Marketing

The Karnataka story and the Marketing takeaways!

The Karnataka state elections are over. The results are out. And so are the myriad analyses, commentaries and takeaways from experts and social media pundits. One of the big reasons that is always attributed when an incumbent government loses is – “Anti-Incumbency” as if it is a very legitimate excuse in democracy.  But we have seen that incumbent governments do not always lose elections. Only when governments do not provide basic governance and when people see a better alternative to the incumbent government, they are thrown out. So, labelling poor governance as Anti-incumbency is a lazy analysis to start with.

In Karnataka, the incumbent BJP government lost due to an absolute lacklustre performance in the last term. Period. Therefore, you see that across different strata of society or geographies with very few exceptions, BJP lost. Arguing that BJP held on to the vote share and therefore it was not a rout serves only as a spin for the media. The state was up for grabs for the Congress. I have a theory for why BJP let things go out of hand. But will keep it for another blog. Since a lot has already been said about how Congress pulled it off, I am going to restrict myself to one important aspect of the Congress campaign which in my opinion is straight out of marketing textbooks.

During elections, it is very common to see all parties making a lot of promises. These promises are made on an ad-hoc basis during election rallies or put in the manifestos which are released by parties before the elections. Though manifestos are released with a lot of fanfare by parties in press conferences, I doubt if they are read by common people. Even if some diligent people read them in newspapers or news portals, they are hardly remembered. Even the press which goes on and on with sundry divisive campaign speeches, doesn’t focus too much on the manifestos. The media also doesn’t do a follow-up on the “Promises Vs Delivery” from the last elections for the party in power. Therefore, manifestos are prepared and released as part of some SOP every time but are hardly given any importance by the parties and the people.

In Marketing communication theory, we are taught a few things. For starters, when communicating a product’s promise, the message should be simple. A product has many features, but it is the benefits that need to be communicated not the features. Again, it is important to pick the key benefits and talk about them rather than try to communicate all the benefits. And then comes the medium through which the product’s promises are communicated. Finally, when the communication need to happen.

Here’s where Congress made an interesting deviation in the way of communicating poll promises and came up a winner in these elections. Here was an incumbent government that was suffering from poor performance. But in order to turn it around to its advantage, Congress had to demonstrate a credible governance model that can be delivered through capable leadership. Luckily for them, they had a credible face in Siddaramaiah. What they needed was a smart way to communicate their plan or promises.

Instead of doing it through the usual Goshna Patra or manifesto, Congress this time communicated its promises through a Guarantee card. And in my opinion from a marketing standpoint, this was a masterstroke for the following reasons:

  • People understand the concept of a guarantee card or a warranty card as they see it coming along with the products they buy. In such cards, companies give a guarantee for the performance of their products. The guarantee or the warranty card acts as a contract between the manufacturer and the consumer. So, when Congress put its promises in a guarantee card, people understood the seriousness of the intent.
  • Manifestos run into pages usually and therefore nobody remembers or registers much of the content. The Congress guarantee card was just one page and therefore easy to register and recall. Keeping it simple is very important in any communication.

  • The other important point is, Congress put forth just five promises in the guarantee card. Instead of including myriad promises trying to please all in the state, Congress focused on five key promises.
  • Coming to the promises in the guarantee card themselves, these were 200 Units of free power to each household, Rs 2000 monthly payment to women in each household, Free bus travel to all women in the state, Cash dole to unemployed youth in the state and Free 10 kg rice every month to all BPL families. All are quantifiable, relatable and later can be verified for delivery.
  • While it is good to come up with the concept of a guarantee card, it can be a futile exercise if the same is not taken to people properly. Here again, apart from releasing the same to the media in a press conference and putting it out on social media platforms, Congress got the guarantee cards printed and distributed them to people all across the state. I read somewhere that they managed to distribute 2 crore cards in the state. When Congress leaders were distributing the same, it created a buzz and excitement among people who were jostling to collect them as if it was some kind of empowerment.

  • As a reinforcement on the polling day, Congress put out full-page ads of the 5 guarantees.

  • And finally, the top leadership of the Congress also stressed the point that the guarantees will be implemented in the first cabinet meeting of the government if Congress comes to power.

It is not my case that Congress won handsomely because of just this reason. Victories usually are multifactorial. But I have no doubt in my mind that the mode of communication of the poll promises in the form of a guarantee card certainly helped Congress in establishing credibility as an effective alternative to the BJP this time.

Having said that, communication is just one thing that of course helped Congress to come to power. From here on, delivering on the promises is key. All the positive aspects of the guarantee card idea could come to haunt Congress if it falters in the delivery. But at least from a marketing standpoint, it is an idea that Congress could do well to replicate in the coming state elections later this year and in the Lok Sabha Elections in 2024. It will be interesting to see what BJP, a normally marketing savvy party would come up with to counter Congress’s guarantee card idea.

Post Script: If the “Guarantee card” was a killer idea for the Congress, the “Double Engine Sarkara” plank of the BJP was the opposite.  For BJP, one engine was not firing at all or it was firing in the reverse direction. Secondly, a double-engine sarkar could not prevent the situation from going out of hand during the border strife where both the states involved were BJP-ruled states. Therefore, here’s the next marketing takeaway.  Don’t go overboard on a feature in your product that is not working.

For Apple, I for India!

In the last week, we were all witness to an overdose of coverage related to the India visit of Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook. In a well-choreographed PR exercise, Cook gave a lot of photo-ops to the media, made all the right noises, tasted some local food, met with key people from industrialists to film stars to politicians and even watched an IPL match – ample proof that he and his handlers had done a thorough job of appealing to all the Indian senses. For Americans, marketing comes very naturally. And in American companies, their CEOs are their best salesperson. So, during his visit, Cook did not waste a single opportunity to soft sell Apple’s products in some form or other. It seemed as if India was the apple of the eye for Cook.

