Coming of age of the Indian voter and a Wake-up call for the States!

This article has been written for the news website Newslaundry and was published on the 4th of Oct, 2019. You may read the same here:

https://www.newslaundry.com/2019/11/04/a-wake-up-call-to-states-its-time-to-invest-in-good-governance-to-win-assembly-polls

The latest season in the continuous cycle of elections in India ended last week, this time the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana. The dust hasn’t quite settled since Maharashtra still hasn’t seen its next government, even after what seemed like a clear verdict in favour of a pre-poll alliance. It can’t get stranger than this!

However, a detailed look at the results of the state elections before and after the Lok Sabha polls reveals a pattern. It discloses the coming-of-age of the Indian voter. Here’s how, and why.

May 2018: Karnataka state election 

The Congress, which governed the state in the last term, received a clear verdict against the party in Karnataka. At the same time, the Bharatiya Janata Party, while emerging as the single largest party, fell short of majority. However, in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll almost a year later, the BJP got an overwhelming mandate winning 25 of the 28 seats on offer.

November 2018: Madhya Pradesh state election 

The BJP, which had helmed the state for three terms, was unseated by an anti-incumbency vote. The party was pipped by the Congress. Yet, in the May 2019 parliamentary poll just six months later, the BJP swept the state, winning 27 of the 28 seats!

November 2018: Chhattisgarh state election

Here also, the BJP was voted out by a strong “against” vote and the Congress captured the state with a decisive mandate. It’s vote share was just 33 per cent. In the May 2019 Lok Sabha election, the story was different. The BJP won nine of 11 seats with a vote share of 50.9 per cent.

November 2018: Rajasthan state election

Again, the state went against the incumbent party, the BJP, and voted the Congress to power. But in the Lok Sabha poll, the BJP swept the state with a decisive vote share of 58.47 per cent, winning 24 out of 25 seats. Even the final seat went to an ally of the BJP.

December 2018: Telangana state election

The Telangana Rashtra Samithi managed to beat anti-incumbency in the state and retained power with an overwhelming mandate. It got a three-fourth majority and won 88 of 119 seats. The Lok Sabha poll flipped this win: TRS secured only nine out of 17 seats.

May 2019: Odisha state election

The governing Biju Janata Dal returned to power with a decisive mandate, winning 111 of a total of 147 seats in the Assembly. There was no trace of anti-incumbency. In the Lok Sabha poll held simultaneously, the BJD managed to win only 12 of 21 seats. Its vote share also fell by 1.9 per cent.

October 2019: Maharashtra state election

The BJP and its ally, the Shiv Sena, secured 161 seats with a combined vote share of 42.16 per cent. As a pre-poll alliance, they managed to get a majority. This result comes six months after the Lok Sabha poll, where the same coalition had bagged 41 of the 48 seats with a comfortable vote share of 51.34 per cent. What this means is the alliance lost a vote share of 9.18 per cent in just six months!

October 2019: Haryana state election

Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it fell short of a majority. Only with the support of the Jannayak Janata Party could the BJP eventually form the government. Compare this with the Lok Sabha election where the BJP won all 10 seats in the state, implying it lost a vote share of almost 21.71 per cent in the Assembly election.

Only in the northeastern states of Tripura and Nagaland, where the state elections happened in February 2018, the electorate voted for the BJP alliance in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

What are voters looking for?

Voters know what they’re doing. There are different combinations: voting for the same party in state and central polls; different parties being given the mandate in the state and central polls; or the extent of mandate differing if the same party wins in both elections.

If this trend holds — which I believe it will — this augurs well for Indian democracy. The voter is sending a clear signal that she understands the issues for which she is voting in a particular election. This is different from the general commentariat opinion that voters do not know what they are voting for.

This brings us to the next section of this piece: understanding the different issues voters vote for in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Glancing at the results of the 2014 and 2019 general elections, here’s a quick breakdown of what, perhaps, voters are voting for in the Lok Sabha poll.

– For a face. The Lok Sabha polls are increasingly becoming presidential. Voters like to know the face of the prime minister they’re voting for. If parties do not project a clear prime ministerial face, they start with a handicap.

– For a party whose leader is seen to be strong, decisive and communicative.

– For a party’s stance on nationalistic issues related to India’s defence policies, the way we deal with our neighbours, the way we conduct our foreign policy, and so on.

– For a party’s overarching welfare programmes related to health, education and other issues.

– For an overall image of an honest, non-corrupt and functional government.

On the flipside, a voter clearly expects their state government to deliver on day-to-day issues like living conditions, infrastructure and delivery of the Centre’s welfare programmes.

Hence my hypothesis that the emerging voting pattern must serve as a wakeup call to the states to double down on governance issues. Even if a party receives an overwhelming mandate in the Lok Sabha polls, it does not translate to a resounding mandate in an Assembly poll unless it gets its act together on delivery of governance. States can no longer ride on the charisma of a central leader if they haven’t done their bit on the governance front.

It’s also time the commentariat shifts its focus and scrutinises the governance levels of states. This means analysing state budgets and not just the Union budget, and regularly evaluating a state’s financial health. It implies comparing the appetite for reforms within states, not just at a central level.

I firmly believe next generation reforms, which can make a difference to the economy, lie at the doorsteps of our states. Labour reforms, DISCOM reforms, land acquisition reforms, PDS reforms, agricultural reforms — multiple issues related to the daily livelihood of the poor are in the hands of states. It’s time chief ministers wake up to this and invest in running key ministries at a state level that deliver governance. If the results of the last few Assembly elections haven’t served as a wake-up call to the states — nothing will.

