Takeaways on the takeaways from the 2022 election results!

The long election season in India came to an end last week and the results are in line with my forecast in all states except Goa where I thought that BJP will be shunted out this time.

We have been fed with a surfeit of analyses and takeaways by commentators of all hue by way of articles, videos and podcasts. I don’t want to further add to that cacophony by posting my takeaways on the election results. However, I am unable to resist listing my key takeaways on the takeaways of the experts themselves. And here we go:

“Switch” Bharat Abhiyan doesn’t stick: Just before the elections were announced in the UP, we saw a big number of defections mostly from the BJP to SP. These were interpreted by pundits as a pointer to the way the political wind was blowing. In the end however, out of the 21 turncoats who shifted from BJP to SP just before the polls, only 4 won. The big name among this was Swami Prasad Maurya who hogged headlines for at least a week. He lost his own seat. So, the message is, when leaders leave a party just before polls claiming to have not been given justice blah, blah, the reality could be different. They might have sensed that the party may drop them from the contestants list due to their poor performance. We saw this in Bengal also when few leaders jumped from TMC to BJP and they all mostly lost. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan may still be a work In progress but, this “Switch” Bharat Abhiyan is mostly still born!

Differentiate between “Voting” public and “Vocal” public: Reporters doing ground reports often get carried away by the “Vocal” electorate and come to a conclusion for the entire “Voting” electorate. Here, I would like to give an analogy from marketing. When a product or service doesn’t meet the consumer’s expectations, it is very common for him/her to put it out on social media or talk to others about it. But, when the product or service is good and meet the expectations, consumers seldom talk to others or post a review. Negative WOM (Word of Mouth) always trumps positive WOM. It is the same case with voters, I feel. There could be those voters who are not happy with a party and hence tend to be vocal in front of the camera. But, there could be a larger section of voters who could be happy with a government and don’t bother to say anything to reporters. Coming to a conclusion in favour of the vocal public like many commentators did in the recent UP elections is fraught with a high probability of going wrong.

Covid is not Government’s creation: In the run up to the polls and even later, we kept hearing experts talking about how UP government mismanaged Covid and how people will vote out the incumbent BJP government because of that. My point is, if Covid was mismanaged, it was mismanaged by all countries, all states and all administrations all over the world. I don’t think there is any administration that came out covering itself in glory in managing Covid. Even in India, if UP mismanaged Covid, so did Delhi, Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and so on. But commentators were rifle focussed in talking about Covid mismanagement only in UP while not referring to the same in other states. And the larger point is, the common public did not think that Covid was a creation of the Modi Government at the centre or for that matter any state government. Even in West Bengal elections or in Bihar elections, at the peak of the first wave, people did not punish the incumbent governments over Covid. I think there is a clear resignation among public that Covid was a pandemic not created by the governments and that the governments were trying to do their best with their backs against the wall.

Pro-Incumbency doesn’t mean Anti-Incumbency is over: Since BJP won 4 out of 5 states in this round and sort of retained power in all these states, there is an opinion that the time of Anti-Incumbency is over and it’s the time of Pro-Incumbency. Well, this is only partially true in my opinion. Anti-Incumbency is over only if the incumbent is not Congress. The Congress still manages successfully to succumb to Anti-Incumbency in the states they rule. I am not saying this just because Congress lost Punjab this time where it was incumbent. In the recent past, Congress managed to lose power in states like Pondicherry (2021), Karnataka (2018), Tripura (2018), Himachal Pradesh (2017) and so on. Yes, other parties have learnt to overcome Anti-Incumbency by mastering the art of governance and delivery like TMC in Bengal (2021), LDF in Kerala (2021), AAP in Delhi (2020), BJD in Odissa (2019), BJP in Gujarat (2018) and now in four states to sight a few examples. But not the Congress. There is not a single state where Congress has managed to retain the state by demonstrating good governance and thereby projecting a case for Pro-Incumbency. The antithesis from here is that unlike in the past when Anti-incumbency was peddled as an acceptable excuse for losing power by an incumbent government, presently, Anti-Incumbency cannot be an acceptable ruse for a defeat.

Marketing works only if the product is half good: In the beginning of the UP campaign, commentators were talking of how Priyanka Gandhi was running an exceptional campaign in UP with women at the core of the pitch. ‘Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon’ (LHLSH) was hailed as a brilliant campaign. We now know the outcome of that campaign. Even during the campaign, key women faces of the program jumped ship. Any great campaign cannot save a poor or an average product. So, I was surprised that commentators were getting carried away by the LHLSH slogan and were expecting Congress to make an impact. To me, it was of no surprise that the campaign lost steam midway. Same can be said of TMC in Goa where the marketing muscle and resources couldn’t muster a single seat.

In Election Arithmetic, 1+1+1 is not 3: Too many commentators have this habit of summing up individual party’s vote shares in the previous elections to forecast the vote share of an alliance in future elections. As we have seen repeatedly, 1+1+1 need not be 3. It can be 4, if the alliance is on the right side of winning and can be 0.5 if it’s the wrong side of winning. For example, just because RLD tied up with SP this time, the entire JAT vote didn’t shift to SP combine as we were told by experts.