And what was he here for basically? Cook was here among other things to open Apple’s first direct showroom in India. Why is it such a big deal? Apple showrooms are there all over the world. Does a global CEO go all the way from her base country to open showrooms in other countries? Well, it doesn’t happen usually unless otherwise, she wants to turn such an opportunity to convey a larger strategic intent to the stakeholders at large – shareholders, employees, vendors, competitors, local governments and of course consumers. I am sure that’s what Cook intended too during his India visit just like Jesper Brodin, CEO of IKEA when IKEA opened its first showroom in India in 2018.
Even Cook would have been pleasantly surprised to see and hear of the massive lines in front of Apple’s showrooms in Mumbai and Delhi even before they were officially opened. What explains this kind of craze for a product like the iPhone that caters to just 11% of the total market in India? It is the same in India as in other countries. The answer actually lies in the answer to another question – Who is the brand ambassador for iPhone or for that matter any Apple product?
Vivo phone has Virat Kohli as its brand ambassador. Alia Bhat is the brand ambassador for the Galaxy range of Samsung phones. Similarly, other brands have other celebrities. But not the iPhone. For Apple’s products, its numerous users are its brand ambassadors. I remember vividly back in 2007, even before the first model of the iPhone was officially launched in India, people returning from the US were going gaga about it. Even when Apple was not even looking at India as a serious market and was more concerned about China, it had its fan following in India. It is this fan following borne by the aspirational nature of Apple’s products that explains the huge lines in front of Apple’s showrooms. In today’s viral age, for a marketer, this is the ultimate endgame when her consumers become the best brand ambassadors. Just like the line between the brand and the product category blurring completely.
Those who have visited Apple’s showrooms would vouch for the fact that they are not just platforms for showcasing Apple’s products. Apple’s showrooms typically showcase the Apple experience. When I visited Apple’s showrooms in Tokyo and Singapore I was floored by its simplicity and single-minded focus in presenting the Apple experience. There was no one in the showroom to “push” a product to you!
After many years, it is now that India has become very important to Apple. As we speak, India has almost a 360o engagement with Apple. For quite a while now, like other tech companies, India has been a critical source of engineering manpower for Apple. Companies in India have been providing backend support for Apple’s marketing programs as well. As a country, India is now among the high-growth market for Apple’s products. And now, India has also emerged as a manufacturing base for Apple’s products.
Among all the above engagements, though for India as a country, we would look at the last one as the most important, from Apple’s perspective it is India as a consumer market that matters. In the luxury or the premium end of the smartphone market, Apple is the leader with a staggering 50% share for the Oct/Nov/Dec quarter of 2022 and a 45% share for the full year of 2022. Yet, internally to his team, Cook, like most CEOs might say that they are just scratching the surface and here’s why.
If you look at the whole smartphone market, Apple’s iPhone has just a market share of close to 8% and is behind Samsung which leads the pack with a 20% share, followed by Chinese brands like Vivo, Xiaomi, Oppo and Realme. For the whole year of 2022, Apple’s share is less than 5%. The premium market where Apple’s iPhone is playing is just 11% of the total market.
Now compare this to the situation in its home turf, America. There, Apple dominates the market with a 57% market share. However, the market is expected to grow just at a CAGR of 0.29% for the 2023-28 period. In a market where it is already a dominant player with more than half the market share, the possibility is only for dropping share and not gaining. Growth for Apple can come only from markets where the markets are expected to expand and where Apple has a low market share. India fits this definition perfectly at this point in time.
For India, the smartphone market in absolute numbers is expected to reach a staggering 253.28mn units by 2027 with a CAGR of close to 8% for the period 2021-27 as per available research reports. Now this is a mouth-watering opportunity for the CEO of any smartphone manufacturer including Tim Cook. And when the market share is as low as 5%, it is an opportunity as much a challenge.
India is a mass market where the volumes are there in the low, utility end. The moot question is, – Will the recent strategic initiatives of Apple like producing in India and opening up a direct retail presence help increase sales? Unlikely. But both help to contribute to Apple’s strategic plans in different ways. Increasing production volumes in India helps to reduce over-dependence on China. It helps to reduce production costs by taking advantage of the inverted duty structure of manufactured phones Vs imported ones. The showrooms of course act as a reminder medium for the brand Apple.
My sense is that while Apple is not the one to cut prices to increase its share, soon it may come up with an emerging market iPhone that is competitively priced to increase its share. This may not happen today or tomorrow but can happen when Apple is faced with a situation of stagnating volumes from developed markets in the coming years. The journey of Apple bringing an emerging market model and Indian consumer’s per capita income increase may meet midway within the next ten years.
On the one hand, increasing the production share out of India and increasing the domestic market share in India on the other hand, means India would be in the thick of the action as far as Apple HQ is concerned for the next few years. As kids in kindergarten schools, our English learning started with “A for Apple”. For Tim Cook and his team at Apple, it is “I for India”!

For an Oscar Win, read Philip Kotler!