The Making of Modi 2.0!

As the results of the much anticipated Lok Sabha elections in India unfold themselves this day, it is clear that Narendra Damodardas Modi is all set to occupy the Prime Minister’s chair of India once again. In this avatar of Modi 2.0, BJP is looking set to get a majority on its own and NDA as a pre poll alliance is expected to beat its 2014 tally! First things first. This is a remarkable feat for an incumbent to not just return but return with a better performance than the 1st term and so kudos are in order!

As much as the return of Modi as the prime minister was expected to a large extent, the scale and the ease of this victory was not expected till some of the exit polls predicted so. What were we told all this while? “Demonetisation hurt jobs and the poor. GST is still hurting traders. There is agrarian crisis all over. Job creation has hit a historic low. Minority are living under increasing fear. Economy is not growing enough. And since 2014, the Idea of India has been threatened”. And much more. So, in spite of the fact this this government did perform in areas of infrastructure like roads, highways, railways…, asset building in rural areas, reaching electricity to the hinterland,…,… we were told that these were not enough to re-elect Modi again that too with a clear majority.

That being the case, what explains this massive victory? What is behind the making of Modi 2.0? I call it the story of “M”s!

M for Modi: – Let there be no doubt in anyone’s mind people on this. People have not voted for BJP or the NDA. They have unequivocally voted for Narendra Modi! States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan which were lost by BJP are now being swept by them!  Modi has been seen as being earnest in his endeavour to fulfil promises he made. So, even if ALL the promises were not kept fully, people are being kind enough to give another chance. Programmes like Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Demonetisation, Toilet construction, rural electrification and Ujwala Yojana… are being seen as sincere attempts in improving living conditions in India. Though some of the programmes like Demonetisation faltered, people were willing to forgive and forget!

M for Muscular leadership: I will have to narrate an anecdote here to elaborate this point. A day before polling in Mumbai, my 11 year old daughter’s friend asked my wife as to whom she would vote.  My wife asked why she wanted to know that. And her response left me stunned. “Aunty, I hope you will vote for Modi. Because only he can give a fitting response to Pakistan. India in the past never entered Pakistan and hit them. But under Modiji, humne ghuske maara”!  This was the impact a strong leader leaves in the minds of the young.  Critics may call it mindless belligerence when Modi decided to do a surgical strike and follow it up with an air strike. But people want their leaders to show spine in matters of their country’s defence.

M for Mission mode: This is the difference between Vajpayee/Advani era BJP and Modi/Shah BJP. During NDA-1, after forming the government and running a reasonably good one at that for 6 years, BJP did not do anything to widen their base. But the BJP under Modi/Shah is a different kettle of fish. After having won a decisive mandate in 2014, did they keep quiet? They got into “Mission mode” in North East and then later Bengal and the results are there to see. For BJP, if 2014 was UP story, 2019 is Bengal+UP story! In 2019, when it was facing the spectre of the SP-BSP-RJD gathbandan, BJP activated its “Mission mode” to target 300 on its own! This by targeting areas like Orissa, Bengal and North East.

M for Machinery: This is linked to the above. That is of having a plan and executing the plan through an effective machinery. The party machinery under the leadership of Amit Shah works relentlessly in expanding their base within India. Not just during election time. This also means that BJP will now target states like Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu next probably for 2024!

M for last Mile Delivery: It is one thing to announce programs. It is one thing to have a strategy in the board room. It is another thing to ensure last Mile delivery. Whether it is Jan Dhan Yojana or Ujwala Yojana or other Yojanas, Modi Government’s track record on last mile delivery has certainly made a difference to people. This is what has made BJP and Modi to hold on to their leads even in the face of a combined opposition in states like UP.

M for Marketing: The word “Marketing” is often derided upon as if it is a bad word! As a marketing professional myself, I have resented it often. And I have said that Marketing is not a bad thing at all and is a critical element in a product’s success or failure. In political arena, for a leader or for a party, it is not just enough to perform. But it is important to be “seen as performing”! In that sense, BJP as a party and Modi as a leader are miles ahead in terms of marketing themselves.  Some would say that Modi’s success is all about just marketing! I tend to disagree. One should not forget the fundamental mantra that even great marketing cannot save a bad product!  One can write a separate blog on BJP’s marketing but turning the Chowkidar Chor hai slogan of Congress on its head as Main bhi Chowkidar campaign in its favour is one example of some great marketing by BJP!

M for Models: One reason for Modi in the 1st place to earn credibility in 2014 was his famed “Gujarat model”. This credibility is important for people to take your promises seriously. And this is the problem with the opposition today. The main opposition party doesn’t have any credible model to point the people to! If today, the Congress promises “Nyay”, people are reluctant to take it seriously. Because, even in states which are ruled by Congress, they find it difficult to hold on. If Congress has to be taken seriously in future, they need to develop their own “models” which they can positively refer to.

I hear some of you saying that it is all just one “M” which is Modi! No victory is accomplished with one factor. It is usually a combination of factors. I believe that in the making of Modi 2.0, the mantras were the above so many “M”s! Now that Modi 2.0 has been accomplished, it is time to look ahead and focus on the agenda for Modi 2.0.  What should that be? Please look for my next post! For now, M for Mangal!

Pic Courtesy: Rediff