Day-today issues Vs Electoral issues: Increasingly I am seeing that reporters and experts talk to people on the streets on their issues and tend to conclude that they are key “electoral” issues based on which voters would eventually vote for a party. For example, in UP, commentators were talking of “stray cattle” as a big poll issue going against the BJP government. It is obvious to anyone as daylight that BJP as a party will never get punished for an issue like “stray cattle” that too when Yogi Adityanath who has been a votary of Cow protection is the Chief Minister. Also, can anyone tell me when Mehengayee (Price increase) and Berozgaari (Unemployment) have not been issues in India? These have been perennial issues in India and at least in the last 30 years, voters have not started voting for or against a party on these issues. These issues are taken as given and voters weigh in their mind as to which party can provide them with more opportunities to get over these issues rather than tackle these issues per se.

In India, elections come sooner than IPL. Just as we finish this round, we will have the next round of state elections towards the end of the year. And if you just kept hearing that UP is the most crucial test for BJP in the last few months, you will soon start hearing that Gujarat is the ultimate test for BJP and Modi in the run up to 2024. And the question, “Is 2024 a done deal for the BJP?” will keep coming up till the exit polls of 2024!!

Cartoon credit: Manjul

An Ode to the Odd – Even Formula!!!

In a few hours from now, the capital city of India – Delhi will be at odds with the rest of the country in terms of daily commuting. For a few days now, the aam admi of the city has been at odds over their Aam Oddmi Party Govt’s big idea to improve their city’s air. The city’s Odd – Even Car formula by which Odd number cars are allowed on odd number days and Even numbered cars on even days is expected to cause much inconvenience and agony to the public or so it is fraught. Though the intention of the Govt. to clean up the city’s air has been noble, few odd questions arise over the decision making process and the execution of the Odd – Even scheme. Comparisons of Arvind Kejriwal with Mohammad Bin Tughluq another erstwhile ruler of Delhi who was notoriously popular for his decision making skills are odious but not completely off the mark. Almost everyone I met in Delhi ever since this scheme has been announced was of the opinion that this audacious decision has been taken in haste without giving a thought on the implications where the public transport is lacking in terms of network and the public lacking in terms of social conscience. The Government’s view has been that this is only one of the slew of measures taken to reduce the air pollution and is being done considering the oddinary citizen’s health. The odded benefit would also be the improvement in the city’s traffic with reduced vehicles on the road or so they claim. So now what will happen if taking a leaf from Mr Kejriwal’s book many others try to introduce their version of Odd – Even scheme to find a solution to other problems?

Like In Tirupati temple where there is huge crowd every day. They can introduce Odd – Even Scheme wherein on Odd Days only people born on Odd days will be allowed 😁. This will help the oddministration in better crowd control,.. Even the lines in Loddu Prasad counters will be halved😁😁. Based on the success here the same can be duplicated in other places of worship where huge crowds throng like Sabarimala, Siddhi Vinayak temple, Vaishnodevi, Haji Ali,…
Like oddopting this scheme in the Railways reservation site irctc.co.in – which usually crashes or is very slow due to the rush of people using it day and day out. By this scheme on Odd days people travelling on odd days only can book tickets and so on😁.
Like following this in Mumbai suburban trains which transports probably 10 times its rated capacity every day. By letting only people born on odd days to travel on odd days – straightaway the cro(w)dd will be reduced to 5 times its rated capacity😁. Its performance will improve by leaps and bounds I’m sure.
Like copy pasting this scheme for the parliament functioning or rather nonfunctioning. Allow ruling party to disrupt on odd days and opposition parties to create ruckus on even days. By this our parliament will still not function (but who cares) but the proceedings will be more presentable while watching on TV 😁😁.
Like implementing this Odd Even formula instead of total prohibition in states. You don’t then miss out on the tax collections but at the same time end up partially controlling the so called ills of drinking. Next time the Tasmac bar opens in the morning – there will be only half the number of Bevoddas 😁😁
Like Sanjay Leela Bhansali and Shah Rukh agreeing to oddopt this formula when they want to release their films together. SRK films will be shown at even time shows (2.00 pm, 4.00 pm,..) and Bhansalis’ at odd time shows😁. By this both will manage to divide and rule while keeping their respective egos at odds.
Like the Ecom sites (Flipkart, Amazon,..) coming to an agreement on using the Odd Even system. Flipkart will run its shopping festivals on Odd days and Amazon on Even days. For Aam oddmi – it is everyday celebration!
Like the Central Government internalizing this Odd Even program for Population control. Enacting a law (if Rajya Sabha functions that is) whereby people staying in Odd numbered houses will have sex on Odd days and so on,..😁😁 This will turn out to be better than distribution of free coddoms!
,…,…

We can go odd and odd 😜😜

What an Oddea Sirji? Isn’t it odd that it took so long for somebody to come up with such a Big Idea that could solve our country’s many ills??

Soon India will become a country that went against the odds and came up trumps!

On that odd note – whether you are born on an odd day or even day – no Odd – Even formula here – my wishes to you for a fantastic year filled with happiness and great health😁😁😁

Aam Aadmi Petti!!!