On the morning of a new weekend on Monday, the 13th, much of India went on a collective ecstasy when the news started coming in of Indians winning two Oscars at this year’s Academy Awards. RRR, a film from Tollywood that became a Pan-Indian hit got an Oscar for the “Best Original Song”. The second Oscar went to “The Elephant Whisperers” for the “Best Documentary”. For Indians, an Oscar win is coming after 14 years when A.R. Rahman and Resul Pookutty won the Oscars for the Best Original Song/Score and Best Sound respectively for The Slumdog Millionaire film.
As one would expect for such a global recognition, accolades have come in thick and fast from all quarters and deservedly so. It is common knowledge that an Oscar win adds to the brand value of the creative people behind it. Just limiting the scope of this article with RRR, S.S. Rajamouli, the director of the film, the producers, and the lead actors have all revelled under the glory in addition to the Music director M.M. Keeravani (MMK) alias Maragathamani (in Tamil) alias M.M. Kreem (In Hindi).
As can be expected, Naatu Naatu song winning the Oscars has attracted its share of criticism as well. Comments like “There are so many other classic songs from India composed by others and when they did not win the Oscars, how come Naatu Naatu?”, “Even among MMK’s work there are other songs that are much better than Naatu, Naatu”, “RRR got the award, not for Art reason but “Commerce” reason, because Hollywood wants to tap the vast Indian market” and so on are going the rounds in Social Media. Though all these comments could be partially or fully valid, that an Indian work has received the Academy Award is indeed commendable and hence should be complemented without any ifs and buts. So, congratulations to MMK, Lyricist Chandrabose and the entire RRR team are in order.
The reality is even if a film or a song/music is outstanding, it doesn’t mean that it will win an Oscar. This should be understood clearly because for any film to make an impact at the Oscars it has to go through a rigorous process that also involves millions of dollars and that’s quite a lot for an Indian film that is made in a few million dollars. For RRR, unconfirmed reports suggest that the team spent more than 80 million dollars for the Oscar campaign. That brings me to the subject of this blog that for an Indian film to win an Oscar, it has to get its marketing also right. Now one should not get me wrong as if I am alluding that MMK or ARR before got the Oscars only because of marketing and not because of their capabilities. My point is though the winners may be and actually are extremely talented and worth the Oscars, Marketing had a huge role to play in their wins whether it was RRR or Slumdog Millionaire.
Now, the Academy Awards are awards meant for Hollywood films. There is one category for foreign films in which Non-Hollywood films can compete where many countries including India send in their entries. To first get nominated from the home country as its official entry and finally go on to win an Oscar, is a creative + marketing exercise.
Philip Kotler, the Marketing Guru talks about the Ps of the Marketing Mix that a seller has to use to influence the buyer’s response. What started as 4Ps has now become 7Ps. My point is for an Indian film to win an Oscar it is not enough for just the first P – namely the Product to be great. The makers have to work on the balance 6Ps also if they want to stand a chance to win the Oscars. Let me explain the 7Ps and their relevance to the Oscar hunt.
Product: This is quite obvious. Here the product in this context refers to the film or the aspect of the film that is contesting for the Academy Awards (Film, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Music score etc). This is fundamental and has to be outstanding in the first place.
Place: This refers to channels through which the product is sold. In this context, Place refers to where the film is made and where all it is shown. If it’s a Hollywood production it obviously has a better chance to win. Though RRR was not a Hollywood production and it was not nominated as an official entry from India, it had an extremely successful run in many parts of the world including Hollywood. It was eventually the film’s American distributor – Variance Films who submitted the entry to the Oscars under the “For Your Consideration” category – kind of a wild shot at the Oscars. That the film was exhibited widely and was acclaimed all over as a fancy Indian film helped to push through under this category.
Price: In the normal context this refers to the cost or the price the customer pays for the product which usually is an important element for most of the categories. But in this context, I would refer to it as the Price the producer is willing to pay for the marketing and promotion of the film. Once a film is in the fray and that too a foreign film, it only stands a chance if most of the jury members are made to watch the film which requires heavy lobbying that costs money.
Promotion: Usually refers to the Advertising and Promotion activities that need to go behind the product. In this context also it refers to the same and it doesn’t need much explanation. Right from promoting the film within India before release and later promoting it in the markets where the film is exhibited, Promotions are becoming an important aspect of a film’s success.
People: Usually this refers to the people involved in the product right from concept to the store. In the context of films, this refers to the people behind the making of the film. Obviously, the creative brains involved in the film, the stars/cast that is part of the film and later the people who are involved in taking the film to the theatres play a huge role in the success of a film and its chance for an Oscar. Here I would add a crucial P in this People is the Producer without whose mind share and wallet share, it is almost impossible to take a shot even at the Oscars.
Process: This usually refers to the series of actions and SOPs that are involved in taking a product or a service to the consumer. In the context of films, it refers to the process that is involved in taking the film to the Oscars. And whoever has gone through the process before like Aamir Khan or Kamal Haasan will tell you how important it is to master this process that also costs money (P in Price)
Physical Evidence: In Kotler’s theory, this refers to the tangible and intangible elements that customers experience while using a product or service. Physical evidence includes the design, layout, and appearance of a physical location or environment where a product or service is delivered, such as a store, office, or website. It also includes the packaging, branding, and other visual and sensory aspects of a product or service. In the context of films, I would reckon that this would refer to the packaging of the film itself. Like how poverty in a developing country was packaged in Slum Dog Millionaire, for example. Or how a leader like Gandhi was packaged and shown in the film Gandhi. Or how a story belonging to the pre – Independence era has been packaged with mythology and so on in RRR.
There are many outstanding films that are made every year in India. Many of us feel that those are all far better than Slum Dog Millionaire or other films that win the Academy Awards. In order for these films to get chosen from India as India’s entry first and then to stand a chance for winning an Oscar, it is not enough if they are just great films from an Indian viewer’s perspective. It has to be an outstanding film from the perspective of the jury of the Academy Awards. For that, in addition to the main P (Product), the other six Ps as mentioned above need to be worked upon as well.
Many of Kamal Haasan’s films have been sent as the official entry for the Oscars in the past but have not managed to even secure a nomination. This is because they did not pass the 7 Ps test in my opinion. Now go back and check how RRR has fared in handling the 7 Ps and you will understand why it managed to enter into the race first of all though it was not recommended as the Official entry from India and also win an award in the original score category at the end. In the future, if any other filmmaker has aspirations of an Oscar, make a great film and before that read Philip’s Kotler.

India and the Global Attention Surplus Disorder!

Jan 17th, 2023:  BBC releases the first part of the documentary on Modi titled “India: The Modi Question”. Among other things, the documentary goes on to levy charges on Modi for his role during the Gujarat riots back in 2002 when he was the Chief Minister of the state. It is another matter that the courts and different committees have delved into the same matter for so many years and have exonerated Modi for his involvement in inciting the riots as claimed by the documentary.

Jan 24th, 2023: Hindenburg, an American short seller, publishes a report on the Adani group in which it accuses Adani group of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades.” This was just three days before the opening of Adani’s FPO in the market. The ensuing brouhaha led eventually to the withdrawal of the FPO only after a massive evaporation of its market capitalisation.

Feb 6th, 2023: In the US, the Deputy Secretary of State briefed that “The surveillance balloon effort, which has operated for several years partly out of Hainan province off China’s south coast, has collected information on military assets in countries and areas of emerging strategic interest to China including Japan, India, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines,”

Feb 17th, 2023: At the Munich security summit, an annual conference on global security issues, George Soros, an American business magnate and philanthropist launched a scathing tirade on the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In his speech, he also referred to the Hindenburg report and said that Modi and Adani were close allies and that their fate was intertwined.

If you look at all these stories, a few things are strikingly common – the stories are about India, they are damning in design and emanating from outside India.

Quoting World Bank data, Centre says Indias PPP-based economy reached $8 trillion in 2017

Welcome to India’s “Global Attention Surplus Disorder” TM (GASD) era. At the outset, let me clarify that this has got nothing to do with Attention Deficit Disorder which is a mental condition. Global Attention Surplus Disorder is when a country is subjected to excessive attention globally because of which stories mostly of the critical type about the country keep coming out at regular intervals.

It is important to note that all countries are not automatically subjected to this syndrome. In the evolution of any country, there comes a time when the country becomes in a way eligible for excessive attention.  Once eligible, it becomes a part of this privileged league of nations. I believe that for India, this started last year (2022), though we have often threatened to get into this league but slipped back in the last minute. Why did India become part of this league and is getting subjected to GASD?

When a sportsperson starts doing well in mega events, she starts becoming the cynosure of all eyes. She also comes under scrutiny not just for her sports feats but also for her conduct in her personal life (Think Sania Mirza). Among all the film stars, if you are a top star like one of the Khans, obviously you are at the centre of all attention and scrutiny. You will receive your regular dose of bouquets but when the brickbats come, they will be heavy and bitter. Ask Aamir Khan. If you are the among the richest and most famous you cannot escape the attention of the prying news reporters. Look at the Ambanis. A dominant and globally successful company is always under media scrutiny not just for its success but also for its omissions and commissions. Search Google. A very quick upstart, which was initially the darling of the one and all could face the bile of the same media and regulators worldwide when it becomes over-successful. What happened to Facebook (Meta)? Even when a politician becomes extremely popular with the public and becomes a darling of the masses, he becomes a victim of excessive and continuous scrutiny. Even if it’s a Modi.

