point of view. And that has its own benefits as major powers would like to believe that the Government/leader they are engaging across the table has the backing of the popular mandate. However, in practice, I have now come to feel that a coalition government led by a party with a fair share of numbers led by a decisive leader may be ideal for a diverse country like India. In that, we do get the advantage of the collective wisdom of alternate views while, the virtues of the decisive leader are also not missed out.

Or going a step further, a majority government with a decisive leader which behaves like a coalition government by not taking key, strategic decisions without passing by the collective wisdom of alternate brains! In short, institutionalizing the “GST Introduction model” for all key decisions!

So going back to the speeches of Y.V.Reddy and Ajit Doval, both may be correct. In parts! Just that like in many aspects in India, the ideal situation may be somewhere in between!

Modi Sarkar and the Gita Saar!!!

As Modi Sarkar completes 3 years in office this week, the media is abound with pieces on the hits and misses. Depending upon who the author is and his/her political leanings, the pieces portray either a Glass Half Full or Half Empty picture. Very few have been honest portrayals.

As Aam Aadmis, it’s but natural that our opinions are influenced by what we read/see in the media. So per what we see these days, the economy is doing rather well – India is the fastest growing economy in the planet. The stock markets are on fire and at historical highs! India’s consumer price Inflation stands lowest since we started publishing consumer price index in 2012. In the past weeks the Rupee has been strengthening Vs. the Dollar though this is a double-edged sword. FDI has been seeing record inflows.

And if you go by some of the pronouncements of the Govt. there again the last 3 years have been very busy for the Govt. of India. Infrastructure projects mainly on Roads and Railways have been unleashed like never before. Govt. has been kicking off programs like Make in India, Skill India, Start up India,..,.. to increase the employment and employability across sectors. Price control though a very socialistic intervention has been resorted to particularly in the healthcare sector to prevent fleecing of the common man. Programmes like Jan Dhan Yojana, Swachh Bharat and Aadhar have been given a fresh impetus right from the top.

In the 1^st 18 months, the Prime Minister took it upon himself to travel to countries that mattered to signal the change and restore confidence on the India Story. The results have been emphatic. World over, it is now acknowledged that this Govt. under Modi is on a crucial transformative path and probably this time this is for real and long-term. (In the past India always flattered to deceive). The inflow of FDI and announcements of various projects in Mfg. and Infrastructure are there to see.

So far so good.

While this is the flavor in the media by and large, it will be interesting to know what the sense on the ground is. If one goes by electoral results as in a democracy it is the barometer of an incumbent Govt.’s performance, there are no two ways about Modi Sarkar. By and large in all types of elections, Modi and his government have got a thumbs up from the electorate. In Economic times’ survey of the Indian Industry, the Industry has clearly thrown its weight behind Modi Sarkar.

In Britain, mid-term opinion polls ask a simple question to respondents: “Are you better off today than you were three years ago?” It would be interesting to know the outcome if somebody does a similar mid-term poll in India to understand what’s in peoples’ mind.

My hunch is that the response will be a farrago of sorts. First, that the conditions on the ground are yet to change. And, second that still the people are happy with the Govt.’s performance. And yet this is fully understandable. For all the economic indicators and the efforts which have been put in by the Indian Govt. so far, on the ground, results are yet to show up. The fastest growing economy or the influx of FDI or the flag ship programmes kicked off by the Govt. or the massive increase in infrastructure spending and the many other initiatives are yet to result in changes in the life of the common man. In terms of jobs/increased disposable incomes to workers, farmers, middle class,.. And yet no one seems to complain. People still have immense hope on the Prime Minister and his Sarkar.

This is where the Saar (essence) of Bhagavad Gita comes in. In Chapter 2, Verse 47 of the Gita, Lord Krishna says, “You have the right to work only but never to its fruits. Let not the fruits of action be your motive, nor let your attachment be to inaction.”

representative visual

The public so far seem to be satisfied as long as their Govt. is earnest in their intentions and seen to be carrying out their job sincerely. The hope being that this is still “Work In Progress” and results will follow sooner or later. The common man’s response to Demonetisation is a good example of this behavior.

It looks like the Govt. is also taking this Gita Saar seriously and moving forward on a mission mode without getting too much flustered by the noise around it. I must say here that while this is true for most of the ministries, there are some which have not taken the Gita Essence seriously. I am not sure if the Smart City project has gone beyond announcement of a list of cities. No one knows what the Ministry of Agriculture is up to in transforming the agricultural landscape which has been fraught with draught related woes at times and flood related at other times. That is to name a few.

So when the PM does a review of the performance of ministries on completion of 3 years, we hope he cracks the whip on those who have not taken their mission seriously. And reminds them of their Karma and another gem from the same Gita which says, “The meaning of Karma is in the intention. The intention behind action is what matters”. And declares, Abki Baar Gita Saar!!!

Abki Baar Kabali da!!!

First up – this is not a review of the film Kabali. This post is also not about the Rajini cult. As I was exiting the multiplex in a Mumbai suburb yesterday after my date with Kabali, my mind couldn’t resist from flirting with a very strange comparison. Though from completely different domains – one from Kollywood and the other politics, the similarities slowly emerging between the situations post Kabali release and post Modi Sarkar @ 2 were intriguing.