It is that time of the season in Mumbai typically the onset of summer (Apr-Jun or the AMJ Qtr for those in sales 😉) when I equip myself with higher liquidity than normal. The equities get sold, the many mutual funds get redeemed, some dead wood furniture and the like gets sold (in OLX ofcourse 😉 😉) in short except for the immovable assets which essentially means the roof above my head and the 4 wheeler I use to commute get liquidated to raise cash. As much as possible. Even the previous 3 months (ending March) which is “taxing times” for salaried class, somehow gets managed without reaching out for assets disposal. But come April and if you want to enjoy the Aam (Mango) season that too the pedigreed variety like the Alphonso one doesn’t have any other choice but to cash the assets 😜😜

If one year the prices of the Alphonso mangoes are high because of supply constraints owing to draught in Maharashtra, then next year it is higher due to supply constraints due to excessive monsoon. Another year, the prices are high due to excessive supply as the producers had to incur additional expenses in proper storage and transportation!!! Last year when the EU banned the exports of Indian Alphonso Aams I was one among many Aam Aadmi who had our Schadenfreude moment – gloating that the glut in the market due to the ban will lead to falling prices. But little did I realise that Alphonso is not called King of Mangoes for no reason – It defies all applied laws of economics. Supply and Demand rules can go to hell 😒😒

Even after spending so many years in Mumbai (20 years though in parts the wife usually the one who is good at dates, years, names,…in the house reminds 😄) I am yet to come to terms with the Mumbaikar’s unending obsession with the Alphonso! In the initial years in Mumbai I used to be flummoxed when train conversations in summer would invariably veer around the Happoos (another name for the Alphonso) next only to customary antics of the Sena or the diatribe of its leader the previous day in some interview/public meeting. Frankly speaking, when I tasted Alphonso for the 1^st time I couldn’t fathom why this Aam (common) Aam was revered so much. Having spent most of my childhood years in Trichy, a small city in Tamil Nadu, the fuss about Alphonso was too much to bear. Trichy apart from being popular for the many famed temples (Rockfort, Srirangam, Thiruvanai Koil,..) also used to house a place called Mambazha Chalai (Mango farm) where private owners cultivated Mangoes. These farms called Thathachariar Gardens spread around many hectares were embodiment of horticultural experiments around Mangoes in those days itself. So every year, new cross breeds use to hit the market – bettering the previous year in terms of size, taste and also price! My memory deceives me now preventing the recap of the names of the species though I can remember vividly one called Imam Pasand (whoever said Tamils hate Hindi 😄). Apart from this, we also used to get a flood of stocks from nearby towns like Salem which had its own varieties like Malgova, Neelam, Banganapalli,… Many people (other than Mumbaikars ofcourse 😄😄) who have tasted the Neelam variety have confessed that it tastes very close to the Alphonso and in fact a tad better. And I agree. The only problem is you find insects inside the mangoes more often than not. So I realized that the Alphonso became the King of Mangoes because of better marketing, reach and better managed supply chain while the others just preferred to stay as local satraps.

Being generally a Mango fan (like most Indians I suppose) in the initial few years I avoided the Alphonso due to the heavy prejudice I had against it. But with the Imam Pasands, the Malgovas and the like ruling many kilometers away, had no choice but to become a dutiful citizen of the Alphonso. That’s when I realized that like you do your cash flow planning for so many life events, one has to do the same for “Aam season” also plus prepare yourself for the unique Happoos experiences 😜😜

Like when I lined up before the crowded fruit vendor and insisted on buying varieties other than Happoos – I could hear few ladies nonchalantly asking the vendor – “Aajkal ye saada aam bhi koi leta hai kya???” (“Does anyone buy these ordinary type mangoes these days???”)
Like the first time when I asked for the price of Happoos and the vendor dutifully replied as Rs. 400. He almost came to blows with me when I piously told him I was asking price for 1 kilo and not 5 kilos. That’s when he did the brahmopadesam of the 1^st lesson in Happoos buying. That while other mangoes are sold by weight Happoos is sold in numbers usually a dozen or in Pettis (boxes of 2 dozens).
Like when I insisted that I want to buy only few and not in dozens – I could hear him telling his chela – “Aajkal mandi chal raha hai na, shayad naukri chala gaya hoga”. (These days recession is going on no? May be he has lost his job!!!) Its o.k, give him in loose. And then the parting shot, “Saab, jab naukri mil jayegi – petti hum se hi kareedna’!! (“Sir, when you get the job, please come to me only and buy in dozens!!”)
Like when I see exclusive Happoos outlets springing up suddenly in hitherto empty gaalas (shops) in the season all over Mumbai with prominent boards saying “Credit Cards accepted and ATMs next door”. I think to myself – “Smart move”!!!
Like when I found that a group of friends did a road trip all the way to Ratnagiri – the Happoos town just to search for the organic variety and buy a truck load of the same for consumption for a few days.
Like few years ago in a summer season, while waiting for the luggage to arrive at the baggage belt at Changi (my baggage invariably arrives last 😦 ) was watching the bright yellow/Orange coloured petti after petti of Alphonso mangoes doing the rounds and the owners tearing their hair to identify their own ones!!
Like when I see brands fuelling this passion for Alphonso with hotties like Katrina year after year. I must say that the Slice’s AamSutra campaign is not an Aam Ad, me thinks its Jakaas!