This has what has changed for India in the past few months. For a populous country like India, it weathered the Covid storm pretty well. In the past few years, the fundamentals of the economy are getting stronger because of which the country’s resilience to external shocks has improved drastically. Despite global headwinds like Covid, the Ukraine war and now the global economic slowdown, India continues to grow at a faster clip than all major economies. For the future, the world is now predicting that this could be India’s decade. There is a visible transformation of infrastructure in the country. Highways, Railways, Airports, Metros, sea links are all finally moving toward completion in the next five years after being in a permanent Work In Progress phase. The adoption of digital solutions to solve the country’s public issues seem real and this holds a lot of “hard” promise for the future. In the past, our promises remained “soft”.  As we saw in the recent mega order of the aircrafts, big powers are looking to India to help them.

In Marketing it is said that for a market leader apart from doing routine things to increase its share, and expand the market, the bigger challenge is to ring-fence itself from some “Public Relations (PR) storm” or other that it is subjected to now and then. For example, a successful brand and a leader in its category like McDonald’s has to spend extra marketing resources for challenging litigations and Class action suits by say, Vegans. A vigilante group will never waste time and resources on going after say a Biggies Burger or a Burger Singh (yes these are Burger brands and competitors to McDonald’s in India)

My point is, getting subjected to Global Attention Surplus Disorder is a sign of India’s success. It means that India has arrived. In my opinion, China started suffering from this around the mid-2000s when its economy started firing on all cylinders and China became the so-called factory of the world. But that’s when coverage of its record on Human rights, Freedom of expression, Public Data accuracy, Transparency Index, Corruption, etc. also started finding its way into the global media regularly. There is not a single day when there is no negative story on China these days in reputed publications like The Economist, The Washington Post, The New York Times and so on. China has been suffering from GASD for many years; India has just started.

In the coming days, weeks, months and years, you will see India being in the eye of the storm frequently and more often. We have to get used to this excessive attention from the world. As a country, and as a government we should put processes in place to handle PR storms of varied nature from here on that will ensure less Governmental time on such issues. At the same time, we should pick the right battles to fight. Otherwise, we could get into a vicious distractive cycle. India is at the cusp of making history. Focus on the job at hand is more important than getting waylaid by distractions.

As Cricket experts would say, in seaming conditions and turning tracks, a batsman should know which ball or bowler to attack and more importantly which to be “well left”!

Image courtesy: Hans India

Ponniyin Selvan is Coming!

In Tamil cinema, if there is one film that has created genuine unprecedented expectations in recent times, it must be Ponniyin Selvan (PS), the Tamil epic originally written by Kalki Krishnamurthy and being brought to the big screen by none other than Mani Ratnam. I say genuine expectations because there are films where expectations and hype are whipped up by fan clubs, social media warriors and PR machinery. The reasons for the buzz around PS are understandable with the expectations coming from many quarters.

First, there are those who followed PS on a weekly basis when it came as a serial novel in the Kalki magazine in the 50’s. This generation would be all senior and Super senior citizens now like my parents but yet have fond memories of the novel. In the absence of other media like now, this whole generation waited with bated breath every week for four years to read the twists and turns in the Kalki story. Their health permitting, they would like to watch the film to brush up on those memories and see how the novel has been transformed on the big screen.

The second group of people are those who didn’t or couldn’t read PS when it came in Kalki but have heard a lot about PS later from many quarters. Subsequently, they made it a point to read the book once or a few times. This group is the one that is in judgemental mood now and would like to see if Mani Ratnam has been able to do justice to the novel. If I may add, the starting point for this group is “How can anyone, leave alone Mani Ratnam turn Ponniyin Selvan into a film?”

Then there is this group like me which belongs to the same generation as the second but hasn’t read the novel or read partially. For this group, there are no book markers and so the expectations are being shaped by the buzz the film version has generated and would like to see what is this hype over Ponniyin Selvan story itself.

Then finally we have a very large group of cinephiles and in that those who are fans of Mani Ratnam as a filmmaker and probably fans of some of the cast who anyway want to watch this film.

So, this kind of multi-dimensional expectation is a rarity for films in general as mostly the expectations are shaped by the filmmaker or the stars involved in the film or at most the subject if it is interesting. That’s why I began by saying that the expectations from PS are unprecedented and at a super high level.

At another level, the expectations around PS have also been heightened due to the many folklores associated with the film. Like how MGR wanted to make the film in his heydays and bought the rights for the same but couldn’t. Like how Kamal Haasan had intended to make the film but had to drop the idea for many reasons. Like how Rajinikanth who was so impressed with the book, wanted the Neelambari character in Padayappa to be similar to the Nandini character in PS. Like how Mani himself had planned before but couldn’t put together the project then.

In my opinion, if Mani could pull off the project now, he must thank the ace filmmaker S.S.Rajamouli for the same. The success of Baahubali which came in two parts in 2015 and 2017 is what opened the doors or rather eyes and minds of many filmmakers to dream big of mega-budget projects even in regional languages and make a success of it. Incidentally, the story of Baahubali is loosely adapted from Ponniyin Selvan with its palace intrigues, royal family rivalry, love interests et al.

With this kind of background, it is not surprising that those who got the opportunity to be a part of Mani’s Ponniyin Selvan mega project are overwhelmed while those who are not, are feeling a sense of losing out. We heard that Superstar Rajinikanth himself volunteered to be part of the cast of PS even if the role was a minor one. However, director Mani Ratnam did not take that bait and rightly so. If Rajini was part of the cast, the whole narrative of the film would have been that of a “Superstar” film. Presently the film has a huge star cast with some big names like Vikram, Karthi, Prabhu, Aishwarya, Trisha, etc… but none as big as Rajini or Vijay or Kamal to make it “their” film. The narrative continues to stay firmly about the film and its maker.

Usually, the producers deploy a few marketing ideas to promote the film. But I noticed that the makers of Ponniyin Selvan apart from the usual ideas have come up with a few new ideas as well. The release of context videos of that Chola era to create awareness about the setting, I thought was a novel idea. Also, I see that most of the stars in the cast have changed their Twitter handles to their Ponniyin Selvan character names. Getting under the skin of the characters has taken a different dimension totally.

While on marketing, the Ponniyin Selvan buzz has spun off its own commerce. Like the launch of a card game based on Ponniyin Selvan which is a World’s first it seems. Like the idea of “Follow the Ponniyin Selvan” trail launched by Tamil Nadu Tourism with an idea to explore the historical sites where major events in the novel take place. Like coming up with a video that narrates the Ponniyin Selvan story in about one hour by Youtuber Ungal Anban Hemanth which in fact is close to getting 1 million views as I write this. Like releasing the audio version of the English version of Ponniyin Selvan to cash in on the buzz.

