Month: April 2021

Covid – Contending with the Waves of Uncertainty!

If at all there has been one thing which is consistent with Covid, it is its remarkable inconsistency.  From the time Covid entered our collective lexicon in February last year, every theory or conclusion related to its behaviour has been found to be inconsistent or invalid very soon after.  Like India was never affected by Bird flu or SARS virus, so we will not be affected by Corona virus (See the situation today). India is a hot country and in peak summers, Virus cannot survive (It did hit us through the last summer). India will be spared as we have better immunity for many diseases (Of course India was not spared).  During monsoons in places like Mumbai, Covid is going to create a havoc (There was no specific spike during monsoons).  Masks are required only if you have symptoms but hand washing and sanitising are most important to prevent the spread (Today, it seems it is the other way – Masks are most important and hand washing is not that important).  Once vaccines are found, that will be the end game for Covid (Vaccines were indeed found but the end game is still not in sight).  Once you take the two doses, you are safe (Now the latest theory is, we may have to take vaccines every year!). This was just to list a few theories on Covid which have got negated along the way.

We must keep this in perspective when we make our judgement on the way the municipal administration or State governments or the Central government or the Prime Minister have handled what is now called as the 2nd wave in India. Let us all be honest. Since the dawn of this New Year, all of us have in some way or other started moving towards leading a normal, pre-Covid life. We started – travelling out of our cities, taking vacation breaks, working from Office, wining and dining out, going to places of worship, having social get togethers, planning for house functions and getting domestic helps back in our houses, to mention a few normal/pre-Covid activities.

All of us were keen to put Covid behind us and lead a normal life. We all understand that it is important for economy to get back to normal which can only happen if consumption in all spheres get back to normal. We were all happy when GST figures reached pre-Covid levels and were delighted when it started exceeding pre-Covid numbers. All this when we also got the news that vaccines were available and we could see some light at the end of the Covid tunnel. We all celebrated and rejoiced about how India came out unscathed on Covid.

What we did at individual levels, companies did at their level as well with respect to businesses. And similarly the administration and Government did at their levels. In this period, we must not forget that farmer protests which in normal Covid times could be super spreader events were going on in most parts of North India. Yet, we didn’t see any spike in Punjab or Delhi or other states where farmers in large numbers were protesting taking limited or no Covid precautions. A full test match was held in Chennai with spectators watching it and there was no spike after that. Looking at these I guess, the Election Commission went ahead with the conduct of the polls in the five states in March and April. Ditto for the Uttarakhand government for the Khumb festival.  We all lowered our guard. Not just the government.

Today, however in India, we have been savaged by a Covid Tsunami. So, what we see all around are depressing news about deaths, sufferings and other collateral issues, all related to Covid. We have been hit by a lethal second wave which none of us saw it coming. This is where the first failure of the epidemiologists, experts and relevant authorities in the administration come into picture. All the while in the 1st Quarter of this year, I only saw experts explaining how India has flattened the curve and how we were moving towards herd immunity.  So, when other countries like the UK, USA and a few European countries were hit by a second wave, why was there no alert from the experts of a potential second wave in India?

In the mid of March, we could see suddenly numbers rising in states like Maharashtra and Kerala without any specific trigger like a super spreader event. When at that time, a few were enquiring with me on what’s happening in Mumbai, I mentioned that it is only a question of time the numbers start going up in other cities/states. And that’s what happened. So, when a person like me without looking at any regression models or analysis could predict that we are up to an imminent spike in numbers, how come the state governments and Central government did not realise that we are walking into a sudden burst if precautions are not put in place immediately.

Even in the 3rd week of March, if the Election Commission had announced strict regulations on campaigning or Khumb was made symbolic as it was done eventually, things would have been different. Or if all states including Maharashtra started what it is doing today in terms of restricting movements, we could have avoided the crisis. This is the second issue.

As some wise man said, “Before, you are wise. After, you are wise. In between, you are otherwise!” In hindsight everyone is God. Anyway, today lock downs have been put in place and I am sure, the numbers will start coming down in the next 4 weeks. Already the numbers in Mumbai are showing a declining trend day by day. But, once we reach a trough, again it will be time for “Unlock 2.0”. When that happens, we may once again at some point of time witness a third wave, unless by that time we have vaccinated a reasonable mass of people.