“This season, Alphonsos beyond Aam Aadmi’s reach” is a headline which newspapers get to copy and paste year after year. But still the rush to savour this King of Mangoes continues!! If only the Thathachariar family is listening and doing something to break this monopoly! Or we may have no option but to appeal to our PM to bring in a new “Aam subsidy” through direct cash transfer ofcourse to tackle the increasing price of Alphonsos year after year 😜😜. Not a bad idea for the PM who can beat his rivals AAP and Congress in their own game no???

Postscript: My apologies if you thought that this post is my usual rant/rave about Aam Aadmi Party and got misled. Aam Aadmi Party may be the flavor of the season, but nothing to beat the tastes of the Aam Petti in the summer. 😋😋

Deciphering the cAAPital Verdict!!!

“Modi loses capital” screamed the headline in The Economic Times the day after the historic victory of Aam Admi Party (AAP) in the Delhi state elections. Not only the ET, but across the board the post-mortem narrative in the media by and large has NOT been about AAP winning but Modi getting thrashed. It almost seemed like for a man who cannot do anything wrong since Sep 2013, suddenly it is rigor mortis. Since the ascent of Narendra Modi as PM, for the main stream media, even a local body election has been a referendum on Modi’s Central Govt. Even after wading through the muddy waters in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and even J&K fairly successfully, the “Blow to Modi” war cry finally returned when the AAP Tsunami hit BJP in Delhi. There is no empirical evidence to show that Delhi voted for AAP as they didn’t like Modi’s performance so far at the centre. But then media’s narrative in India is seldom based on logic or ground realities. The only empirical evidence we have ( a post poll survey conducted by CSDS for India Today group) actually points to the fact that though Delhi voted overwhelmingly for AAP, more than 60% still gave a thumbs up to Modi as PM and his Govt.. For the media it is almost unfathomable that Delhi could vote smartly by opting for “Modi + Kejriwal Combo”!!! In fact this sub text emerged during opinion polls in Delhi during Lok Sabha Elections as well, but that got drowned in the overall din. While all criticism of Modi and his Govt. of 9 months are not all misplaced, some of it are clearly over the top. Let us look at some of the uncharitable ones:

“This verdict is against “Hubris” of Modi and the Modi Govt.

”In leadership, it’s only a thin line which separates arrogance and being decisive. In the last 10 years, we took our earlier PM, Dr.Singh to the cleaners for being an epitome of indecisiveness. If one reads Sanjay Baru’s ‘Accidental Prime Minister’ – a tell all tale of India under UPA-1, it’s clear why and how “policy paralysis” as a result of Dr. Singh’s tentativeness pulled the economy down to the rubble. In the last few months we have seen this Govt. taking a lot of firm decisions (like transfer of secretaries, calling off talks with Pakistan,…) and they if viewed through a cynical prism may seem arrogant. It’s still not clear on how many occasions Modi or the Govt. have taken decisions which were supercilious. If this conclusion is because of things like the ordinance route the Govt. took to pass some legislations, then there is another way of looking at it. This has also sent a strong message all concerned of the Govt.’s intent and urgency to get things moving on the mining sector and land acquisition,… which have been issues impending economic activity in the country. While on this, I would agree with critics that the Govt. could have been more benevolent and offered the Leader of Opposition post to Congress instead of being churlish and probably could have given the Hubris tag a miss!!!

“Modi has been focusing too much on foreign affairs”

It is a well-known fact that since the slapping of the retrograde retrospective tax, India had fallen off the foreign investors’ radar. Far from being a potential “Break out” nation, we suddenly became a “fallen BRIC”! So for any new Govt. seeking to put India back on a high growth path, it was imperative to turn around the sentiments and send a signal that “India Means Business”. And that can happen only if the top leadership is seen making the commitment. Critics also say that he should focus on getting the confidence of the Indian investors first rather than those outside. Once again, it will be worthwhile remembering that the flow of the Rupee follows the flow of the Dollars. If foreign investors starts investing in India, the Indian ones start following the script. For instance,when the Carrefours, Walmarts, Metros, Woolworths started pouring dollars in organized retail in 2007/08, all the Big Indian groups like Birlas, Ambanis, Tatas,.. followed suit. So it made absolute sense for this Govt. to reach out to the bigger economies like Japan, China and the US with a sense of urgency to showcase the climate change. And to a large extent it has succeeded. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in Jan, the buzz around India was back after a hiatus.

“This Govt. is all about “Show-baazi”

If one is talking of the hype around programmes like Make In India, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Jan Dhan Yojana,.. then the critique is utterly misplaced. Any programme has to be conceived well, communicated well and implemented well. Make no mistake. It’s just one word which separates “Hype” and “Hope”. From a positive hype, emerges a hope for results. And believe you me, the strong messaging around these programmes is what started giving hope of a Govt. which functions. It may well happen that some of the programmes may fail or may not yield all the desired results. But then you cannot blame the Govt. for not trying. At the end of the day, the Govt. has to function and more importantly it has to be seen as functioning.