With just exactly 5 days for the film to hit the big screens, I am certain that the film will get a huge opening in Tamil Nadu and probably Southern States. Thanks to the large Tamil NRI population, it will draw a good opening abroad as well. I am still not sure if it will be seen as a Pan-Indian film and will draw the non-Tamil speaking crowd to watch the film in the Hindi heartland. For that to happen, the word-of-mouth feedback in the initial week needs to be strong just like it was for Baahubali -1. A good response to the first part will automatically bring the crowds to the second part.

At a time when there is a huge debate around people coming to theatres to watch a film Vs watching on OTT, the high-interest Ponniyin Selvan has triggered says something. That there is a type of content for which the audience will still come to the theatres. Ponniyin Selvan is coming and by this time next week, we will know what shape Mani Ratnam, the master craftsman has given to the epic. I for one am eagerly looking forward and I look forward to writing my flash review of it.

Postscript: In 2021, Rajinikanth’s daughter Soundarya announced a web series on Ponniyin Selvan. Wonder what’s happening to it now.

Takeaways on the takeaways from the 2022 election results!

The long election season in India came to an end last week and the results are in line with my forecast in all states except Goa where I thought that BJP will be shunted out this time.

We have been fed with a surfeit of analyses and takeaways by commentators of all hue by way of articles, videos and podcasts. I don’t want to further add to that cacophony by posting my takeaways on the election results.  However, I am unable to resist listing my key takeaways on the takeaways of the experts themselves. And here we go:

  1. “Switch” Bharat Abhiyan doesn’t stick: Just before the elections were announced in the UP, we saw a big number of defections mostly from the BJP to SP. These were interpreted by pundits as a pointer to the way the political wind was blowing.  In the end however, out of the 21 turncoats who shifted from BJP to SP just before the polls, only 4 won.  The big name among this was Swami Prasad Maurya who hogged headlines for at least a week. He lost his own seat. So, the message is, when leaders leave a party just before polls claiming to have not been given justice blah, blah, the reality could be different.  They might have sensed that the party may drop them from the contestants list due to their poor performance.  We saw this in Bengal also when few leaders jumped from TMC to BJP and they all mostly lost. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan may still be a work In progress but, this “Switch” Bharat Abhiyan is mostly still born!
  1. Differentiate between “Voting” public and “Vocal” public: Reporters doing ground reports often get carried away by the “Vocal” electorate and come to a conclusion for the entire “Voting” electorate. Here, I would like to give an analogy from marketing. When a product or service doesn’t meet the consumer’s expectations, it is very common for him/her to put it out on social media or talk to others about it. But, when the product or service is good and meet the expectations, consumers seldom talk to others or post a review. Negative WOM (Word of Mouth) always trumps positive WOM. It is the same case with voters, I feel. There could be those voters who are not happy with a party and hence tend to be vocal in front of the camera. But, there could be a larger section of voters who could be happy with a government and don’t bother to say anything to reporters. Coming to a conclusion in favour of the vocal public like many commentators did in the recent UP elections is fraught with a high probability of going wrong.
  1. Covid is not Government’s creation: In the run up to the polls and even later, we kept hearing experts talking about how UP government mismanaged Covid and how people will vote out the incumbent BJP government because of that. My point is, if Covid was mismanaged, it was mismanaged by all countries, all states and all administrations all over the world. I don’t think there is any administration that came out covering itself in glory in managing Covid. Even in India, if UP mismanaged Covid, so did Delhi, Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and so on. But commentators were rifle focussed in talking about Covid mismanagement only in UP while not referring to the same in other states. And the larger point is, the common public did not think that Covid was a creation of the Modi Government at the centre or for that matter any state government. Even in West Bengal elections or in Bihar elections, at the peak of the first wave, people did not punish the incumbent governments over Covid. I think there is a clear resignation among public that Covid was a pandemic not created by the governments and that the governments were trying to do their best with their backs against the wall.
  1. Pro-Incumbency doesn’t mean Anti-Incumbency is over: Since BJP won 4 out of 5 states in this round and sort of retained power in all these states, there is an opinion that the time of Anti-Incumbency is over and it’s the time of Pro-Incumbency. Well, this is only partially true in my opinion. Anti-Incumbency is over only if the incumbent is not Congress. The Congress still manages successfully to succumb to Anti-Incumbency in the states they rule. I am not saying this just because Congress lost Punjab this time where it was incumbent. In the recent past, Congress managed to lose power in states like Pondicherry (2021), Karnataka (2018), Tripura (2018), Himachal Pradesh (2017) and so on.  Yes, other parties have learnt to overcome Anti-Incumbency by mastering the art of governance and delivery like TMC in Bengal (2021), LDF in Kerala (2021), AAP in Delhi (2020), BJD in Odissa (2019), BJP in Gujarat (2018) and now in four states to sight a few examples.  But not the Congress. There is not a single state where Congress has managed to retain the state by demonstrating good governance and thereby projecting a case for Pro-Incumbency. The antithesis from here is that unlike in the past when Anti-incumbency was peddled as an acceptable excuse for losing power by an incumbent government, presently, Anti-Incumbency cannot be an acceptable ruse for a defeat.
  1. Marketing works only if the product is half good: In the beginning of the UP campaign, commentators were talking of how Priyanka Gandhi was running an exceptional campaign in UP with women at the core of the pitch. ‘Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon’ (LHLSH) was hailed as a brilliant campaign. We now know the outcome of that campaign. Even during the campaign, key women faces of the program jumped ship. Any great campaign cannot save a poor or an average product.  So, I was surprised that commentators were getting carried away by the LHLSH slogan and were expecting Congress to make an impact. To me, it was of no surprise that the campaign lost steam midway.  Same can be said of TMC in Goa where the marketing muscle and resources couldn’t muster a single seat.
  1. In Election Arithmetic, 1+1+1 is not 3: Too many commentators have this habit of summing up individual party’s vote shares in the previous elections to forecast the vote share of an alliance in future elections. As we have seen repeatedly, 1+1+1 need not be 3. It can be 4, if the alliance is on the right side of winning and can be 0.5 if it’s the wrong side of winning. For example, just because RLD tied up with SP this time, the entire JAT vote didn’t shift to SP combine as we were told by experts.
  1. Day-today issues Vs Electoral issues: Increasingly I am seeing that reporters and experts talk to people on the streets on their issues and tend to conclude that they are key “electoral” issues based on which voters would eventually vote for a party. For example, in UP, commentators were talking of “stray cattle” as a big poll issue going against the BJP government. It is obvious to anyone as daylight that BJP as a party will never get punished for an issue like “stray cattle” that too when Yogi Adityanath who has been a votary of Cow protection is the Chief Minister. Also, can anyone tell me when Mehengayee (Price increase) and Berozgaari (Unemployment) have not been issues in India? These have been perennial issues in India and at least in the last 30 years, voters have not started voting for or against a party on these issues.  These issues are taken as given and voters weigh in their mind as to which party can provide them with more opportunities to get over these issues rather than tackle these issues per se.  