It is clear therefore that the key to prevent further waves, is vaccination. Or so we hope at this point in time, unless even this theory gets demolished. It is now apparent that the vaccination roll out has been patchy.  Just six weeks into opening up of the vaccination program to public, we have a shortage of both the vaccines.  And I am not joining the chorus of why India exported vaccines when we should have used it for Indians first. The external affairs minister has articulated recently that if we do not support other countries, we cannot expect support from other countries for supply of raw materials. This could be the official line. But the main reason why the government also decided on exports initially was the shelf life, in my opinion. The government cannot give this reason out for obvious reasons.

The shelf life of Covishield is six months from the date of production. As per Serum institute, by the end of December, it had already produced about 50 million doses of the vaccine. I must add here that it had started producing and piling up inventory even before the official approvals. Since the vaccination roll out in India was planned to be in phases starting first with the health and frontline workers for obvious reasons, the stock would not have been consumed before the expiry. Hence, exports meant to serve triple purposes as per me. Consumption before expiry, generation of good will with Vax diplomacy and fulfilment of commercial and licence related contracts for Serum.

A committee under Niti Aayog has been entrusted with the roll out of the vaccination program and it appears that the whole plan was based on “let’s cross the bridge when we get there”. How else can we explain the fact that the Central government had not secured supplies for the vaccine from the two approved sources at least to cover 60% of the adult population right at the beginning? Why is it that the companies were not committed working capital support right at the contract signing stage? If there was a clear plan of sharing of responsibility between Centre and states, it was never made transparent. And today we see that the whole vaccination has been opened up but without ensuring supply. From vaccine hesitancy, it is now a rush for vaccine. It is going to take at least till June for stabilisation of supplies. To me, more than not anticipating the second wave or being lax on taking actions after witnessing the second wave, the ill preparedness of the government on the vaccination roll out is the main issue.

While it is now clear that we as a country have landed our foot into a second wave land mine, the last thing we should see is politicking over this and the never ending blame game between the Centre and states. It is high time that the Centre and states work together in diffusing the crisis rather than pointing fingers on who is wrong at this stage. This is a collective failure of all of us, the society, the administration, the domain experts, the State and the Central government.  As common public we must now learn to be cautious throughout even if we have taken the vaccine, control our instincts to get back to normal lives soon and learn to deal with what could be waves of uncertainty in the coming months.

Having said that, in terms of accountability, the buck of course stops at the top, which is the Prime Minister. He must now quickly move towards establishing a separate ministry for Covid and have a competent minister and set of bureaucrats to man the same.  This ministry should be tasked with all activities related to Covid as an umbrella entity. Being pro-active should be the core mantra for this entity.  It should be acting on a WAAR footing – Watch – Anticipate – Act – Repeat.

As we have seen, unless we get out of Covid quickly, lives and livelihoods will be under jeopardy – caught in the ensuing waves of uncertainty.

Pic Courtesy: India Today

Rajinikanth – Destiny’s Own Child?

This piece was written for the News site – The News Minute and was carried on 2nd April, 2021. It can be read here:

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/why-rajinikanths-dadasaheb-phalke-award-richly-deserved-146395

It was few days into June in the year 2007 in Mumbai. Those were heady days for the Indian economy with frenetic activity in retail, real estate and in fact almost all spheres in India. Malls and multiplexes within them were the cool things those days. In the midst of that, I saw some huge excitement around the release of a Tamil film in Mumbai, probably for the first time.  FM Radio stations were talking non-stop of that film, adding to the build-up. The film was Sivaji – The Boss, directed by Shankar and the reason for the excitement was Rajinikanth, who by then had transcended the Southern borders and was a phenomenon across the country in what I would say the phase-4 of his still running career.

The film got a huge theatrical release even in Mumbai.  When I went to watch the film over the weekend at the nearby multiplex, there were kids, teenagers, young couples, middle aged folks and senior citizens of all hue, who had thronged to watch the film. The buzz was palpable and unprecedented. I have not seen any other Indian actor who commands such a following across age groups, across class divide, across genders, in short across anything, till today.

I don’t think anyone would have foretold such a rise for Rajinikanth way back in 1975 when he literally “entered” into the world of films with Apoorva Raagangal pushing a huge gate in his entry scene. That scene in a sense remains metaphorical of his career in films. He had to push hard the prevailing stereotypes for an actor to establish himself in phase -1 of his career where he was doing support roles, many of which alongside Kamal Hassan, who was already an established star. Much credit is due to director K.Balachandar who saw something in him which others didn’t and mentored him as he evolved into a bankable hero. In this period, what made him stand him apart was not so much his acting prowess but, his screen presence and mannerisms which became to be branded as “Rajini style” in years to come.