It’s not my intention to turn this post to an unending paean on Modi and his Govt.. There indeed have been few false steps which could have been clearly avoided.

“Failure in controlling food inflation”

Though the head line inflation as per pink papers has come down, for the aam admi, price of vegetables and food items has never come down. And so far I have not seen any serious attempt by the Govt. to do anything about this. Supply side bottlenecks continue. In fact, the PM must have taken this as a mission and gone after this from day 1. In the coming days till the economy takes off, this will be a nagging issue in the minds of the public. To give an analogy, in Tamil Nadu, inspite of the fact that the Govt. is being run through remote control, there is visibly less disgruntlement (atleast for now). One big reason being the opening of ‘Amma Canteens’ which disperse food at economic prices. I don’t think there is any other state in India today, where one can have a decent full day meal for under Rs.20. In TN, you can, if you choose to eat in Amma Canteens. So much so, the Saravana Bhavans and their ilk had to cut their prices in order to compete and maintain their market share. Some food for thought this.

“Ghar Wapsi of Kaala Dhan”

In the run up to the Lok Sabha elections, I tweeted – “We will ensure India wins the World cup in 2015 – The only promise Modi has not made so far”!!! Among the slew of promises Modi made in rally after rally, bringing back Black money stashed abroad was one significant and at the same time silly I reckoned. This business of Black money stashed abroad in banks illegally,.. is mired in a complex vortex of Global Drug mafia, Arms trade, High level political Corruption, Tax evasion,…,… in which many countries and their Govts. are willingly complicit. So the SIT and Enquiry commissions will keep spending months together (as they have been doing in the past) without getting anywhere. On the contrary, the Govt. could have focused on the Black money racket within the country. I would be surprised if the people in the Govt. don’t know that the Real Estate business in India is a haven for black money! Why not a regulator for that sector in the lines of IRDA or TRAI or SEBI first instead of going after Ghar wapsi of Kaala Dhan in vain?

PM not reigning in the fringe elements of the Parivar

It was completely expected that when BJP came to power with a majority, it will see the emergence of the fringe elements sooner than later. What is surprising is that the PM who tactfully handled and silenced these in Gujarat didn’t anticipate and have a pro-active plan this time. Like for example, identify the louder elements and put them on some activity trap like “Spreading the values of Vivekananda”,.. in countries abroad using some NGO front organization. They will also feel important to roam around in exotic locales abroad and at the same time you are silencing them in the country. This will ensure that there are minimum distractions. Otherwise a distraction a day will keep the Govt. at bay! We saw this during the last parliament session.

Outside of the few blips I have outlined, there has been a lot going for the PM and his team. Like getting the right people in Key ministries unlike Dr. Singh who was constrained on this, being different and creative in his approach like getting the state CMs to attend the meeting of Mission heads recently pushing Mission heads to focus on getting Dandha for the country, setting up NITI AAYOG,…,…. So it is my opinion that it is utterly malicious for the commentariat to see the “cAAPital Verdict” as a manifestation of the dissatisfied voice of the Nation! This argument can’t get more specious!

When quizzed about this Govt. in Dec I think, Arun Shourie quoting Akbar Allahabadi said, ‘Plateon Ke aane ki Awaaz toh aa rahi hai, par khaana nahin aa raha!!!’ (The sound of the plates can be heard, but the food doesn’t seem to be coming!!!). One hopes that in the Budget and the days after the Govt. puts the Delhi shock behind and stays the course on its Pro-Growth promises made so that people get to smell and eat the food as well. That will keep the mouths of the critics busy in chewing the food rather than spitting venom on the Govt.!

Postscript: Same time last year, when Arvind Kejriwal resigned as CM, I wrote this piece – “The loud Wake AAP call”. Read here. Looks like both the aam admi and the AAP heard the wakeup call loudly that time and today are out of bed and on their way to office while the BJP, got up and hit the snooze button. Well, the Congress has not yet heard the wake up thud and has adjourned itself Sine Die!!!

The loud Wake “AAP” Call!!!

On the 14^th Feb, when mush was filling the air in Delhi and elsewhere, Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Admi Party (AAP) decided to end their romance with power after 7 weeks. When I tweeted thus, someone corrected me – “Romance??? Far from it. It was day-today bickering with power”. Well it was. From the time of Team Anna and then Team Kejriwal, I have been of the opinion that it serves best for Team Kejriwal’s values to stay out of the political system and fight. Read my earlier posts here and here. Age provided wiser counsel to Anna I guess and he refused to be even a peripheral part of AAP. His original agitation for a Lokpal bill reached its logical conclusion finally with the passing of the same. He is now gearing up for the next fight with his new charter all fighting from outside the system. (Though his alignment with and endorsement of Mamta Banerjee is a dampener)

Did I want AAP to fail like this??? Certainly not. I maintain that the time has come for an alternative way of politics in the country and AAP briefly provided that and I hope they will continue to. Some of their moves do deserve more lenient and generous commentary.