In India, elections come sooner than IPL. Just as we finish this round, we will have the next round of state elections towards the end of the year. And if you just kept hearing that UP is the most crucial test for BJP in the last few months, you will soon start hearing that Gujarat is the ultimate test for BJP and Modi in the run up to 2024. And the question, “Is 2024 a done deal for the BJP?” will keep coming up till the exit polls of 2024!!

Cartoon credit: Manjul

The Anti-Climax of a Rajinikanth Film!

First up, I haven’t seen Annaatthe – Rajinikanth’s latest film to have hit the big screens all over the world during the festive Deepavali week. So, this is not “My Flash Review” of the film. However ever since the film got released on the 4th, I have seen quite a few reviews – both of the professional reviewers and the social media type. And mostly they have not been charitable about the film. In fact, they have all trashed the film. Herein lies a tale of irony.

Among the Tamil speaking audience not just in Tamil Nadu but all over the world, Rajinikanth has been a huge phenomenon for many years now. No other star has been able to get the kind of adulation he gets, till now. In fact, over the years his appeal has spread to other South Indian states and now even to other parts of India.  So, when a Rajini film is about to be released, there is this huge expectation. And this expectation gets hyped up and amplified in the new age digital era with the release of First looks, Teasers, Singles, Trailers and Making videos which flood our screens before the release through well-orchestrated PR campaigns.

One would argue that the trend is the same for all popular stars today who use social media to the hilt to create a buzz before release. But in the case of a Rajini film, other than the hard core fans (which every star can boast of), the excitement extends beyond his loyal fans. It extends to common public, youth, children, elders and even IT Professionals!  The countdown starts as soon as the release date is announced.

First there is frenzy and craze for booking the tickets for the opening weekend and then there is this craze for the FDFS (First Day First Show) tickets. The whole experience of watching a Rajini film wherever in the world FDFS is completely different. Since this has been written often enough, I am not dwelling into the same here. And those who watch the film FDFS also take it upon themselves the onerous responsibility of giving a ball by ball update of the film from inside the theatres through social media with pictures, clips and what not. The result – the verdict on the film is almost out within three hours of the release. The irony of Rajini films in the recent past has been this “Verdict”.

The fact of the matter is since the film Sivaji – The Boss in 2007, we are yet to see a fully enjoyable “Rajini padam”. Enthiran was also good and enjoyable but I would call it as a Shankar film rather than a Rajini film. If you see the films since then which are Lingaa, Kabali, Kaala, 2.0, Petta, Darbar and now Annaatthe we can see  a pattern. A pattern of the films weighed down by some huge expectations and then flattering to deceive. I am not getting into the debate of Box Office collections or profits these films made because they are subject to interpretations and fair data are seldom available in open domain. We can’t get into conclusions with the available “convenient” data.  So, instead of calling them as flops or failures, let me call them as “Underwhelming” films.

In the above seven films, Ranjith’s films – Kabali and Kaala were disappointing not for the same reasons as the other five. Ranjith tried to capitalise on the Rajini persona with a matching character, imagined Rajini and cast based on his actual or close to actual age and did not make him dance and prance with heroines one third his age. The problem in these films as per me was Ranjith not knowing what to do in the screenplay while untying the knots at the end, resulting in both films promising a lot but leaving us disappointed at the end.

The other five films can be grouped together and they suffered from what I call as the “Fan Boy Director” syndrome.  The directors of these films namely K.S.Ravikumar, Karthik Subbaraj, A.R.Murugadoss and now Siva see themselves as fiercest fans of Rajini first and then as his director. And herein lies the problem. When they wear their fan boy hats, they only see the form of Rajini which they enjoyed way back in the 90’s.  The script takes a backseat. Showing Rajini as this larger than life mass hero of the 90’s takes prominence. In my opinion, this concept is done to death in movies like Annamalai, Baasha, Muthu, Padayappa, Yajaman and in even Arunachalam where a template of “Riches to Rags to Riches” (R3) formula was used to good effect.

We are in 2021. In my opinion, only those in the age bracket of 40-60’s now can relate to the 90’s nostalgically like the directors. Children in the teens today were not born then and they can’t understand the brouhaha over a film like Yajaman!  Similarly the youth in the 20’s and probably 30’s were toddlers then and so cannot relate to the Rajini –Meena romance in Muthu or a Rajini-Khushbu kadavule kadavule chemistry in Annamalai.

This is the BTS (Bangstan Boys) or PUBG generation. To them, trying to bring back the nostalgia of the 80’s and 90’s by rehashing some of the earlier themes in my opinion just doesn’t work. Even for those in the 50’s, having seen many of Rajini’s films in the past, we would like to see him in substantive roles rather than doing the same thing again and again. Here, I would also like to add that it is not necessary that in these times of feminism, social media activism and wokeism, yesteryear super-duper hits of Rajini like Padayappa and Annamalai may meet with the same response today.  Some of these films haven’t aged well, frankly.

I would suggest therefore, that Rajini provided his health permitting, follows the playbook of Amitabh Bachchan who still rules Bollywood but, qualitatively and not quantitatively.  Following the footsteps of Amitabh is nothing new for Rajini. In the 70’s and 80’s many of Rajini’s super hits in Tamil were remakes of the “Angry Young Man” films of Amitabh. Just that when Amitabh’s glory as a hero waned off in the 90’s, Rajini had to look elsewhere for his scripts and landed up with the “R3” template.

Today, Amitabh is not necessarily cast as the main protagonist but is always cast in a role in which he can make a difference.  Which means that directors finish the script and approach him for casting if he is suited for it and not the other way about as it is the case for Rajini today. Mostly, directors and producers get the nod from Rajini based on a broad story line and then they try to fit in Rajini, the mass hero into a templated script. This also means casting the most popular lady as the heroine invariably, crowding the film with popular co-actors whether the script demands or not,  filling in with frivolous comedy tracks thereby shooting the budget to astronomical proportions. This in turn raises the expectations of the entire supply chain and as we have seen, the film wilts under the weight of its own expectations.

Even in the last few films, one thing which is still going, is Rajinikanth himself.  No one is still questioning the power of his screen presence or his energy or even his capability. What is under scanner for sure is his judgement of scripts and roles. So, at the December of his career, Rajinikanth can decide to write the climax of his career differently by being more discreet and choosy. After all, we don’t want this climax to become an Anti-Climax!

Tata…, Air India!

The last time I flew Air India was before the pandemic to Shanghai from Delhi and return. The reason to fly Air India was obvious. There were no direct flights from Mumbai to Shanghai (Yes, surprise of surprise, after Jet Airways stopped flying this sector) and to save time on transit, it made better sense to fly to Delhi and take the direct flight to Shanghai. For most of us, the reason to opt for Air India for international flights, particularly when travelling for business/work would be this.  In the absence of a better option and not necessarily being the first choice.