The same “Rajini style” packaged with some raw energy on screen carried him through to become a sole hero in films in what will be the phase-2 in his career. Even as he started delivering hits as a hero, there were still questions around his acting skills. Comparisons naturally ensued. If it was MGR Vs. Shivaji in the previous era, it was Kamal Vs Rajini in that era. In those pre-social media times, there were endless arguments on who was better with Kamal camp emphasising on his versatile acting talent while the Rajini camp was pitching in for his wider appeal among masses. But given an opportunity by way of meaty roles, Rajini did prove himself as a consummate actor in films like Mullum Malarum,  Aarilirunthu Arubathu varai, Engeyo Ketta Kural, Thillu mullu to mention a few. Yet, Kamal, the “Class actor” Vs Rajini, the “Mass hero” debate went on unabated. After every film release of either of these stars, I remember our group of film buffs in our engineering college re-opening the debate and ending without a conclusion. There were no hashtags way back then to monitor the trends and announce victories.

It’s in the mid 90’s post Baasha, however, that something changed. Rajini’s appeal then started transcending all boundaries. Young and the old, privileged and not so privileged, urban and the rural, educated and not educated, men and women, Software geeks and accounting professionals – he endeared himself to one and all. Soon, Kamal Vs Rajini debates ceased to exist.  Rajini films were simply too entertaining and he himself became that mass entertainer. While most of Rajini’s films then followed a standard template of “riches to rags to riches” hero, in real life though, from one phase to another his career graph went only one way – Up.

From then on, what happened to him and his career are stuff that dreams are made of. Looking back, here was a guy who was defying all established norms and conventions for a Tamil film hero. Rajinikanth was not conventionally “good looking”. He was not fair skinned or even brown skinned – again a much needed specification for heroes at that time. His grip on the Tamil language and dialogue delivery were not up to the mark. He had not come from the “stage” background which was very common for most actors those days. He did not possess the best dancing skills either. And finally in terms of histrionic skills, there were better heroes around.  In short, he did not fit into the established grammar of a hero. Yet, he became the reigning Superstar of Tamil cinema. In all of these phases, he had the backing of talented screen writers and directors who knew how to package Rajinikanth on the big screen.

All the so called inadequacies didn’t prevent him from making a lasting impact on the audience. For sure, he picked up on his acting skills as time passed by.  He made up for the lack of everything else with his sheer screen presence. He turned his dialogue delivery style into his own with his baritone voice. On screen, he was always a man of high energy. And there was an element of style in his movements which people simply loved. In his own admission, more than his strengths, he was aware of his short comings and decided to work within them.  And more importantly like MGR, Rajini had the pulse of his fans. He was very choosy about the subjects he did and the film makers he worked with. While he was hands off in making of his films, in this phase, Rajini always had the final say on what made it to the final cut.

This phase -3 of Rajinikanth’s career is interesting in more ways than one. Before, commercial films were labelled “Masala films” a category in which Rajini ruled. With his films like Baasha, Muthu and Padayappa, Rajini now created the “Mass” film category and owned it for a long time. Mass films came with “Mass scenes” which became iconic.  Normal lines when mouthed by Rajini repeatedly in a film became punch dialogues.  Today, almost all stars across languages have made mass scenes and punch dialogues necessities in their films.

It is this mass adulation of whatever Rajini did, that pitch forked him to become the phenomenon he is today. Beyond the borders of Tamil Nadu or even South India, his films are eagerly awaited even in Non-Tamil speaking states of India. Not to forget the surprising admiration he earned in Japan since Muthu. It can be safely said that Rajinikanth is the biggest entertainer Tamil cinema has ever seen till today and he continues to be so.

At 70, Rajinikanth is at the December of his career. However he is not done yet. The opening his film like Kabali got, is the envy of many young stars. Even today, the expectations and the frenzy his new film release generates across all age groups are unmatched. The last few of his films might not have matched his all-time hits of the past due to poor story lines and screen play but, Rajini himself gave a good account for himself with his performances.

It’s only apt that the Government of India chose to honour Rajinikanth with the Dadasaheb Phalke Award now as he completes 45 years of stardom in cinema, that too without a break.   Notwithstanding the timing of the award which has set some tongues wagging, Rajinikanth the phenomenon truly deserved the Dadasaheb Phalke award or rather as the memes would go – Dadasaheb Phalke award truly deserved the Rajinikanth! After all, he is indeed Destiny’s own child, isn’t it?