In India political parties think of manifestos only before elections. Once elected, the manifesto is archived meticulously only to be retrieved and “Operation copy/cut/paste/find/replace” done before the next elections!!! Even in the short 49 day raj, AAP demonstrated their seriousness towards fulfilling the promises made in the manifesto.
Once in power as seen in recent times mostly as a coalition, the mainstream parties have thrown the alibi of “Coalition compulsion” for not implementing their core party promises. Usually the larger party agrees to the conditions of the smaller party to form the government. Here the smaller party (Congress in this case) agreed to toe the line for supporting the larger party (AAP) to form the Government without seemingly extracting its pound of flesh!!!
Time frame is something political parties never bother about except in situations which suit their convenience. One was pleasantly surprised to see AAP trying hard to do things in a hurry.

To be fair, these are things unheard of / unseen in Indian politics.

Having said that, AAP certainly could have done things differently rather than changing Delhi into a theatre of “AAPsurd” in the past couple of months. When I was in Delhi 2 weeks back, a resident told me this – “Delhi these days has become like Kolkatta. You never know what dharna is going to happen, where and how it will affect daily life”!!! Well, that’s not a very charitable comment. Having come to power due to the strong power of democracy, there is no way the ruling party can change democracy to “dharnacracy”. In the spirit of fulfilling the promise made in the manifesto (which in the 1^st place smacks of ludicrousness) you cannot waive off penalties for those who failed to pay power bills in support of your agitation. Tomorrow a Sena can start an agitation calling for burning a few trains and when they come to power can announce lifelong free passes for all those who supported them on their agitation. How ridiculous is that???

This AAP’s fling with power has sounded a loud “Wake AAP call” to all concerned:

To AAP: As many pundits keep saying, once part of the political system which has brought AAP to power it is important to focus on governance and shed the street fighter stripes. People are yearning for change and when in power, change is best brought by using authority to bring in governance. An apple a day can keep the doctor away. But an AAP overkill a day will keep all well-wishers away!!!

To Main stream political parties: As demonstrated by AAP within the short period of existence, there is a compelling need to change the discourse of the past. Patience may be a virtue but today’s generation has very much less of it. Choose candidates based on merit, performance matters and to people nothing matters except issues related to their day-today well-being. Read as jobs, income, family’s future,… Hence single-minded focus on Governance and carrying out things in a timely fashion is what people expect. Chai pe charcha and Bharat Nirman campaigns are all fine. But once in power, charchas in parliament have to result in Desh Nirman, and not in shameful “Pepperspray” abhiyaan!!

To the Aam admi: In the next few months, the aam admi will get a chance to express him/herself. The next 2 years will decide if India will become a developed nation or continue to be a perennial emerging country. It is important to differentiate the expectations from a local body election to a state election to a Lok Sabha election and vote accordingly. The last 25 years we have suffered due to fractured mandates. In today’s world an absolute majority will make a difference at the centre.. Hence it will serve us better if we use our precious vote to bring a stable party/pre-poll coalition at the centre rather than a fancy front with regional parties which jump on to the bandwagon as post-poll partners bargaining for “ATM” ministries and pulling in NEWS directions! And vote for individuals who show capability and tendency to make a difference.

Postscript: Sharing a joke seen on Whatsapp:

“Kejriwal resigns as CM of Delhi. Kaamwali bai sach hi kehti hai. Jhaadu kitna bi acha kyu na ho, 2-3 mahine se jyada nahi chalta” 🙂 🙂 🙂

Cartoon Courtesy : The Hindu

Downloading in Delhi – the app of the season!!!

On the same Sunday two weeks ago, Indians in general and Dilliwallahs in particular were waiting in bated breath as the counting for the state elections was in progress to know who will be the next Chief Minister(CM). 2 weeks hence one is still waiting to know who will be Delhi’s next CM as another counting is underway and announcement of result is awaited tomorrow. Few years back (2008 I think), IDEA cellular ran a TVC for their mobile service in which politicians were seeking opinion from people on an issue related to governance thro SMS polls. That time the idea of seeking referendum using technology streams like mobile/internet seemed like an extreme fantasy of a creative brain. However the Aam Admi Party (AAP) the new kid on the block in India’s politics has been in the forefront of re-writing the rules of the game and what seemed like fictional has indeed become a reality. As I type these words, in a reality show type SMS poll, AAP is conducting a referendum exercise in Delhi on whether to form the Government or not.

Everyone is in unison when they say that this Delhi Election has seen a new coming of age of Indian democracy. And this has been mainly engineered by the presence of AAP in the election ring. Can you imagine of a situation few years ago where the single largest party with few seats short of majority soberly declaring that they will sit in the opposition and serve the people without making an attempt to form the Government?? To borrow from Vinod Mehta’s piece one feels that suddenly India these days has become “the Republic of Utopia – St. Thomas More’s imaginary state in which laws, government and social conditions are perfect”!!! From the days of “Aaya ram, Gaya ram” to “Hamare pass numbers hai” and the usual scenes of MLAs being holed up in some remote resort to prevent horse trading to today’s “Pehle aap, Pehle aap”, I think this is a fantastic and refreshing change. In that sense, AAP has already won the battle if not the war.