The other set of non-business travelers from India (Students, Senior Citizens, vacationers) opt for Air India for cheaper fares or the extra baggage allowance which comes handy.  In the past one or two decades, rarely I have seen or heard anyone opting to fly Air India for its superior service or for the flying experience.  And herein lies the sad and sordid tale of Air India as a National carrier of India. If this is the situation with Indians, one can imagine where Air India would stack up in the minds of foreigners.

The situation was not so bad all along for Air India. During my MBA days, way back in 1990, we did a survey of air travelers in Mumbai as part of a marketing project. International travel was not common those days as it is now. I vividly remember that Air India fared very well in terms of perception and I guess those were the heady days for the Maharaja. But in the subsequent years as International air travel picked up and when the market was actually exploding in India post liberalisation, Air India was imploding.

The reasons for the rot in Air India have been chronicled well in Jitender Bhargava’s (Former Executive Director of Air India) book – The Descent of Air India. In a deadly cocktail of an indifferent and unaccountable Top management, political interference and string pulling and a demotivated and tired staff, there was only one direction the airline was heading – southwards. Of course, he argues that the descent was accelerated by ill-timed and ill-advised decisions including purchase of new fleet at uncompetitive prices and signing of non-profitable bilateral agreements during the UPA regime.  Irrespective of the political regime, it is a known fact that PSUs like Air India and ITDC were treated like personal fiefdoms by both the executive and the bureaucracy to further their own personal interests.

Now and then, different governments have tried to revive Air India by blowing money on marketing campaigns and taking advantage of exclusive route agreements.  The Air India marketing campaigns have always been top notch. But as I have said before, the best marketing campaigns cannot save a floundering product. Some of the attractive routes, Delhi-San Francisco for example, are profitable and well sought after by Indians but such far and few successes in between cannot sustain a full airline.

The present sad state of affairs at Air India, the losses it has accumulated, the capital it guzzles on a monthly basis, the struggles of the staff in getting salaries on time etc. have been documented well overall and hence not repeating those points here. Enough to say that if there was any company which the Government of India should disinvest and exit in a hurry, it was Air India. So after a few attempts in that direction right from the first time under the Vajpayee’s regime to Modi’s current run, finally the disinvestment of Air India is a reality.

 

Air India is Ghar Wapsi for the Tatas. The story of how Tata Airlines became Air India by a forced nationalisation is also well documented. It will be interesting to observe how the Tatas embrace Air India and more importantly turn it around quickly. For Ratan Tata, there is an emotional connect with Air India. But then, we know how just having emotional connect doesn’t help in business. It calls for a Himalayan effort to start from scratch, change the culture, compete and build a world class airline. Tatas of course is not new to the airline business. They have been running Vistara in a joint venture with Singapore Airlines for some time now. Tatas also have investments going in Air Asia – a regional airline. But then, taking over a fledgling Airline like Air India and turning it around is another cup of Tetley tea!

Airline business is one business which is CAPEX intensive and OPEX intensive at the same time. There are businesses which are highly CAPEX intensive but once done, do not incur high operational costs (Like the mobile telephony business). There are businesses that don’t require high CAPEX investments but need working capital and operational efficiencies to remain afloat and profitable (Like trading businesses). Airline business is one which demands very high CAPEX investments (Planes, slots, infrastructure etc…), high operational costs on a daily basis (fuel, high salaries, marketing etc.) and require operational efficiencies of the highest order in order to be profitable. The moving parts are so many that with one wrong move, the business can get into a crisis mode. Ask Vijay Mallya or Naresh Goyal. This is one of the reasons why we have seen so many airlines folding up in India itself ever since the skies were opened up to private players.

In Airline parlance, there are this headwinds and tailwinds. Tailwinds propel the flights and headwinds have the opposite effect. In he history of Air India as a business though, it has seen only headwinds.

I am certain that Tatas would have obviously done their homework that too extensively, before bidding for Air India. Now that they have won, they have their task cut out. There are many things going for them, on top being the good will of Indians in general towards Tatas. That’s why we didn’t see much of opposition to the announcement of Air India being sold to the Tatas. With “revenge travel” post Covid expected to take off, the timing is just right for Tatas to soar into the Indian skies with Air India N.0! I am personally looking forward to the day when I would opt for Tata-Air India as my first and only choice when I fly abroad. For now, it’s Tata, Air India from GOI and as Amul says, a “Good Buy for Tata”!

Post Script: Interestingly, the Air India Staff Union expressed its happiness over Tatas winning the Air India bid! When was the last time a staff union was happy over privatisation in India? And when was the last time we saw no noise from the Left over privatisation?  Acche Din are here, guys!

Olympics and Sports as a great Unifier!

The Tokyo Olympics 2020 which got delayed by a year due to Covid, finally got over today. The Indian effort at the Olympics culminated in a flourish with Neeraj Chopra winning the Gold in Javelin throw. All these years, after every Olympics, the commentary has been about how a country of 1.3 billon cannot win even one Gold.  Or for that matter how small countries like Kenya and Spain can win more medals than India. This time, we will be spared of the usual diatribe or so I hope. For, we won a Gold that too in a track and field event for the 1st time. With a total tally of seven medals that included two Silvers and four bronzes, this is our best outing in an Olympics. Not just that, we missed a handful of bronzes by a whisker.

At a time when the whole country has been going through a challenging phase for more than one year tackling Covid and its spiralling after effects, the encouraging performance of our contingent at the Tokyo games came as a whiff of fresh air. We almost forgot to track the everyday Covid statistics of daily new infections, number of deaths and the R-Factor etc.  The media as well, which is what steers our attention usually on a day to day basis, gave more coverage to the games rather than the usual stories.  For a change, WhatsApp groups were buzzing with forwards related to the lives of the winners at the Olympics. And for once a Javelin throw was being watched by many Indians when a Test match was going on in parallel!

I have not seen this kind of frenzy for following Olympics as we saw this time, ever before. This kind of excitement and passion is usually reserved for Cricket in India. With Cricket of course, the craze and following have been for a long while.  For instance, an Indo-Pak Cricket encounter at any level can bring India to a grinding halt. Cutting across geographies, religion, caste, creed, language, gender and social strata, a World Cup Cricket match and that too if between India and Pakistan unifies India like no other.

What we have seen in the last few days with Olympics has shown that the Indian passion for Cricket need not be exclusive. People’s passion will follow wherever we win or succeed. For long, it has been ingrained in our minds that “Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar”. But the other part is the question of National Pride. The number of times the clip of Neeraj Chopra on the podium with the National Anthem being played in the background, got shared on Social Media since yesterday is a testimony to this.