Here was Kabali – Rajinikanth’s latest film releasing in July 2016 after 2 successive flop outings namely Kochadaiyaan and Lingaa. For this one, Rajini reportedly decided to come out of his comfort zone of his usual team and work with newcomers right from the Director (Pa. Ranjith) and other technicians. The teaser which hit the screens became a massive hit and took the expectations to another planet.

Similarly in 2014, BJP led NDA was making a bid to return to power after 2 failures at the hustings. This time with a new PM face called Narendra Modi. The Modi campaign hit the right notes with an across the board appeal setting massive expectations not only among voters in the country but also observers all over the world.

Riding on the wave of the pre-release excitement and hype, Kabali released in 1000’s of screens worldwide. The buzz was so much that even folks in North India who don’t eulogize Rajini (or may be they do) so much didn’t want to be left out. 3^rd day post the release and as I write this, Kabali has reportedly smashed all Indian box office records for a film opening.

There, cashing on the back of a lacklustre leadership of the UPA regime for 5 years, a promise of strong governance and a string of other promises, Modi lead BJP won an absolute majority and strode back to power.

Catch lines from the film teaser – like Kabali da, Neruppu da,.. became a part of day-to-day lexicon and of course myriad jokes. Memes and Dubsmashes based on the teaser have been setting the web on fire since the teaser released.

On the other side, “Abki baar Modi Sarkar” – the catchy tag line of the Modi campaign became a part of marketing Hall of fame. So much that, David Cameron pinched the punch line to appeal to Indian voters in the UK.

“Magizhchi” (Happy) a phrase which Rajini uses often in the film to sign off with visitors has been appropriated even by my mom these days in phone calls!

The phrase “Achhe Din” (Good days) which Modi promised during the campaign is in everybody’s lips when talking of the present Govt.

It’s my view that the difference between a flop/hit and a super hit depends upon how a film appeals to a casual film goer. When a Salman’s film releases, invariably the bhai’s fans watch it irrespective of how the film is. Ditto for a Vijay’s film or a SRK’s product. But post good reviews and viral feedback when the film attracts the non-fans, it is termed as a good film and a super hit thereof.

Same in politics. A party’s core supporter votes for the party irrespective. But when a party impresses the non-core supporters that’s when they are able to win with a majority or a landslide. We saw this in 2014 Loksabha elections, Delhi state elections and later in Bihar,…

2 days into the release, the reviews on Kabali have been mixed. The diehard fans of Rajini obviously are satisfied with the film and seem to be o.k with it. The neutral or casual film goers seem to be absolutely disappointed with the film. The critics have mostly panned the film as a forgettable one. And in general the view is that though Rajini himself has done a great job he is weighed down by the script. Other view is that if one watches the film sans any expectations associated with a Rajini film, then you will not be so disappointed. Then there are those who put the blame on the over hype created over the movie which eventually just couldn’t measure up. It’s also possible that even Rajini fans are a bit disappointed but are very nice to express it vocally.

2 years into Modi Sarkar, isn’t the verdict similar to the above? The core BJP voters are of course happy with the Govt. unequivocally. For the non-party affiliated voter, Achhe Din are yet to come. And for critics in the media, the Modi Sarkar has been an abject failure in many counts. In the many opinion polls Modi is still rated very high and still towers over his Govt’s performance. Many routinely blame the “chunavi jumlas” and the resultant hype created around Black money return, on curbing food prices, 56” in Chaatthi,… during 2014 elections.

So getting the drift?

For both Rajini and Modi Sarkar, considering the situation, it’s easy to say that they should have not created such a huge hype. And that they should have kept expectations low.

The reality is for a film today that too of the scale of Rajini, much of the recovery has to happen within the 1^st weekend. With Torrents of the world leaking good prints within few hours of the release the producer obviously is in the receiving end of technology. If a film is not promoted well, he can’t expect any opening. If the film is actually very good probably he has a chance of extending the run for a few weekends and make money. But knowing the audience reaction is an art I guess no film maker has perfected.

Similarly, going back to 2014, If Modi had not run such an aggressive campaign, the results would have been similar to what happened in 2009. The appeal to non-core voters would not have materialized and an absolute majority would have been elusive.

What next for the Superstar? His project Enthiran-2 (Robot-2) with ace Director Shankar is already on the floors. There is a good possibility that it will be a “Shankar’s film” as much as “Rajini’s film” and hence a good chance to redeem himself. But it will be interesting to see Rajini’s next move beyond Enthiran-2 now that the reaction for Kabali is out. What I wrote after Lingaa (Read Here) very much remains valid.

And for Modi Sarkar there are still 3 years to deliver on the promises. We see a lot of positive structural changes being undertaken on the Governance front. Hopefully they will start yielding results come 2018.

Come 2019, we will once again get to witness the two re-runs. A “Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar” campaign from Modi. And for our own Super star, when his next film after Enthiran-2 probably releases – a more emphatic “Naan Thirumbi vanthutennu sollu” (I’m back,….) cry or so we pray!

Postscript: Similarities end here. When asked to rate Modi Sarkar at 2, many gave ratings of 5, 8, and 9,.. on a scale of 10.

But for Rajini’s Kabali – on a scale of 1-10, the rating is Rajini!!!

anandkumarrs

Random expressions of a Wannabe

Modi Sarkar