Once the single largest party-the BJP showed no inclination to form the Government, there has been a huge clamour on AAP to stake claim for forming the Government with support from the Congress or BJP. The conundrum which ensued on AAP was understandable. “How can we take support even if its outside from any of the 2 parties whom we opposed tooth and nail during the campaign???” “How can we form the Government somehow by striking a deal with the Congress or BJP when we were exactly against their wheeling dealing type of politics???” So when this conflict played out, the AAP leadership took the stance of not staking claim and as per me rightly so. But they were reviled by the opposition first and then the press.

“AAP is shirking its responsibility by not forming the Government” was one refrain. How can they, when they didn’t have the numbers or the mandate to govern on their own terms?

“Politics is the art of the possible. So AAP should take the support from Congress and form the Government with a Common Minimum programme (CMP)“ was another theory. As per me this whole Common Minimum Programme is nothing but a recipe for “Common Minimum Governance”!!! We saw this during the UPA-1 regime when Congress formed the Government with “Outside” support from the Left under the premise of a CMP. What followed was nothing but a Left rule by proxy. While the CMP ensured that the agenda of the Left was followed, the growth agenda of the country got left behind 😦 😦

“How will the people know what AAP is capable of if you don’t govern? Since Congress is providing “unconditional” support, AAP should stop posturing and take their support and change Delhi as you promised” – this is another missive. India’s political history shows “Unconditional support” means “And Conditions apply for support”! So I’m not sure if Congress will play ball on all initiatives and changes AAP wishes to usher in Delhi. Maybe they will. May be times are changing.

So all this egging of AAP to somehow form the Government is as per me a well thought of strategy by the parties to make AAP govern and then flounder. After all how has AAP managed to capture the imagination of people in a short time? Not just by promising to root out corruption but also to govern with Aam Admi’s interest in mind on every issue. If AAP comes to power and makes mistakes, it will be good news for BJP and also Congress when they face the same public in 2014 for the Lok Sabha polls. But if AAP does really govern well, still 6 months is a short period to make any impact which will affect 2014 elections. So the National parties with their sights firmly on 2014 Lok Sabha polls want AAP to rule and probably fail.

On the other hand, if AAP had stuck to the original stand of not forming the Government under any circumstances, may be Delhi would be subjected to President’s rule and re-poll held along with Lok Sabha polls. That would have been a win-win situation for AAP.

If they win with a majority then, they get full undisputed mandate of Delhi and they can rule without anybody looking over their shoulders and give the Governance they promised.
If they lose and BJP gets a majority, they can sit in opposition. It allows for some time for the young first time legislators to learn and prepare for the long haul in the future. At the same time they can continue to put pressure on the Government like they are doing today and bring in paradigm changes. Somehow my take is AAP is best suited to be in opposition and bring in changes rather than govern. While everything else of AAP is inspiring hope, somehow their economic agenda is not. It smacks of more socialism, Anti-business and hence worrisome. Hopefully they will change their thinking when they understand what matters most to Aam Admi. It is not doles but jobs and hence empowerment.
The only issue is what will happen if it’s a hung assembly again with no clear majority. I feel that there is lesser chance for the same as constituencies where either AAP or BJP won with smaller margins will vote more decisively the next time over.

Somehow in the last few days, coming under pressure from media and commentators, AAP leaders decided to dilute their stand from “Not forming the Government” to “Will form if people say so”. Hence that “What an idea, Sirji” was put to use.

As I come to the close of this piece it is clear that AAP has been the “app of the season” in India. It looks very possible that this is App is “downloading” itself in Delhi and we may have Arvind Kejriwal as the new Chief Santa this X-mas and Aam Admi Party governing Delhi in the New year. Here’s wishing AAP an error free run and more downloads in the future!!! Jingle Bells, jingle bells,…,…

Indian Elections – Truly Sensational!!!

On a day when one has been busy following the results of what has been touted as “Semifinals” i.e. the elections in few states of India, one cannot but feel happy/proud at the way the whole election process works in India. Elections in India today, whether they are the state elections or the Lok Sabha elections happen in a very smooth manner, well almost. The Election Commission (EC) which is an independent constitutional authority is responsible for conducting elections in India under the frame work of the Representation of Peoples Act, 1951. From the time the elections are called till the results are announced after counting and governments are formed, the entire process rolls out like a well-oiled machinery. There are very few parallels in India to the EC if you talk of “Sarkari” offices discharging their duties so efficiently. However it was not the case for quite some time since Independence.