The general commentary or narrative has been that we Indians only support or cheer Cricket and that is the cause for other sports not flourishing. While this could be true, it is only partly true if at all. I am of the opinion that as Aam Admi, what we chase is not Cricket, but National Pride. For a long time that National Pride has been bestowed upon us by our repeated success in Cricket. So, we became a Cricket crazy country.

Make no mistake. If our Indian Hockey takes off from what we have achieved at the Tokyo Olympics, fan following, attention and of course money will chase Indian Hockey too. Same is the case with other sports as well.  Well, defending India’s craze for Cricket versus other sports is not the purpose of this blog. But trying to articulate that any sport or for that matter any event that arouses National Pride can be a great Unifier in a diverse country like India, is.

That is why I find questions often raised on why India should spend its money and resources on the Chandrayaan and Mangalyaan missions while millions languish in poverty, to be ill founded. We have seen how landing its men on the moon first successfully with the Apollo mission tilted the scales of National pride in the US during the Cold war period.

Similarly, I saw some questions being raised as to why Orissa state should spend its money on sponsoring the Indian Hockey Team instead of focussing on its own state’s players. If by spending that money, Orissa has enabled the revival of India’s fortunes on the world stage as how we saw in the Olympics, it is certainly worth it.  The National Pride that got aroused thanks to the performances of the men’s and women’s Hockey at the Olympics is priceless. For everything else there could be a MasterCard. And Naveen Patnaik the shrewd politician he is, has understood this well and took a call to back the Indian Hockey teams when no one else did.

As I had written in my 2016 piece post Rio Olympics (Read here), availability of financial resources is a key factor in winning more medals.  So, with the backing of sponsors, talented sportsmen can get access to the best – whether it is coaching staff or equipment or infrastructure. We have seen this in the flourishing of a Neeraj or a Sindhu or a Saina! What Orissa has done or a few other brands have done is an eye opener for many including other States, Centre and Corporations to pick up a sport or sportsmen and back them to the hilt. The returns on this investment by way of National Pride and the associated brand recall is beyond comprehension in a spreadsheet.

And no one else understands the power of National Pride than Narendra Modi. Each and every phone call he makes to a winner is because of this understanding, the after effect of it, we will see in 2024.

Postscript: The next Olympics is in 2024 😃😃

2021 State Elections – My Flash Take aways!

This round of elections in five states is finally over today and India will get a break from being in election mode for a year.  It’s been too long an election process that, everything else took a back seat including our war on Covid.  The counting is still on as I write this but the broad trends are clear. Since there are pundits galore in theorising on the results, I will skip that for the moment. Instead, in this post, I would like to list a few take aways on the whole elections, not just the results of this round of elections.

Here we go:

  • Anti-Incumbency as the pièce de résistance among theories for explaining a result is passé: In the past, analysts would always just dismiss any defeat of an incumbent government by ascribing to “Anti-Incumbency” as if it was extremely legitimate and acceptable. A few decades ago, it is true that incumbent governments were thrown out 7 out of 10 times. But, that’s no more the case. As we have seen in this round, 3 out of 5 governments have been re-elected. In Bengal, TMC has won a third consecutive term. It all boils down to quality of governance and what people feel about the next best option.  Anti-Incumbency is no more an excuse. And Pro-Incumbency is a virtue.
  • Hawa, Leher, Mahoul exist only in the minds of commentators: This is increasingly becoming the case in social media driven journalism. As we saw in UP in 2017, Karnataka in 2018 and now Bengal this time, mainstream media and social media can create their own “Waves” and “Hawa” that is far away from situation on the ground. So, making predictions and conclusions based on social media trends, Youtubers’ narratives and mainstream media commentary is fraught with a lot of risks.
  • Opinion Polls and Exit Polls are for entertainment only: This we have seen time and again now and doesn’t need much explanation. For almost all agencies, getting the polls right has a huge amount of luck riding on it. If they get it right, it’s their day. That’s all. In a diversified country like ours, statistical samples however scientific they are, have proven to be inconclusive. So, opinion polls and exit polls are a lottery. Even in this round, no agency predicted the scale of Mamata win and almost all predicted a tough fight.
  • Voters vote for Lok Sabha and State polls on their own merits: This is getting very conclusive by every election. In one of my earlier articles for Newslaundry (Read here), I had explained this with quite a few examples. In this round as well, we can see this aspect quite established in Bengal and Kerala.
  • Time for building consensus around One Nation – One Poll: This is linked to my last point as well. Now that we can see clearly that voters are indeed intelligent and vote as per merit in Lok Sabha and state elections, many of the regional parties and even the Congress which have their apprehensions that it will be only “Advantage BJP” if India opts for simultaneous elections, should shed the same and have a re-think for the sake of larger national interest. It is obvious that elections every year or twice a year are a huge distraction for governance. Also it is a drag on the resources for any government. Both the government and the parties can save a lot of money and time if we have simultaneous elections. Of course, it is not as easy as it sounds, but there should be a national debate on the same and a consensus built around this so that at least in the next 10 years we can move in this direction. My personal opinion is, if not simultaneous polls, at least we should move towards “One Nation, Two polls” by having Lok Sabha Polls once and all State polls together after 2.5 years.
  • Limit the number of phases to 3 or 4 for any state: I don’t think there is any country in the world that conducts its elections over two months in eight long phases. The phase wise polling was conceived by T.N.Seshan when he was the Chief Election Commission mainly to counter violence and election related mal practices so that the EC can muster central forces and conduct free and fair polls. But those were the days of ballot papers where the chances of rigging were higher. Also in today’s times of EVMs and of course prevalence of Smart technology, ways and means need to be found for conducting free and fair elections in 3 or 4 phases in any state and eventually one phase.
  • Limit for expenses in an election is a joke: It is high time, the limits are re-visited. Also new limits need be prescribed for self, party and total expenses. It wll be good to take a look at best practices in other democratic countries on this and come up with a model for future.
  • Huge market opens up for political strategists and IPAC type organisations: This is not a new take away based on today’s results. But today’s results cement this proposition beyond doubt. It is no longer enough for parties to depend on their loyal karyakartas to carry our ground work. Parties need strategists and organisations to hold a mirror to them and carry out smart work in the field using data, analytics, technology and tools. It is not that an external strategist or marketing can save a bad product. But even a good product in today’s competitive times need adequate marketing cover. And therefore, the market for political strategists and political consulting companies in India has expanded. So it is as a career for youngsters in election management and related marketing. And Marketing works.
  • Last but not the least, EVMs are not instruments in the hands of those in power: I hope the debate around EVMs is put to rest conclusively now that opposition has also won spectacularly.

As you can see half of the points are related to the way elections are being conducted in India. After a round of reforms which Seshan initiated during his tenure, we have not seen much of electoral reforms. It is now time for the country to build consensus around electoral reforms and introduce them to keep our status as a vibrant democracy.

Image Courtesy: Firstpost.