In the last 2 months, India has been gripped by the UP (Uttar Pradesh) election fever. Or so the channels made us to believe. The huge size of the state notwithstanding it was certainly an overdose of analysis and punditry. And today was the Judgement day! And as I hammer away these words on the keyboard the people of UP have spoken and spoken decisively in favour of Narendra Modi and BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) strictly in that order. The build up to this day has been quite noisy. A diarrhea of analyses post each of the seven phases of polls in UP and then the pontifications in the last couple of days based on the Exit poll results. It was indeed intriguing to see commentators waxing eloquent on the emerging trends,.. just based on Exit poll results.
However it is important to note that none of the ground reports of even seasoned journalists or the Exit poll results captured the final end result which has panned out today. That of a massive groundswell in favour of Modi and BJP (again strictly in that order) in UP. To be fair a few like Rajdeep Sardesai and Dr. Prannoy Roy predicted a possible BJP win but not of this scale. We were again and again told by experts that there is no visible wave this time. And they were all right. Because in the lookout for a wave they completely missed a Tsunami of sorts brewing in the Ganges. In 2014 as well there was no wave prior to the elections. The overwhelming sweep of UP by BJP was then explained as a Modi wave post facto.
In election after election since Nov 8th (the day Modi let the so called Demonetisation Demon on Indians) whether they were municipal body elections or State/Parliamentary by elections voters did not punish Modi or the BJP for the wounds inflicted by the “Demon”. But even then, the narrative before these state polls was that Demonetisation is going to cost BJP dear in these elections and in particular in UP. UP elections were a clear referendum on Namo’s Demo as per media. But it turned out that Demo was a non-issue.
In channel after channel the experts who were dissecting the prospects in the run up to the polls were discussing caste arithmetic and how voters ultimately show loyalty to their castes. Particularly in the so called backward state like Uttar Pradesh. Analyst and researcher Dr. Surjit Bhalla has been consistently calling out since about 2014 that India has moved beyond the castes. But what we were routinely fed was how the Jats were pissed off with BJP or how the Yadavs will stick to SP and how the Dalits and Most Backwards will ride only the Elephant,…,… And how the upper castes and now backward will favour the BJP. And how the Yadavs, the Kushwahas, the Prajapatis, the Majhis,…,… will influence the voting pattern and hence the result. And in addition to the caste axis, we were told that there is a “Class Axis” which is building up.
However even a quick back of the envelope analysis of today’s results through any prism makes it clear that the caste loyalty of voters is history. And that probably UP must have put the communal divide behind as well. With 40%+ share of the vote and still counting, it is most likely that Muslims have indeed voted for BJP though not en masse. This can be borne out by the fact that Mayawati came out bewildered about the results and was posing conspiracy theories about possible EVM (Electronic Voting Machine) fraud. And today’s trends are also beyond the realm of Class divide.
My personal favourite line on India considering the complexity and diversity has been Shashi Tharoor’s “anything you say about India, the opposite is also true!!!” So it is extremely hazardous to come to a concrete conclusion that India has shed its Caste baggage based on just today’s result. But I guess it is safe to conclude that there is a churn which is happening particularly with the youth coming of their own. They don’t give a damn to the prejudiced thought lines of their parents/ancestors and are willing to look at things with a more balanced view. In the past 3 decades many regional parties which thrived on challenging Congress like the BSP, SP, RJD, TMC, JDU,… turned “Social Justice to Casteism” and “Secularism to Pro Minorityism”. After getting an opportunity to make a difference in UP, Bihar,.. where they failed now they are facing the brunt of the Nextgen voters. And BJP (and Modi) being the principal party now is happy to lap up and take advantage of this angst. Even in Bihar I am of the view the so called come back of Lalu is more because voters wanted Nitish back as CM and not due to some caste equations. And voters wanted Nitish back not because of his caste but due to his track record in changing Bihar.
Beyond the caste arithmetic of the Yadavs, Kurmis, Lingayats and the Vanniyars,…,…there is a wind of change blowing in India. It looks like only Modi and BJP again in that order have got a wind of this. Or may be even they haven’t got a complete grip on this. It is clear based on today’s early reactions that the other parties have not yet understood what hit them. Unless these parties and the commentariat (in that order) realise that an important churn is happening, we will continue to see parties getting caught off guard and expert analyses going awfully wrong. And that important churn is “In elections India no longer “Castes” it votes but casts its votes!!!
May be I’m jumping the gun. But would be happy if time proves me wrong.