The way elections in India are held can be categorized into 2 eras – the BS and AS era just like the “Before Christ (BC)” and “Anno Domini (AD)” era. For the uninitiated, BS is “Before Seshan” and AS is “After Seshan”. Tirunellai Narayana Iyer Seshan, popularly known as T.N.Seshan took over as the 10^th Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) in the year 1990 and elections in India since then have never been the same. He was in office till 1996 before he retired. If today one views the office of the CEC and its incumbents with some reverence, it is certainly after 1990. In the time before 1990 which is the BS era, the office of the CEC was another sedate, sober one carrying out the job of conducting elections in the country in a very routine manner. Though the position was an independent one, till Seshan came in the CEC almost functioned as an office reporting to the Government of the day. But the same office transformed itself since 1990 when Seshan took over and has become what we see as one of the most efficient departments of the Government of India. We hardly remember the names of the CECs before Seshan. On a day when Seshan must be watching the election results sipping hot filter Kaapi from I guess Chennai, it will be good to recall few of the landmark changes he brought into the election process:

Today, the moment elections are announced the political parties come under the purview of what is known as “Model Code of conduct”. As per this, among other things, the Government of the day cannot announce any luring sop or launch any program which can influence the voter once the elections are announced. In addition to this significant point, there are other mandatory requirements as well. Mind you this Model Code of Conduct is not any law under the statute but an ingenious intervention by Seshan to make the elections free and fair. Since then this Code of Conduct has been refined to include many other clauses as well and is today an established drill followed with discipline.
In the BS era, on a polling day with much less media coverage and almost no or low security – it was free for all leading to rigging, booth capturing, fraudulent voting and what have you. It was common for voters to find their votes already cast when they go late in the day. Today it is not as bad due to
- the elections being conducted in a phased manner (and not in a single day as it used to be in the 80’s) so as to ensure sufficient police and security forces being made available across the state. When Seshan announced his plan of conducting elections in phases for the 1^st time, it took everybody by surprise and there were many who questioned his wisdom evoking fears of keeping the ballot boxes safe,.. But he stuck to his guns and now, phased conduct of Lok Sabha elections and elections in larger states has become the norm and no EC even thinks of conducting elections in a single day. That he was in the Home Ministry earlier helped him to assess the logistical challenge for the troops movement. The model he came up for scheduling phased out elections is part of the EC’s Standard Operating Procedure.
- The introduction of the Voter’s identity card: One fine morning in Aug 1993, a maverick he is – Seshan announced that no more elections will be conducted in India without voter identity cards which have the photo and other details of the voters. It was an exercise of gargantuan proportion to issue a photo I-Card to all eligible voters and this call certainly put the Government in a quandary as to how the same could be implemented. Seshan thumped his foot down on this (as he always did) and got the Government to allocate funds in the budget and got this project underway. He relented only a bit in terms of time frame but ensured that the Government commits itself to this cause. I must add that for a complex country like India such a project needs a better project implementation rigour. Due to the very aggressive posturing of Seshan, the project got implemented though in a hap hazard manner (lot of mistakes in the cards, Duplication, Inadequate coverage of the entire population,…). Nevertheless the need for a Voter ID got in vogue in the country and still is.
- Enforcement of spending limits by candidates: The existing limits for spending for candidates always appear to be some kind of a joke when you actually see the kind of money which gets spent oops “invested” in elections. State funding of elections has been an idea which has been going the rounds but which needed legislation. In the meantime, Seshan introduced the concept of having officers going around the length and breadth of the electorate and filming/recording activities the candidates carry out in the garb of electioneering. With this initiative there have been very many instances where candidates have been disqualified post their victory under charges of unfair practices. Though money power is still omnipresent it is not as obvious as before.
- Timing and scheduling of elections: It is an established fact that Mrs. Gandhi used IB (Intelligence Bureau) to gather ground intelligence about the way the political wind was blowing and dismissed elected governments under some pretext. She then got the then EC to time the elections suitably. Not so in the AS era. Now the EC decides on the timing and scheduling based on various factors some as per the constitutional provisions and others as per need to conduct free and fair elections (weather, school holidays, religious festivals, …,…)
- Cancelling/Ordering Re–poll in case of mal practices: Seshan was quick to make assessment of any reported mal practices which happened on the polling day or before and order re-poll in those constituencies. This became an effective barrier for such activities.

Now when he brought in all these changes did the Government of the day keep quiet? Well not at all. It did its bit to clip his wings by making the EC a multi member body with one Chief Election Commissioner and 2 Election Commissioners. (Earlier it had just one CEC). Fortunately this change didn’t affect the functioning of the EC and may be made it more robust. Since Seshan, India has been fortunate to have some illustrious officers who served as CEC and continued the autonomous working style and authority of the EC. But to Seshan’s credit it must be said that we have not seen many substantive changes or game changing ideas since his departure. The EC has been by and large following the broad template Seshan had evolved for conducting free and fair polls in the country.

Seshan is reported to have famously said that men from Palghat were either great cooks or classical musicians or good bureaucrats. So as per him, that he was a good officer was because of where he hailed from. That was a very simplistic self-assessment of a man who was not known so much for his humility but certainly reputed for cleaning up Indian elections once for all.

Postscript: If there is one area where the Chinese feel envious of India it is the fact that we choose our leaders through elections that too of the free and fair type which people like Seshan ensured over a period of time. Can China get an “Aam Admi Party“??? Truly senSeshanal isn’t it??? On that note, 3 cheers 🙂 🙂 🙂

anandkumarrs

Random expressions of a Wannabe

Aam Admi Party